汽车行业：24年数据点评系列十二：乘用车：上调24年全年终端销量同比增速预期

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The demand for passenger cars has exceeded expectations following the intensified vehicle replacement policy, leading to an upward adjustment of the 2024 annual terminal sales growth forecast for passenger cars to 5%-10% [2][9][19] - In August 2024, the sales volume of passenger cars under 150,000 CNY showed significant month-on-month growth, with models priced below 50,000 CNY, 50,000-100,000 CNY, and 100,000-150,000 CNY increasing by 69.5%, 17.1%, and 12.6% respectively, outperforming the overall industry growth rates [2][14] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to rise, with August 2024 NEV sales reaching 1.011 million units, a year-on-year increase of 49.7% and a month-on-month increase of 14.3% [2][32] Summary by Sections Section 1: Passenger Car Replacement Policy - The intensified vehicle replacement policy has significantly boosted demand for mid-to-low-end models, with the sales volume of passenger cars in August 2024 reaching 1.937 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.4% [9][14] - The cumulative sales volume for the first eight months of 2024 stands at 13.383 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [9][14] Section 2: New Energy Vehicle Performance - The market share of Chinese brands in passenger car sales reached 63.1% in August 2024, up 12.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the growth of NEVs [32] - The cumulative sales of NEVs from January to August 2024 reached 5.941 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 41.2% [2][32] Section 3: Inventory and Sales Dynamics - As of the end of August 2024, the inventory of passenger cars was 3.828 million units, with a reduction of 185,000 units in August alone [21][24] - The dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio decreased to 2.1, indicating a stronger inventory clearance than in previous periods [21][24] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Great Wall Motors, BYD, and Li Auto, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the automotive market [2][3]