中国财政系列五：支出低预期，财政有待积极的扩张

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In August 2024, general public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with significant declines in VAT (-4.9%), personal income tax (-5.2%), and stamp duty (-23.1%) [2] - General public budget expenditure increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with notable growth in social security and employment (+3.3%) and education (+0.5%) [2] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 21.1% year-on-year, with local government revenue declining by 23.5% [12] Economic Indicators - The central government's general public budget revenue decreased by 6.2%, while local revenue saw a slight increase of 0.4% [12] - The CPI in August showed a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, indicating low inflation [3] - The national government debt ratio stood at 56.1% by the end of 2023, with a focus on balanced development and security in future debt management [2] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue for the first eight months of 2024 totaled 121,059 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 11.7% [12] - The securities transaction stamp duty saw a dramatic decline of 55.5% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of last year's policy changes [3] Budget Execution Status - By August 2024, the completion rate of general public budget revenue was 66.0%, which is 4.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [3] - The completion rate of general public budget expenditure was 60.9%, also below the five-year average by 1.4 percentage points [3] Sector-Specific Expenditure Trends - Expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water affairs increased by 5.4%, while health spending decreased by 12.6% year-on-year [14] - Debt interest payments rose by 5.6%, maintaining a relatively high level since March [3]