2024年8月财政数据解读：财政收入与支出增速双回落

Revenue Analysis - In the first eight months of 2024, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value[1] - In August 2024, the national general public budget revenue was 12,113 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.8%, widening from -1.9% in the previous month[1] - Central government revenue in August fell by 3.8% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 2.3% previously; local government revenue decreased by 1.9%, compared to a decline of 1.5% previously[1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Major tax categories showed declines: consumption tax at -4.6%, personal income tax at -2.9%, and value-added tax at -1.7%, while corporate income tax increased by 20.0%[1] - The decline in value-added tax was less severe than the previous month, attributed to a low base effect from last year[1] - The corporate income tax's increase is likely temporary, influenced by the tax payment cycle, as August is typically a low month for corporate tax payments[1] Expenditure Trends - In August 2024, general public budget expenditure was approximately 18,000 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.7%, significantly below the seasonal average of 5.5%[1] - Infrastructure and livelihood-related expenditures saw notable declines, with infrastructure spending down by 12.8% and livelihood spending down by 7.8% compared to previous values of 12.6% and 1.8% respectively[1] - Debt service expenditures increased, which may limit the government's ability to spend on public services[1] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue in August decreased by 34.8% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer income being a major drag, down by 42.1%[1] - Government fund budget expenditure also fell by 14.0% year-on-year, widening from a previous decline of 5.2%[1] - The issuance of special bonds in August reached approximately 7,965 billion CNY, marking the largest monthly issuance in two years, but the cumulative issuance for the first eight months remains below last year's level[1] Overall Fiscal Outlook - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate in August was -8.8%, a significant drop from July's 3.7%[1] - Cumulative fiscal expenditure for the first eight months was -2.9%, indicating a substantial gap from the annual target, necessitating an acceleration in expenditure to support growth[1] - Short-term fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the economy, with a focus on the pace of fiscal spending and consumption-driven policies[1]