Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the Light Industry Manufacturing sector [1] - A "Buy" rating is recommended for Aima Technology (603529 SH) [1] Core Views - The domestic electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry is experiencing steady growth, with electric bicycles accounting for 88 67% of the market and electric motorcycles making up 11 33% [3] - In 2023, domestic electric two-wheeler sales reached 55 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9 78%, with a CAGR of 10 57% from 2019 to 2023 [3] - The market share of electric two-wheelers is increasingly concentrated among leading enterprises, with the top 4 listed companies holding a combined market share of 58 19% in 2023 [3] - Tianjin has become a significant base for the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry, with its electric bicycle production accounting for 37 32% of the national total in 2023 [4] - The export potential for Tianjin's electric two-wheelers remains untapped, with exports accounting for only 8 41% of the national total in 2023 [5] - The electric two-wheeler battery swapping market is in its early stages, with a market size of 7 08 billion yuan in 2023, expected to exceed 20 billion yuan by 2026 [5] Domestic Electric Two-Wheeler and Three-Wheeler Industry - In 2023, domestic electric two-wheeler sales reached 55 million units, with a CAGR of 10 57% from 2019 to 2023 [3] - The electric two-wheeler market is dominated by electric bicycles, which account for 88 67% of the market, while electric motorcycles make up 11 33% [3] - The market share of electric two-wheelers is increasingly concentrated among leading enterprises, with the top 4 listed companies holding a combined market share of 58 19% in 2023 [3] - The electric three-wheeler market maintained a size of around 40 billion yuan in 2023, with sales of approximately 14 million units [12] Tianjin as a Key Industry Base - Tianjin's electric bicycle production accounted for 37 32% of the national total in 2023, with a CAGR of 19 79% from 2018 to 2023 [4] - Tianjin has a strong manufacturing foundation and a complete industrial chain, making it a key base for the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry [4] - The city has attracted leading enterprises such as Aima, Yadea, and Tailg to set up production bases, further solidifying its position as a key industry hub [28] Export and Overseas Market Potential - In 2023, China's electric two-wheeler exports exceeded 15 million units, with Tianjin accounting for 8 41% of the national total [5] - The global electric two-wheeler market is expanding, with Europe and the US being the primary export markets, while Southeast Asia is seen as a potential growth market [5] - Leading companies such as Aima, Yadea, and Tailg have started production base layouts in Southeast Asia, enhancing their competitiveness in the region [44][45][46][47] Battery Swapping and Charging Infrastructure - The electric two-wheeler battery swapping market is in its early stages, with a market size of 7 08 billion yuan in 2023, expected to exceed 20 billion yuan by 2026 [5] - Tianjin is accelerating the construction of charging and swapping stations, aiming to add at least 100,000 new charging piles by 2030 [5] - The city has already established a significant presence in the battery swapping market, with 864 swapping stations and 1,200 swapping cabinets deployed as of May 2023 [56] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has strengthened regulations on the electric bicycle industry, optimizing the supply-side structure and stimulating domestic demand through policies such as "trade-in" programs [6] - Tianjin has introduced policies to promote the large-scale and standardized development of the electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler industry, including support for digital transformation and intelligent manufacturing [24][25]
天津电动两轮车&三轮车产业专题报告：全国重点基地，未来出海、后市场发展可期
渤海证券·2024-09-24 02:09