货币政策“大礼包”点评：所有选项都已摆上桌面

Monetary Policy Adjustments - The central bank's decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points (BP) in September is seen as an optimal choice for long-term liquidity provision, aligning with expectations and ensuring adequate credit supply by year-end [1][3] - Future RRR cuts are anticipated, with a 25BP reduction in December, followed by a 50BP cut after the Spring Festival, and a further 100BP reduction in 2025 to meet incremental credit financing needs [1][3] - The RRR cuts are part of a broader strategy to modernize the monetary policy transmission mechanism, replacing high-cost MLF with lower-cost treasury bond purchases [1][3] Mortgage Rate Adjustments - A reduction in existing mortgage rates by approximately 50BP aims to prevent a significant rise in non-performing loans and mitigate the risk of secondary demand contraction and systemic financial risks [1][4][5] - The policy reflects a cautious approach to the real estate market, with measures such as increasing the proportion of re-lending for affordable housing and considering direct purchases of developers' reserve land by policy banks [1][5] Interest Rate Cuts - A 20BP cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate reflects a cautious easing stance in response to the deep-water phase of deleveraging in real estate and local governments, nearing the limit of net interest margins [1][6][7] - The central bank may stabilize long-term treasury bond rates post-rate cut, while monitoring the upward risks of long-term US Treasury yields and the dollar index [1][6][7] Capital Market Support - The creation of swap facilities for securities, funds, and insurance companies, along with special re-lending, is expected to increase incremental funds in the stock market and stabilize market confidence [1][8] - These tools are designed to avoid excessive base money issuance and isolate central bank assets from stock market volatility, with initial caps set at 500 billion yuan for non-bank swap facilities and limited balances for special re-lending [1][8]