Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate to 4.75-5.00%, marking the first cut in four years[6] - The median forecast in the dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected within the year[6] - Economic projections show an upward revision of the unemployment rate and a downward revision of PCE inflation, with labor market concerns taking precedence over inflation[6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, major U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.25%, S&P 500 down 0.29%, and Nasdaq down 0.31%[10] - The U.S. dollar index initially dropped but later recovered, closing down 0.07% at 100.94[9] - Gold prices surged to a new high of $2,625 per ounce on September 20, driven by the Fed's rate cut and geopolitical tensions[14] Group 3: Domestic Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed a smoother trading logic, benefiting from the Fed's rate cut, with the Hang Seng Index rising 5.12%[11] - The onshore and offshore RMB appreciated significantly, closing at 7.0417 and 7.0517 against the USD, respectively[12] - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield fell to 2.0450%, reflecting the impact of the Fed's unexpected rate cut on domestic policy space[11] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China maintained the 1-year LPR at 3.35% and the 5-year LPR at 3.85% on September 20, indicating a cautious approach to further rate cuts[15] - From January to August, China's general fiscal revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, totaling 14.78 trillion yuan, while general fiscal expenditure increased by 1.5%[18]
跨资产观察周报：美联储超预期首次降息50bp下，海内外交易了哪些叙事？
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-09-24 01:00