化工行业2024年中报总结：景气度筑底，供给侧反弹

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the chemical industry, indicating a potential recovery in the cycle and recommending specific stocks for investment [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry has experienced a downturn over the past two years, but the worst is believed to be over. Supply-side reforms and improving demand conditions are expected to support a recovery in the industry [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on stocks that benefit from improving supply-demand dynamics, high dividends, and domestic substitution in new materials [2][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Environment - The chemical industry has faced challenges due to global economic downturns and capacity expansions, leading to a decline in the Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI), which fell by 8.99% from the beginning of 2023 to September 2024 [2][4]. - The report notes that the capital expenditure growth rate in the chemical sector is slowing, indicating a potential stabilization in supply [2][4]. Sector Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sub-sectors in the chemical industry for the first half of 2024: - Polyurethane Sector: Revenue of 104.14 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.11%, but net profit decreased by 4.78% [4]. - Phosphate and Phosphate Chemical Sector: Revenue of 64.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.92%, with net profit increasing by 9.95% [4]. - Fluorochemical Sector: Revenue of 28.66 billion yuan, an increase of 5.53%, with net profit rising by 14.40% [4]. - Coal Chemical Sector: Revenue of 67.47 billion yuan, a significant increase of 15.25%, with net profit soaring by 116.14% [4]. - Pesticide Sector: Revenue of 76.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.12%, with net profit down by 55.07% [5]. - Potash Fertilizer Sector: Revenue of 12.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.95%, with net profit down by 50.57% [6]. - Organic Silicon Sector: Revenue of 22.69 billion yuan, an increase of 7.38%, but net profit decreased by 30.86% [6]. - Food and Feed Additives Sector: Revenue of 43.68 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2.26%, with net profit increasing by 15.57% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stocks with improving supply-demand dynamics, quality new materials for domestic substitution, and high dividend yields, including companies like Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [2][4].