电子行业简评报告：预计2025年晶圆代工产值增长20%

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [20] Core Viewpoints - The wafer foundry output is expected to grow by 20% in 2025, outperforming the 16% growth in 2024. This growth is driven by the recovery of inventory levels in automotive and industrial control supply chains, alongside increased wafer consumption from Edge AI and ongoing Cloud AI deployments [3][4] - Advanced process technologies are expected to maintain strong growth momentum in 2025, with 3nm processes becoming mainstream for flagship PC CPUs and mobile application processors. The contribution of 7/6nm, 5/4nm, and 3nm processes to global wafer foundry revenue is projected to reach 45% in 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Wafer Foundry Growth - The average capacity utilization rate of wafer foundries is projected to be below 80% in 2024 due to weak demand in consumer electronics. However, the market is expected to recover in 2025 with a 20% increase in output [3][4] Advanced Process Technologies - The 3nm process capacity is entering an upward phase, and 2025 will see it become mainstream for key products. The utilization rates for 5/4nm processes remain high due to demand from mid-range and high-end smartphone chips [4] Market Performance - From September 16 to September 20, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.21%, while the CITIC Electronics sector fell by 0.14%. Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index is down 8%, and the CITIC Electronics sector has decreased by 19.68% [5][7] Sector Performance - The top-performing sub-sectors in electronics from September 16 to September 20 include consumer electronics devices, panels, security, optical optoelectronics, and discrete devices, with respective gains of 5.89%, 2.61%, 2.04%, 1.33%, and 0.11% [11] Stock Performance - The top ten performing stocks in the electronics sector from September 16 to September 20 include Wavelength Optoelectronics, Huiwei Intelligent, and Shengxun Co., with respective increases of 25.3%, 18.8%, and 14.6% [14][15] Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on semiconductor trends primarily related to computing power, storage, and PCB [17]