【宏观周报】美联储9月降息50基点，全年预计累计降息100基点

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value in China increased by 4.6% year-on-year and 0.78% month-on-month[1] - The service production index grew by 4.4% year-on-year, while retail sales totaled 28,786 billion yuan, marking a 2.1% year-on-year increase but a 6.0% month-on-month decline[1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 329,358 billion yuan in the first eight months, up 3.4% year-on-year[1] - The average urban unemployment rate for the first eight months was 5.8%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year[1] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The People's Bank of China reported a cumulative increase in social financing of 21.4 trillion yuan in the first eight months, down 3.82 trillion yuan year-on-year[2] - New RMB loans added in September were 900 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in August, with core inflation dropping to 0.8%[2] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, with an expected total reduction of 100 basis points for the year[2] Employment and Market Trends - The U.S. unemployment rate decreased to 4.8% in August, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 142,000, below market expectations[2] - The manufacturing PMI in China was reported at 49.3, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 51.5, indicating expansion[1][2] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year in September, with core CPI remaining stable[2]