Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a strong potential for growth and profitability in the coming quarters [3][23]. Core Insights - The report highlights that pig prices have continued to rise, with August seeing a significant increase in prices and a cautious approach from producers regarding production capacity [4][5]. - It is noted that the industry is expected to experience a prolonged profitability cycle, with limited downside potential for pig prices despite a recent peak [5][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong cost advantages and high output realization rates, suggesting that leading firms are likely to perform well in the upcoming quarters [6][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Volume: Gradual Increase in Output - In August 2024, 17 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 12.925 million pigs, a slight increase of 0.9% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [10]. - The overall trend in the first eight months shows stable output, with high prices not leading to significant increases in production capacity [10][12]. 2. Price: Breaking Through 20 Yuan - The national average price for pigs in August was 20.37 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.56% [14]. - The average selling price for 14 listed companies also rose to 20.20 yuan per kilogram, with a year-on-year increase of 19.54% [14]. 3. Weight: Slight Decrease - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in August was 116.1 kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.46% from the previous month [18]. - This trend indicates a cautious industry outlook, with producers opting for a steady output strategy rather than aggressive expansion [18]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cost advantages and high output realization rates, particularly in the fourth quarter when pig prices are expected to remain robust [21]. - Recommended companies include leading firms such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as smaller companies like Juxing Agriculture and Huadong Animal Husbandry [21].
上市猪企销售月报总结:猪价继续走高,产业端依然谨慎
China Post Securities·2024-09-24 11:30