Leaderdrive(688017) 华安证券·2024-09-23 01:42Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Leaderdrive (688017) for the first time [1] Core Views - Leaderdrive is a high-tech enterprise specializing in R&D, design, production, and sales of precision transmission devices, with products widely used in robotics, CNC machine tools, medical devices, semiconductor equipment, and new energy equipment [1] - The company has achieved significant market share and customer penetration in the domestic market, gradually replacing international brands like Harmonic Drive and Nabtesco [1] - Leaderdrive has developed core technologies including a new generation of harmonic meshing "P-tooth" design theory, third harmonic technology, and advanced material modification techniques [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the development of humanoid robots, with its harmonic reducers covering the full range of requirements for smart robot rotary modules [1] Company Overview - Leaderdrive has a total market capitalization of 10.183 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 10.183 billion yuan, with a share price of 60.34 yuan as of the report date [1] - The company's 12-month high and low share prices were 163.55 yuan and 59.80 yuan, respectively [1] - Leaderdrive has a total share capital of 168.76 million shares, all of which are circulating shares [1] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Leaderdrive's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 451 million yuan, 573 million yuan, and 729 million yuan, respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 101 million yuan, 134 million yuan, and 163 million yuan for 2024-2026 [1] - EPS is expected to be 0.60 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.96 yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 101x, 76x, and 63x [1] Industry Analysis - Precision reducers are a key component in industrial robots, accounting for about 35% of the total cost [19] - The global market for RV reducers and harmonic reducers each account for about 40% of the robot market, with precision planetary reducers, cycloidal pinwheel reducers, and filter reducers making up the remaining 20% [19] - The development of humanoid robots is expected to drive demand for harmonic reducers, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology setting clear development goals for 2025 and 2027 [1] Competitive Advantages - Leaderdrive has achieved over 60% market share in the domestic market for harmonic reducers used in autonomous brand robots, breaking the monopoly of international brands [5] - The company has passed ISO9001 and ISO14001 international quality system certifications and is a major drafter of national standards for precision reducers [1] - Leaderdrive has developed a series of core technologies, including advanced harmonic meshing design theory, third harmonic technology, and unique material modification techniques [1] Product Development - Leaderdrive has developed a series of harmonic reducers with different characteristics, including the N series, Y series, and E series, catering to various application scenarios [28] - The company has also developed integrated mechatronic products, combining harmonic reducers with motors, sensors, and other components to provide standardized solutions [30] - Leaderdrive's products cover a wide range of applications, from industrial robots and CNC machine tools to medical devices and semiconductor equipment [26]