宏观视角看消费系列之三：存量房贷利率下调影响几何？

Impact on Residents - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates by approximately 0.5 percentage points is expected to reduce monthly payments by nearly 300 CNY for each 1 million CNY loan, potentially increasing consumer spending by around 1 trillion CNY[12][19]. - The negative wealth effect and substitution effect are the two main pathways through which mortgage rate adjustments influence consumer behavior, with the former reducing disposable income and the latter amplifying the impact of debt on consumption[13][14]. Impact on Banks - The reduction in existing mortgage rates may lead to a decrease in net interest margins for listed banks by about 6 basis points, necessitating an overall deposit rate cut of approximately 8 basis points to offset this[12][25]. - The stability of repayments is expected to improve, potentially mitigating the negative impact on banks' asset quality despite the initial price pressure from lower interest rates[12][25]. Market Implications - In the equity market, the focus will shift towards valuation recovery in real estate-related sectors, while the bond market may see a short-term dominance of liquidity-driven movements, with a potential rise in 10-year government bond yields towards the end of the year[12][25]. - The adjustment in mortgage rates is anticipated to enhance market confidence and stabilize consumer sentiment, which is crucial for economic recovery[12][19]. Risks and Considerations - There are inherent risks in the data calculations, including the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations and external liquidity conditions may exceed forecasts[12][25]. - The disparity in consumption recovery between urban and rural residents, along with high leverage among urban households, poses challenges to overall consumer spending growth[20][21].