1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美摩擦再起,影响风险偏好,但总体来说双方仍在谈判。 2. 美国进入新的降息周期,降息利于人民币升值,利于外资回流,带来新的增量资金。 "十五五" 时期重科技创新、扩内需，科技板块引领上证指数刷新 年内高点 日期：2025-10-25 【股指期货周报20251025】"十五五"时期重科技创新、扩内需，科技板块引领上证指数刷新年内高点 策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 中美再度谈判，国内指数走势仍较为独立,四中全会发布会议公报。"十五五"规划出炉,把科技创新放在重要地位,坚持扩大内需。受比影响科技板块大幅反 弹;中长期来看,国内市场为流动性叙事,增量资金源源不断,股指盘整过后仍有上行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 3.当前稳定资本市场政策积极，股指底线明确，而新技术、新消费在推动者经济预期企稳回升，"十五五"规划提高对科技创新要求三扩内需，未来五年政策 大方向落地。 4. 无风险利率降至低位后,中长期资金入市及居民入市将进入全新周期。 5. 未来指数需要关注成交情况,两市成交若能维持在两万亿上方,则仍能维持相对强势。 6.建议重点配置具备盈利确定性的半导体、AI算力等科技成长赛道，同时关注金 ...

【生猪鸡蛋周报20251017】生猪关注出栏节奏，鸡蛋关注淘鸡进 E 日期：2025-10-17 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【生猪鸡蛋周报20251017】生猪关注出栏节奏，鸡蛋关注淘鸡进度 | 核心观点 2025-10-17 | 核心观点 | | | | 2025-10-17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | * 合约: Ih2601 ▪ 观点： 生猪 震荡下行阶段，后期价格中枢有望下降 | | ♥ 观点： 鸡蛋 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 | | * 合约: jd2601 | | | 『 逻辑: 能繁母猪存栏持续偏高,结合生产性能回升,生猪供给呈增长态势, 2025年下半年生猪供给压力 | | � 逻辑： 在产蛋鸡存栏同比高位，供给压力持续施压，需求年内季节性变化，但受限于宏观经济与消费者偏 | | | | | 仍较大，需求预期李节性走旺，但受经济发展放缓与消费偏好转换影响，提振幅度或有限，预计下半年猪价反 | | 好，预计波动幅度有限，综合考虑成本与利润问题，预计鸡蛋重心仍将低位运行。 | | | | | 弹空间有限，整体仍将承压。 | ...

【玉米周报20251017】阴雨天气继续加剧短期卖压，玉米价格承 压行 日期: 2025-10-17 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【玉米周报20251017】阴雨天气继续加剧短期卖压，玉米价格承压下行 核心观点 2025-10-17 ● 合约:c2601 ® 观点： 玉米 短期易跌难涨，但下方空间有限，在2000价位存在支撑 ® 逻辑b章并产压力的总现。尤其是何南等地因旧硕天气导致创缸严重，玉米价格或常继续承征走弱，但在中线跳炸霜相对平衡、后市或将季节生偏紧。现阶段甘首席低美女草下，不宜过分球队，预计2001台线短 | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为导向 | 情形身向 | 现货散口 | 策略推荐 | 套保衍生品 | 奨 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | 賀易南 | 采购管理 | 建库存，寻求低价买入玉米 | 空 | 买入虚值看涨期权防止价格上涨，卖出 | c2601-C-2300 ...

【白糖周报20251017】巴西产量追平去年，糖价继续承压 日期: 2025-10-17 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【白糖周报20251017】巴西产量追平去年，糖价继续承压 核心观点 【撰写人】 新商期货有限公司 向博 (Z0015359) 【咨询电话】 0571-87219375 【免吉声明】 2025-10-17 ® 合约: SR601 ® 观点:白糖 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 ® 潤動， 国外方面，巴西2025/26种季压申高峰持绕， 丰产预期背景下原糖预计承压运行为主，但产墙同比闹抵支撑原粮价格，北半球2025/26传季主产国神面集体增长，降水正常常景下预防同样增广，全球食精烘需维持 鼓松怪甸，国内方面，目前产销进度模块，但第三方年存得。 盈加近月原籍到避暑都失明。班，2月任我帮帮助推广，毕业带绕错声的祖母。终端筹费随着中队留货展开后一定对特，但A应在配音得原下超起而时看明, 整体来看，全球增产周期尚未结束，中长期供应预计宽松格局持续，SR2601合约震荡偏弱看待。 产业链操作建议 场外报价 行为9向 买卖 套保比例(%) 入场价格 参与角色 情形向 现货的口 贵暗挂寺 套保存生命 ...

【股指期货周报20251019】风险偏好下降，股指本周继续震荡 策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 中国第一次对外实行"长臂管辖",超美国预期,特朗普反制加征关税。中美摩擦加深，短期影响股指走势，尤其是高估值科技股。股指预计迎来调整。但回调 幅度或弱于四月份,不必过分悲观;中长期来看,国内市场为流动性叙事,增量资金源源不断,仍有上行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美摩擦再起,影响风险偏好。 【风险提示】 浙商期货有限公司 报告撰写人:周志超 从业资格号: F03087618 投资咨询号: Z0019474 全球指数收盘价 一、市场表现 全球指数涨跌幅 周涨跌幅/年初至今涨跌幅 申万一级行业涨跌幅 货币投放 MLF投放 二、流动性 狭义流动性 逆回购利率/DR007 M2/社会融资规模 广义流动性 股指周报目录 成交额/换手率/涨跌家数比 三、交易数据及情绪 基金份额/融资融券/开户数 北向资金/南向资金 国内主要指数PE/PE分位数 四、指数估值 四大期指股债性价比/股债性价比分位数 申万一级行业PE/PE分位数 五、指数行业权重 四大期指行业权重分布 【股指期货周报20251019】风险 ...

【股指期货周报20251019】风险偏好下降，股指本周继续震荡 【逻辑跟踪】 1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美摩擦再起,影响风险偏好。 【风险提示】 浙商期货有限公司 报告撰写人:周志超 从业资格号: F03087618 策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 中国第一次对外实行"长臂管辖",超美国预期,特朗普反制加征关税。中美摩擦加深，短期影响股指走势，尤其是高估值科技股。股指预计迎来调整。但回调 幅度或弱于四月份,不必过分悲观;中长期来看,国内市场为流动性叙事,增量资金源源不断,仍有上行动能。 投资咨询号: Z0019474 全球指数收盘价 一、市场表现 全球指数涨跌幅 周涨跌幅/年初至今涨跌幅 申万一级行业涨跌幅 货币投放 MLF投放 二、流动性 狭义流动性 逆回购利率/DR007 M2/社会融资规模 广义流动性 股指周报目录 成交额/换手率/涨跌家数比 三、交易数据及情绪 基金份额/融资融券/开户数 北向资金/南向资金 国内主要指数PE/PE分位数 四、指数估值 四大期指股债性价比/股债性价比分位数 申万一级行业PE/PE分位数 五、指数行业权重 四大期指行业权重分布 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明 ...

Report Title - "PP Weekly Report 20251012: Supply and Demand Pressure and Cost End Collapse, Polyolefin Prices Decline" [1][2][7] Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a downward oscillation phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. PP is in a production capacity release cycle, with new devices being put into operation one after another, and the existing production load is also high, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and is unable to digest the high production volume. Under the situation of supply-demand surplus, the price center of PP may continue to move downward [6]. - After the holiday, the PP price gapped down, and the bearish sentiment was further strengthened compared to before the holiday. On one hand, it was due to cost factors, such as the decline in Saudi Arabia's October CP and OPEC's announcement of continued production increase in November, which led to a decline in the cost of crude oil and PS. On the other hand, the fundamental situation remained weak, with a significant accumulation of inventory after the holiday. The demand in the peak season was limited, and the purchasing enthusiasm was poor. Additionally, there was a political risk on Friday, as Trump's attitude towards China became more aggressive, and tariffs were re - imposed, causing a sharp decline in the price of crude oil in the commodity market and further pressuring the polyolefin price [9]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions Inventory Management for Sellers - For those with high inventory and worried about PP price decline, they can short futures contracts on the disk for the PP to be sold to prevent price decline risks (contract: pp2601, entry price: 6950, hedging ratio: 50%) or buy put options on the disk (contract: pp2601 - P - 6900, entry price: 112, hedging ratio: 50%) [4]. Procurement Management for Traders - To build inventory and seek to buy PP at a low price, they can buy call options in proportion to control procurement costs and prevent price increases (contract: pp2601 - C - 6900, entry price: 125, hedging ratio: 100%) [4]. Procurement and Inventory Management for Terminal Customers - When in need of PP raw materials and worried about price increases, they can buy call options in proportion to control procurement costs (contract: pp2601 - C - 6900, entry price: 125, hedging ratio: 100%); when having raw material inventory and worried about price declines, they can short futures contracts on the disk in proportion (contract: pp2601, entry price: 6950, hedging ratio: 50%) or buy put options (contract: pp2601 - P - 6900, entry price: 112, hedging ratio: 50%) [4]. Market Data Analysis Supply - Domestic production: This week, the PP output was 79.62 million tons (+1.62 million tons), and the operating rate was 77.75% (+1.14%). During the holiday, the devices were restarted one after another, leading to an increase in PP output and a decline in loss volume, intensifying the supply pressure [10]. - Imports and exports: According to customs data, in August, the PP import volume was 24.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.54%, and the export volume was 27.59 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.67%. China's net PP import was - 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 233.72%. The export volume exceeded the import volume again [10]. Demand - After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.76%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.08% compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.38%, supported by the increased demand for fertilizer packaging in agriculture and the resumption of construction in industries such as construction and infrastructure. After the holiday, the demand cooled down, and the operating rates of BOPP and CPP decreased by 0.67% and 1.68% respectively. The operating rate of PP pipe materials remained stable. The consumption in the automotive and home appliance industries was strong, and with the arrival of the peak season, the operating rate of modified PP increased by 0.38%. Although there is still room for improvement in the traditional peak season, the overall performance is relatively weak and unable to digest the high supply volume [10]. Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 16.11 million tons to 68.14 million tons, including an accumulation of 4.5 million tons in the inventory of two major oil companies, 7.07 million tons in coal - chemical industry inventory, 0.83 million tons in PBI inventory, and 3.71 million tons in local refinery inventory. During the holiday, upstream trading stagnated, and the inventory accumulated seasonally with a considerable increase, putting significant pressure on the upstream [10][206]. - The inventory of traders increased by 7.39 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.22 million tons, with an increase in the proportion of foreign resources in the domestic market [209]. Cost - During the holiday, the crude oil price rebounded after a decline and then fell again this week, especially dropping to around $62 per barrel on Friday. The main reasons for the decline during the holiday were OPEC+'s plan to increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day in November and the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel, which alleviated geopolitical concerns. On Friday, Trump's attitude towards China became more aggressive, reigniting tariff risks and causing a sharp decline in crude oil prices. However, the profit of oil - based PP has remained at a relatively good level in recent years [10][64]. - The LPG price continued to decline, and the profit of PDH - based PP improved month - on - month [11][64]. - After the holiday, the downstream demand for thermal coal was poor, and procurement slowed down. There is a certain downward space for coal prices, and the CT0 profit remained high. Due to the tight supply - demand situation, the price of methanol at the production area was firm, and the profit of inland MTO was under pressure and deteriorated [11][64]. Market Structure Analysis Basis and Spread - Basis: The spot price of plastic standard products also declined, with certain shipment pressure. The basis strengthened slightly compared to before the holiday. The basis in East China strengthened by 30 to around - 100 yuan per ton, the basis in North China strengthened by 50 to around - 130 yuan per ton, and the basis in South China strengthened by 40 to around - 100 yuan per ton [19]. - Non - standard basis: The trend of non - standard basis was stronger than that of standard products [19]. - Regional spread: The North China - East China spread remained at a medium level, and the South China - East China spread further weakened [31]. - Related product spread: The injection molding - drawing spread was at a low level, and the low - melt copolymer - drawing spread strengthened [32]. - Disk spread: The 1 - 5 month spread remained at around - 40. The L - PP01 spread strengthened slightly to over 300, and the PP - V01 spread was relatively stable. Overall, the supply pressure of PP was greater, while there were more maintenance activities for L and the demand for agricultural films started, and the demand recovery of PP was relatively slow, so the L - PP spread gradually repaired upwards. After the holiday, the price of PP dropped more due to the pressure on the cost side of PG, further strengthening the spread [50]. Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - Production profit: The profit of oil - based PP remained at a relatively good level in recent years; the profit of PDH - based PP improved month - on - month; the profit of CT0 remained high, while the profit of inland MTO was under pressure and deteriorated [64]. - Domestic output and load: This week, the PP output was 79.62 million tons (+1.62 million tons), and the operating rate was 77.75% (+1.14%). During the holiday, the devices were restarted one after another, leading to an increase in PP output and a decline in loss volume, intensifying the supply pressure [10][105]. - Scheduling ratio: The increase in the scheduling ratio of drawing may indicate that the short - term standard product is stronger than the non - standard product, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [114]. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - US dollar price: The prices in Northwestern Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. The Asian price has continued to be weak, with oversupply and weak demand in the Far East of CRB, and low prices in Southeast Asia due to sufficient supply and the impact of low - cost domestic goods; the supply - demand situation in South Asia is also poor [126]. - Import - export profit: The domestic market is in weak consolidation. Production enterprises' export offers remain stable, but overseas inquiries are few, and the transaction volume is limited. In terms of imports, China's prices are at the "global low point," and it is difficult to open import arbitrage opportunities [144]. Downstream Operating Rate - After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.76%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.08% compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.38%, while the operating rates of BOPP and CPP decreased by 0.67% and 1.68% respectively. The operating rate of PP pipe materials remained stable, and the operating rate of modified PP increased by 0.38% [10][147]. Position, Trading Volume and Warehouse Receipt Situation - The position volumes of PP_01, PP_05, and PP_09 contracts on October 10, 2025, were 658,901, 549,555, and 700,000 respectively [223][224][227]. - The trading volumes of PP_01, PP_05, and PP_09 contracts on October 10, 2025, were 1,500,000, 927,840, and 2,781,596 respectively [228][237][235]. - The number of registered PP warehouse receipts on October 10, 2025, was 17,191 [241].

中美贸易:中国对稀土等产品出口进行管制,美国拟对中国加征关税抗议 10月9日，商务部发布了两项关于加强稀土相关物项出口管制的公告，分别对境外相关稀土物页、稀土相关技术实施出口管制，同日下午，商务部还联合海关总署明 确对超硬材料、粘土设备和原辅料、软等5种中重稀土、锂电池和入造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制。稀土相关物项是本轮出口管制的重点。商务部新闻发言 人表示，根据《中华人民共和国出口管制法》《中华人民共和国两用例项出口管制条例》等相关法律法规。10月9日，经中国国务院批准，商务部发布2025年第6 号、62号公告、分别对含有中国成分的部分境外稀土相关物项、稀土相关技术实施出口管制。 10月11日，美国总统特朗普周五 (10 日) 表示，中国已向国际社会发出一封措辞强硬的信函。宣布将自 2025 年 11 月 1 日起对几乎所有产品实施大规模出口管 制。对此，特朗普宣布、美国将从同一天起对中国商品加征 100% 关税、作为现有关税的额外措施。并对所有关键软件实施出口管制，特朗普称，若中国提前采取 进一步行动,美国相关措施可能提前生效。 海外经济:美国政府停摆导致9月就业数据未发布 【宏观周报2025101 ...

Report Information - Report Title: 【MA周报20251012】制裁冲击或难抵高供应压力 [1][2] - Date: 2025-10-12 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Methanol's downward space is limited, with support at the [2200] price level. Although the current supply is high and demand is average, there are strong expectations for winter restrictions on Iranian devices and the peak season of the 01 contract in the future, which will improve the supply-demand situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cost, Supply, and Demand - **Cost and Profit**: The price of动力煤is mainly stable with a weak trend. The production profit of the coal - to - methanol end is at a high level, while the natural gas - to - methanol is under pressure [7]. - **Supply**: Domestic and foreign methanol device starts are recovering. In Iran, some devices have restarted, and in other regions, some devices have experienced maintenance and restarts [7]. - **Demand**: After the holiday, the price of MTO is relatively firm, and the profit of MTO has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [7]. 2. Regional Price and Logistics - **Regional Price**: The spot price has differentiated this week. The port price rebounded after following the futures price down, showing an overall upward trend, while the inland price has slightly declined [19]. - **Freight**: After the holiday, as the transportation capacity recovers, the freight rate has dropped significantly [40]. - **Logistics Window**: The domestic methanol trade flows from north to south and from west to east. The opening and closing of the logistics window help to balance regional price differences and supply - demand imbalances [48]. 3. Production - End Profit and Start - Up - **Production - End Profit**: The coal - to - methanol profit is high, while the natural gas - to - methanol profit is under pressure. The profit of different regions and processes varies [66]. - **Domestic Start - Up and Output**: The start - up rate has further recovered this week and is currently at a high level, but there is limited room for further improvement. The production capacity has increased, and the output of different processes also shows different trends [101]. 4. Import and Export - **Import Profit and Price Difference**: Globally, methanol prices are mainly falling. The import profit and price difference between regions vary, and attention should be paid to the price difference between Southeast Asia and China [128]. - **External - Disk Start - Up and Output**: The external - disk start - up rate is rising. Iranian devices have restarted, and the output in different regions also shows different trends [147]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: Affected by typhoons and high imports from Iran and non - Iran regions, the net import volume in August reached a record high, and the import pressure in subsequent months remains high [178]. 5. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream**: After the holiday, the MTO price is relatively firm, and the profit has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [184]. - **Traditional Downstream**: The downstream demand is relatively flat, and the start - up rate has slightly declined compared with before the holiday. The supply and demand situation of different traditional downstream industries varies [224]. 6. Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: The inland inventory has increased by 1.95 million tons to 33.94 million tons compared with last week, and the enterprise order backlog has decreased by 15.78 million tons to 11.52 million tons. The inventory has seasonally accumulated during the holiday, but the overall increase is not large [8][278]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory has increased by 5.1 million tons to 154.32 million tons compared with last week, with an increase of 4.78 million tons in East China and 0.32 million tons in South China [8].

【SH周报20251012】供需基本面变化有限,现货弱稳等待驱动 日期：2025-10-10 ZHESHANG FUTURE 【SH周报20251012】供需基本面变化有限，现货弱稳等待驱动 | | | ® 合约: SH601 ® 观点: 烧碱 等待做空机会,但上方空间也可能较大 ● 退領。 解威証联受配手页腾讯职称简单发艺集，现货价佳表现局强、市场围绕化工产业团和集团的记同样对俄媒体应带领维得了较强的部引，短期期顾或是现情景运行。但10台的处于手市出演季，后续随迁率领域，现 货价格或再度回落。 产业链操作建议 场外报价 套保比例(%) 情拐向 现货做口 策略推荐 套保行生品 入场价格 参与角色 行为导向 买卖 相关场外产品 买入看跌期权对库存进行报价,同时卖 买入 SH601P2400 100 38 | 生产企业 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下跌 | 安 | 出看涨期权，若不行权可以增强收益， | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 若行权可以实现高价卖出库存 | SH601C2800 ...