有色金属脉动跟踪：美联储降息落地，金属价格普涨

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to a broad increase in metal prices, with gold showing strong potential due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections. Short-term gold prices are expected to be more certain, while the medium-term outlook depends on U.S. economic expectations regarding recession or re-inflation [9][10] - In the precious metals sector, gold is expected to perform strongly during the interest rate cut cycle, while copper shows short-term uncertainty but a positive long-term outlook. Aluminum is expected to maintain high profitability, with potential differentiation in green aluminum. Lead and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, while tin prices are under pressure due to semiconductor market adjustments. Nickel prices are facing downward pressure, and tungsten prices are rising amid ongoing supply-demand dynamics [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold is expected to have a stronger certainty during the interest rate cut cycle, with recent geopolitical events contributing to price increases [9] - Silver prices have also seen an increase, reflecting positive market sentiment [34] Industrial Metals - Copper shows short-term uncertainty but a favorable long-term outlook, supported by seasonal demand and tightening supply [10] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high due to strong profitability and limited supply growth [11] - Lead and zinc prices are fluctuating, with attention on smelting production cuts [12] - Tin prices are rebounding due to improved demand from the semiconductor sector [13] - Nickel prices are under pressure, with ongoing inventory accumulation [14] Strategic Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are weak, with demand not meeting expectations [15] - Antimony prices are stable domestically, while overseas prices are rising [16] - Molybdenum prices are high, supported by strong steel demand [17] - Rare earth prices, particularly for praseodymium-neodymium and terbium, are expected to continue rising [19] - Titanium market demand remains low, with bearish sentiment prevailing [20] Macro Trends and Industry Dynamics - Global macro trends indicate a gradual recovery in PMI, with inflation levels returning to reasonable ranges but not below 2% [21][25] - In China, PMI remains under pressure, and fixed asset investment is fluctuating at low levels [25][30] - The Brazilian rare earth project is set to begin production in 2027, which may impact global supply dynamics [30] - Global aluminum production has increased slightly, while China's output has decreased [31]