Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 51.21 [8][9]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's undervaluation and high return potential, particularly in the context of the anticipated interest rate cuts, which are expected to benefit both the numerator (North American store expansion and same-store growth) and the denominator (discount rate) [2][4]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in same-store sales growth in Q4, driven by new IP launches and a lower base effect from the previous quarter [3][4]. - North America is projected to continue its rapid growth, with the potential for improved profitability as the company optimizes its store operations and expands its franchise model [4][5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - In Q3 2023, the domestic same-store sales growth was impacted by a high base effect due to the popularity of the "Barbie" IP products. However, new IP products and the expansion of flagship stores are expected to support revenue growth in Q4 [3]. - The company anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of high single digits to low double digits in Q3, with operating profit benefiting from an increased sales mix of IP products and direct sales [3]. Overseas Market - The North American market is expected to accelerate its growth due to the favorable interest rate environment, which may reduce price competition. The company plans to introduce a franchise model to enhance store expansion and optimize rental and personnel costs [4]. - The report forecasts that overseas revenue will continue to show high growth in Q3, supported by the rapid expansion in North America and Southeast Asia [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of RMB 17.32 billion in 2024, representing a 50.97% increase from 2023. Net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.88 billion, a 62.64% increase [6][14]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including an expected EPS of RMB 2.28 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 13.10 [6][14]. TOPTOY Growth - TOPTOY is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory through continuous iteration of its UE model and optimization of store formats, with ongoing trials in overseas markets [5].
名创优品：低估值、高回报，北美加速成长