万联证券：万联晨会-20240923

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% to 2736.81 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.15% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.64%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 5745.57 billion RMB, with over 3300 stocks declining. Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 3.399 billion HKD [5][6] - In the Shenwan industry sector, real estate and computer industries led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and beauty care sectors saw declines. Concept sectors such as electronic ID cards and MLOps had notable increases, while the China Shipbuilding Industry and cell immunotherapy sectors faced significant declines [5][6] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.36%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.43%. In overseas markets, the three major US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.09%, the S&P 500 falling by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq dropping by 0.36% [5][6] M&A and Restructuring Market - The number of restructuring projects in 2024 has increased by 13.33% compared to the entire year of 2023, with 153 restructuring events disclosed by A-share listed companies as of September 13, 2024 [6] - The primary forms of restructuring include agreement acquisitions (41.91%) and issuing shares to purchase assets (39.71%), with other forms accounting for less than 10% [6] - Horizontal integration is the main purpose of restructuring, with 38.35% of projects aimed at this goal. Other merger purposes include strategic cooperation (19.55%) and other acquisition objectives (14.29%) [6] - Emerging industries are the primary targets for mergers and acquisitions, with the top five industries being electronics, computers, social services, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment, collectively accounting for 46.40% of the projects [6] - The report suggests focusing on "hard technology" companies benefiting from policy support and large state-owned enterprises accelerating mergers and restructuring to enhance resource integration and industry synergy [6] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, reducing the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 5.75%-5.0%. The balance sheet reduction remains unchanged at 250 billion USD per month for US Treasuries and 350 billion USD per month for MBS and agency debt [7] - The Fed's policy focus has shifted to stabilizing employment and controlling inflation, with future rate adjustments based on economic performance. The unemployment rate forecast has been raised to 4.4% for 2024, indicating increased concerns about job market conditions [7] - The initial rate cut of 50 basis points reflects a combination of factors, including the need to address potential risks in the job market and to prevent significant declines in the stock and bond markets due to already priced-in rate cuts [7] Communication Industry Performance - The communication industry showed positive performance in the first half of 2024, with revenues reaching 12,747.05 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1269.69 billion RMB, up 7.46% from the previous year [8] - The overall expense ratio for the industry was 15.66%, slightly decreasing, indicating good expense management while maintaining R&D investment levels. The gross margin improved to 29.17%, contributing to enhanced profitability [8] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in satellite communication, AI computing power, digital applications, and 5G construction, driven by policy support and market demand [8] Computer Industry Performance - The computer industry saw a revenue increase of 7.44% in the first half of 2024, reaching 5419.78 billion RMB, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 42.80% to 86.69 billion RMB, indicating pressure on profitability despite revenue growth [9][10] - The gross margin decreased to 25.53%, and the net margin fell to 1.83%, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability amid rising costs [10] - The report suggests focusing on digitalization, intelligence, and trusted computing investments, while being cautious of potential risks related to technology progress and market competition [9][10]