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保险Ⅱ行业跟踪分析：国新会释放积极信号，利好资产端回暖
GF SECURITIES·2024-09-25 02:10

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Viewpoints - The recent government policies, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates, are expected to positively impact the insurance sector's asset side, leading to a recovery in economic expectations and an increase in long-term interest rates [2] - The real estate policies introduced are anticipated to mitigate industry risks, particularly concerning the valuation of real estate-related assets held by insurance companies [2] - Innovative monetary policy tools are likely to support the equity market, benefiting insurance stocks and their net profit growth [2] - The report suggests a focus on the insurance sector due to favorable policies, with specific stock recommendations including China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, China Taiping, Ping An, China Life, and China Property & Casualty [2] Summary by Sections Government Policies - The State Council's recent announcements include five measures aimed at stabilizing the economy, which are expected to benefit the insurance sector by improving the asset side [2] Economic Recovery - The anticipated recovery in economic expectations is expected to lead to a rebound in the 10-year government bond yield from the current low of around 2%, positively affecting the investment returns for insurance companies [2] Real Estate Impact - The new real estate measures are expected to alleviate risks associated with real estate investments, which have previously led to impairment losses for insurance companies [2] Market Performance - The report highlights that the low base from the previous year's third quarter will likely result in improved profit growth for insurance companies in the upcoming reports [2] Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the insurance sector, specifically suggesting stocks such as China Pacific Insurance (A/H), New China Life (A/H), China Taiping (H), Ping An (A/H), China Life (A/H), and China Property & Casualty (H) [2]