纯碱深度复盘：云卷云舒，新章待启

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the soda ash industry, indicating a favorable outlook [4] Core Views - The soda ash industry has experienced significant volatility in recent years, with prices peaking at 3700 RMB/ton in October 2021 and dropping to 1550 RMB/ton by September 2024 [2][4] - The industry is currently in a period of expansion, driven by low-cost natural soda ash production, which is expected to accelerate the exit of high-cost producers [4][41] - The report highlights the investment opportunity in Yuanxing Energy, a leading company with significant cost advantages and growth potential [4][41] Industry Overview - Soda ash is a fundamental chemical raw material used in glass production, detergents, and food industries, with its largest demand coming from flat glass, although its share has declined from 45% in 2017 to 34% in 2023 [4][13] - The consumption of soda ash in China grew from 22.58 million tons in 2013 to 31.34 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.3% [13] - The production process of soda ash is divided into three main methods: ammonia-soda process, combined-soda process, and natural soda ash process, with natural soda ash having the lowest production cost [14][15] Historical Price Cycles - 2006-2008: The soda ash price surge was driven by strong demand growth, with heavy soda ash prices rising from 1350 RMB/ton in April 2006 to 2215 RMB/ton in April 2008, a 64.1% increase [21] - 2010H2-2011: A power shortage policy triggered a price spike, with heavy soda ash prices doubling from 1300 RMB/ton in August 2010 to 2600 RMB/ton in October 2010 [25][26] - 2016-2017: Supply-side reforms and capacity reductions led to a recovery in soda ash prices, with the industry experiencing a period of consolidation [19][32] - 2021 Super Cycle: A combination of strong demand (especially from photovoltaic glass), limited new capacity, and high raw material costs drove prices to a historical high of 3700 RMB/ton in October 2021 [34][35] Current Industry Dynamics - The soda ash industry is facing oversupply due to new capacity additions, with prices dropping to 1550 RMB/ton in September 2024, close to historical lows [36][37] - The industry is expected to undergo further consolidation, with low-cost natural soda ash producers like Yuanxing Energy likely to gain market share and accelerate the exit of high-cost producers [38][41] - The demand outlook remains uncertain, with flat glass demand under pressure due to declining real estate starts and photovoltaic glass demand facing short-term challenges [37][38] Investment Recommendation - The report recommends focusing on Yuanxing Energy, which has significant cost advantages and is expected to benefit from the industry's consolidation phase [41][42]