半导体设备国产替代趋势月度跟踪：6月检测、量测招标量居多，研磨抛光设备国产化中标比例领先

Industry Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Buy" [1] Core Views - In June 2024, there were 16 bidding projects, mainly from YanDong, HuaHong, and SMIC, focusing on inspection and metrology equipment [1] - From January to June 2024, there were 259 bidding projects in the sample wafer production lines, with HuaHong Semiconductor, Jita Semiconductor, and YanDong Technology leading in bidding volume [1] - In June 2024, there were 33 winning bids, with gas-liquid systems, testers, and metrology equipment being the most common, and domestic equipment accounting for 52% of the winning bids [1] - From January to June 2024, there were 712 winning bids in the sample wafer production lines, with gas-liquid systems, diffusion, and probe stations being the most common, and domestic equipment accounting for 31% of the winning bids [1] - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers, such as YTMC, SMEE, and NAURA, led in winning bids, with YTMC's stripping equipment, SMEE's inspection equipment, and NAURA's furnace equipment having leading winning bid ratios of 85%, 48%, and 25% respectively [1] Industry Overview - Semiconductor equipment is the foundation of the semiconductor industry, driving technological upgrades and application expansion [7] - Global wafer capacity is expanding, with China's expansion speed significantly faster than the global average [8] - In 2023, global wafer capacity was 29.6 million wafers per month (200mm equivalent), with a projected increase to 31.49 million wafers per month in 2024 [8] - China's wafer capacity in 2023 was 7.6 million wafers per month, with a projected increase to 8.6 million wafers per month in 2024 [10] - China's mature process capacity accounted for 29% of the global total in 2023, with a projected increase to 33% by 2027 [11] - Global 300mm wafer fab equipment spending is expected to reach $116.5 billion in 2025, with China's spending expected to remain at a high level of $30 billion [12] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include NAURA, AMEC, Hwatsing, ACM Research, Piotech, Skyverse, Wanye Enterprise, Kingsemi, Huafeng Measurement & Control, Changchuan Technology, Weina, and PNC [1] - These companies are expected to benefit from the expansion of the domestic semiconductor equipment market and the deepening of the domestic substitution process [1] Market Trends and Technological Advancements - Advanced technologies such as FinFET, Nanosheet, and CFET are driving the evolution of semiconductor devices, with TSMC expected to adopt Nanosheet technology for its 2nm process [14][15] - In 3D NAND, manufacturers like Micron and Kioxia are advancing towards 2XX, 3XX, and 4XX layer NAND flash, improving storage density and I/O speed [16] - In DRAM, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix are advancing towards 1β and 1γ technologies, with Samsung expected to launch 3D DRAM based on vertical channel transistors in 2025 [18] - Advanced packaging technologies like COWOS and HBM are in high demand due to AI applications, with COWOS-S, COWOS-L, and HBM3e technologies being developed [19][20] Domestic Substitution and Market Growth - The domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment is accelerating, driven by industrial support, national strategy, and the need for supply chain security [21] - In 2023, the global semiconductor equipment market size was $106.246 billion, with China's market size at $35.697 billion, a 29.47% year-on-year increase [22][23] - Domestic semiconductor equipment companies are expected to benefit from the expansion of the equipment market and the deepening of the domestic substitution process, with their growth driven by product competitiveness, serviceable market space, and category expansion capabilities [24][25]