宏观周报：等待政策

Group 1: Domestic Bond Market Insights - Current policy expectations are rising, and government bond supply is expected to peak, leading to potential risks of a market correction despite a long-term bullish outlook for bonds[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to be around 2.0%, while the 30-year yield is expected to be around 2.1%[1] - There is a phenomenon of under-allocation in institutions, indicating a potential for increased demand in the bond market despite short-term volatility[1] Group 2: Currency and Federal Reserve Analysis - The recent 50 basis point (bp) rate cut by the Federal Reserve did not lead to a significant decline in the US dollar index, but it did trigger a surge in currency settlement from exporters[1] - The RMB may continue to appreciate, although the overall extent of appreciation is not expected to be substantial[1] - The Federal Reserve's focus remains on employment and economic stability, with ongoing debates about the timing and extent of future rate cuts[1] Group 3: Economic Projections - The Federal Reserve's projections indicate a stable unemployment rate and GDP growth, with core inflation expected to decline in the coming months[1] - The long-term neutral interest rate is projected to rise, with recent estimates increasing from 2.5% to 2.9%[1] - The market anticipates a potential for further rate cuts, with discussions around a 50bp reduction remaining contentious[1]