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锡精矿进口维持低位,支撑锡价中枢上行
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-09-25 01:03

Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is 24,372.90 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 21,541.12 billion CNY[1]. - The industry consists of 131 listed companies, with a significant focus on non-ferrous metals, particularly tin[1]. Tin Market Insights - In August, approximately 579 metric tons of tin concentrate were imported from Myanmar, representing a month-on-month decrease of 57.68% and a year-on-year decrease of 87.33%[2]. - The SHFE tin price increased by 1.71% to 261,900 CNY per ton, while the LME tin price rose by 3.88% to 32,150 USD per ton[3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for tin is expected to recover gradually, supported by a lack of effective capital expenditure and a resilient supply chain[2]. - The overall supply of tin remains rigid, with semiconductor consumption anticipated to gradually recover alongside high demand in the photovoltaic sector[2]. Price Trends in Other Metals - The price of rare earth oxides, such as praseodymium-neodymium, increased by 2.43% to 421,500 CNY per ton, indicating a strengthening market[11]. - The price of antimony remained stable at 138,000 CNY per ton, while the price of antimony ingots decreased slightly by 0.62%[3]. Electric Vehicle Market Performance - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.092 million and 1.1 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 29.6% and 30%[14]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 44.8%, indicating robust market growth despite a decline in European sales[14]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, technological substitution, changes in industrial policies, and unexpected declines in new energy vehicle sales[3].