煤炭行业周报：短期反弹进行时，长期走势仍待观察

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Positive" [1] Core Views - The thermal coal price has shown a slight rebound, stabilizing in the short term due to sustained high electricity demand from residents amid ongoing high temperatures. The seasonal shortage of hydropower has increased the demand for thermal power, leading to a slight price rebound in thermal coal [1][6] - Coking coal demand is expected to improve in the short term, providing opportunities for a rebound despite a weak performance earlier in the year due to the impact of the real estate sector [1][20] - The shipping sector has seen an overall price increase, driven by a recovery in supply and demand, with shipping volumes remaining high [1][30] - The secondary market is showing strength, with a notable rebound opportunity in the coal sector as the fundamentals improve [1][39] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal industry has performed exceptionally well, leading the recovery compared to the Shanghai Composite Index. During the week of September 18-22, the coal sector rose by 3.64%, outperforming major indices [4][6] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices have increased for two consecutive weeks, driven by supply-demand dynamics. The supply of quality domestic coal resources is insufficient, while demand remains high due to ongoing high temperatures and a lack of hydropower [6][10] - The average daily inventory of thermal coal at ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased to 22.75 million tons, down 327,200 tons week-on-week [10] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have remained stable, with limited downward potential. The overall demand for coking coal is weak, but seasonal factors and policy support may lead to a slight recovery [20][24] Shipping Situation - Shipping capacity remains high, with an average of 102 vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports. Shipping prices have increased due to improved supply-demand conditions [30][34] Industry News - Various initiatives are underway to enhance coal supply and storage, including the establishment of a winter coal reserve system in Lanzhou and the promotion of green low-carbon transitions in Shanghai [33]