ZHESHANG FUTURE 【白糖周报20250718】窄幅震荡为主 日期: 2025-07-18 【白糖周报20250718】窄幅震荡为主 核心观点 ® 合约: SR509 ® 观点： 白糖 短期易跌难涨，但下方空间有限，在5600价位存在支撑 * 逻辑： 国外方面，UNCAଶ旋层示巴互2025/26作季开P阶段产量特领玩开元年同期，趣加乙礁隊伺居标提升，原闊阶段往存在支撑。但长期末看，205/26传季巴西种面高位，作物状况提好背景下顶好椅"，北半球主 产国种面集体增长，降水正常背景下预计同样增产，全球食糖供需维持竞松格局，中长期预计原糖价格承压运行为主。 国内方面，2024/25枠型收降ER航空增产，交易重心转向产销进度及进口糖加工情况。您瑞瑞费施看重牵冷以雪格路贸展开有一定好转，目前产销进度癫痫，但第三方库存情景，回内地应仍预计同时赏松。进口方面，烧粉进口 管制持续，但进口利润窗口已较早打开,预计原糖到港增量即将兑现,或能弥补产需缺口。 整体来看，全球增产局期尚未结束，中长期换加预计竞的船局持续，SR2500合约震荡偏弱看特，建议区间内逢高冶空为主。后续关注巴西生产、印度生产及取资碳变化、国内食精尸 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is pp2509. The Middle - East conflict has led to significant cost fluctuations, but from a fundamental perspective, over - capacity has further intensified the supply - demand pressure. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, with a concentrated release in June and July, increasing production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load remains stable. Supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is only slightly improved [1]. - Polyethylene is also in an oscillating downward phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is 12509. The Middle - East conflict has caused cost fluctuations, but fundamentally, the supply - demand situation remains weak due to over - capacity. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, resulting in huge production and sales pressure. The existing production load is acceptable, and supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is in a off - season [7]. - In the first half of 2025, although the prices of polyolefins declined as expected, the decline was not large compared to other chemicals. PP showed an oscillating downward trend, while L had a more fluent decline. In Q2, macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict dominated, causing polyolefins to fluctuate widely. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the impact of trade wars and geopolitical issues fades, the focus may shift back to the fundamentals, which still feature high production and a balanced supply - demand situation. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and cost disturbances such as those from crude oil and methanol need to be noted [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Price: In Q1, polyolefin prices oscillated downward, with a significant decline at the beginning of the year due to increased supply pressure and a slowdown in downstream demand. In Q2, they fluctuated widely due to macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The 12505 contract rebounded due to strong demand for agricultural films in North China [8][14]. - Basis: In mid - January, the basis of polyolefins declined, especially for L. In February and March, the basis changed little. After late March, the basis trends of PP and L diverged, with PP's spot price being stronger and L's basis oscillating downward [14]. - Spread: The PF59 monthly spread showed an upward trend, especially in March and April, mainly reflecting the expected pressure from future production [14]. - Disk Spread: Since January, the L - P spread has been declining, mainly due to the alleviation of L's supply shortage after new device installations. After the Spring Festival, L strengthened again due to better downstream demand. In April, the L - PP spread further declined and then rebounded slightly [26]. - Methanol Price: Methanol prices have been weakening since January, but rebounded strongly after the Israel - Iran conflict, causing MTO profits to deteriorate [26]. 2. Supply Domestic Capacity Installation - PP: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that over 700 million tons of new devices would be installed, mainly in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, a total of 2.855 million tons of 6 new devices were installed, slightly lower than expected, but the capacity pressure continued to increase. The main installation processes were oil - based (1.855 million tons) and coal - based (1 million tons) [47]. - PE: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that 5.8 million tons of new PE devices would be installed, with a relatively even quarterly distribution. In the first half of the year, a total of 3.03 million tons of new devices were installed, exceeding half of the plan. The installation progress was smooth, and the pressure of new installations will continue in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, more standard - grade products were installed, while in the second half, non - standard products will be the focus [48]. Production - End Profits - Crude Oil: In Q1, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. The price increase in December was driven by increased heating demand and concerns about supply shortages. In January, prices started to decline due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel. In Q2, prices fluctuated widely due to trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The production profit of polyolefins from oil first recovered and then deteriorated, but the pressure on enterprises was not significant [62]. - Coal: High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits [62]. - Methanol: Since late February, methanol prices have first rebounded and then declined, causing MTO profits to first deteriorate and then recover slightly, but overall profits were not good [62]. Domestic Production Volume and Load - PP: Since 2025, due to good production - end profits, enterprises have been more willing to start production, and the number of maintenance days was less than expected. With the high - load operation of existing capacity and the installation of new devices, PP production has continuously reached new highs. As of June, the total production volume was 19.4186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. All production processes, including oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based, have increased production [102]. - PE: PE supply has also increased significantly, but production decreased in May due to increased maintenance. As of June, the total PE production volume was 16.1505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.05%. The increase mainly came from LLD and LD products [110]. Import and Export - PP: As of May, the import volume was 1.3949 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.17%, and the export volume was 1.3286 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.56%. The net import volume was 26,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 94.71%. Affected by the squeeze of domestic supply, the import - export pattern of PP has further reversed, and China has become a net exporter since March [125]. - PE: As of May, the cumulative domestic PE import volume was 5.9651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%, and the export volume was 415,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. The cumulative net import volume was 5.5499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The import - export of PE has both increased, and the pattern is relatively stable, but the reduction in imports caused by previous trade conflicts will start to be reflected in June [131]. 3. Demand PP Demand - In the first half of the year, demand was weak during the Spring Festival, but recovered quickly after the festival and entered the peak season in March and April. However, in Q2, demand from downstream industries gradually weakened, and export demand was affected by trade wars. In the future, as the off - season continues, market demand will remain weak [155]. PE Demand - PE demand has more obvious seasonal characteristics. In January, it was in the off - season, but after the Spring Festival, demand for agricultural films recovered, driving up prices. However, after April and May, demand declined as the agricultural film season ended [209]. 4. Inventory - PP Inventory: During the Spring Festival, inventory accumulated seasonally but less than expected. In March, inventory decreased due to high downstream demand. In Q2, inventory remained at a high level, reflecting the high - supply situation [221].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share's core contradiction lies internally, with a clear bottom - line for stock indices. The upside space depends on economic fundamental repair and incremental funds, and also requires reduced trading volume. The "dumbbell strategy" is effective, and the basis brings an overweight opportunity for CSI 1000. However, the current annualized basis rate of stock index futures has significantly converged, so it is recommended to temporarily take profit on the IM2509 strategy and wait for a new entry opportunity [3]. - International situations are complex, but market expectations are sufficient, and disturbances from Sino - US and Israel - Iran issues are limited. The Fed's interest rate decision has a greater external impact. A rate cut is beneficial for RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflow, and new incremental funds, which may start as early as September. Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, with a clear bottom - line for stock indices, and new technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations. After the risk - free rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and individual investors will enter a new cycle. A breakthrough must be accompanied by increased trading volume, and a two - market trading volume of 1.5 trillion (MA5) is a signal [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - This week, domestic indices rose first and then fell, while the US index reached a new high. As of June 26, 2025, the Nasdaq index rose 3.70%, the S&P 500 index rose 2.90%, the Hang Seng Tech index rose 4.13%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.64%, the CSI 1000 index rose 4.14%, the SSE 50 index rose 2.42%, the ChiNext index rose 5.20%, and the STAR 50 index rose 3.35%. Most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices rose this week, with sectors such as computers, non - bank finance, and national defense and military industry rising more than 5%, and only a few sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals and food and beverages falling [12][16]. 3.2 Liquidity - In May, the growth rate of social financing was stable, and the growth rate of M2 declined slightly. The capital interest rate (DR007) remained low, and the net MLF investment in May was 37.5 billion yuan. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing in May remained at a relatively high level, with government bond financing being an important support, while credit growth was still weak. The incremental social financing in May was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale increased by 8.7% year - on - year, remaining flat month - on - month. The growth rate of M2 declined slightly but remained stable overall, the growth rate of M1 increased, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed [17]. 3.3 Trading Data and Sentiment - Stock indices rose first and then fell this week. The number of new accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, and in May continued to drop to 1.555 million. Domestic stock indices rose first and then fell this week, and the trading volume of the two markets increased to around 1.5 trillion [26]. 3.4 Index Valuation - As of June 26, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.06, with a percentile of 68.03, and the latest PE of the Wande All - A was 19.80, with a percentile of 08.30. In terms of major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were CSI 1000 < CSI 500 < CSI 300 < SSE 50. The index valuation is in the median range [37]. 3.5 Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - For the SSE 50, the weights of banks, food and beverages, and non - bank finance are relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the CSI 300 are relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries are banks, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are exactly the same, namely electronics, medicine and biology, and power equipment, but the weight of the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 is higher [43][46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Due to the impact of risk - aversion sentiment, domestic stock indices continued to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to make long - term allocations for IH2509 and IF2509, and move positions from IM2506 to IM2509 as the June contract of IM is approaching maturity and its annualized basis rate is relatively high [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, most domestic and foreign indices declined this week. The Nasdaq rose 0.22%, the S&P 500 fell 0.15%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.08%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.74%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.10%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.55%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices declined, with sectors such as beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical biology falling more than 3%, while only a few sectors such as banking and communications rose [11][12]. Liquidity - In May, the growth rate of social financing was stable, and the growth rate of M2 declined slightly. The net MLF investment in May was 375 billion yuan, and the 10 - year government bond yield was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing remained relatively high, with government bond financing being an important support, but credit growth was still weak. The M2 growth rate declined slightly but remained stable overall, the M1 growth rate increased, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed [22]. Trading Data and Sentiment - The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict led to the weakening of stock indices this week. The trading volume of the two markets shrank to around one trillion yuan. The number of new A - share accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, and in May continued to drop to 1.555 million [34]. Index Valuation - Index valuations are in the median range. As of June 20, 2025, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.64 with a quantile of 64.72, and the latest PE of the Wande All - A Index was 19.18 with a quantile of 01.82. In terms of major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50 [51]. Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banking, food and beverage, and non - bank finance are relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the SSE 300 are relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are exactly the same, namely electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, but the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 has a higher weight [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the easing of Sino-US relations, the center of the stock index moved up this week. It is recommended to have a long - position allocation for IH2506 and IF2506, and also allocate more IM2506 as its annualized basis rate is relatively high [2][3] - Pay attention to the subsequent Sino - US negotiations and the window period for the intensive introduction of pro - growth policies before the end of June, which may trigger a structural market [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 5, 2025, most global and domestic indices showed an upward trend this week. For example, the Nasdaq index rose 0.97%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.47%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.88%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 1.6%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices rose, with beauty care, textile and apparel, and comprehensive industries leading the gains, while household appliances, public utilities, and coal industries leading the losses [11][12] Liquidity - In April, the growth rate of social financing increased significantly, and the growth rate of M2 rebounded. The net MLF投放 in May was 37.5 billion yuan. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing in April exceeded expectations, mainly supported by government bond financing. The M2 growth rate rebounded, while the M1 growth rate declined month - on - month, and the M1 - M2 gap widened, indicating insufficient economic vitality [17][22] Trading Data and Sentiment - The trading volume of the two markets slightly rebounded to around 1.2 trillion yuan. The number of new stock account openings decreased from 3.06 million in March to 1.555 million in May. Due to the easing of Sino - US relations and the increasing probability of a US interest rate cut in the second half of the year, trading volume increased slightly this week, and the stock index strengthened [24][33] Index Valuation - Index valuations are in the median range. As of June 5, 2025, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.64, with a quantile of 64.75, and the latest PE was 19.19, with a quantile of 62.04. The valuation quantiles of major stock indices are in the order of CSI 500 < CSI 300 < CSI 1000 < SSE 50 [35][50] Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banking, food and beverage, and non - banking finance are relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry [51] - The weights of the CSI 300 are relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - banking finance, and electronics. Stocks such as Hygon Information and Cambricon have been included in the index [51] - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are the same, namely electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, but the weight of the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 is higher [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Methanol is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The reasons are that Iranian plants are operating at high capacity, the supply is rapidly recovering, non-Iranian imports are also increasing, and the import volume has reached a five-year high. The domestic load has climbed to a high level after the Qingming Festival. With the return of domestic and foreign supply, the production pressure of methanol has increased. Although the subsequent MTO start-up is expected to increase, the traditional demand is average and will enter the off-season, making it difficult to digest the increased supply. Overall, methanol will enter a weakening period and start seasonal inventory accumulation [5]. - The prices of both the futures and spot markets of methanol have declined significantly. After the temporary improvement in trading due to the suspension of tariffs last week, the market has returned to a weak reality. The fundamentals have changed little this week, with the start-up in Iran recovering. There are still sufficient expectations for imports in the future. Although the Sierbang plant has restarted, the traditional downstream will enter the off-season, increasing the pressure. Currently, methanol is in a bearish scenario, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of inventory accumulation in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - End Profit and Load - **Production Profit**:动力煤价格弱势下行，目前处于季节性用电淡季，新能源、水电等清洁能源发电量增长，电厂日耗低位，港口出货以终端长协为主，市场参与者观望情绪浓厚，降库压力仍存，产地维持正常生产，下游多以刚需拉运为主。煤制端生产利润依然丰厚，天然气制利润承压 [48]. - **Domestic Start - up and Output**:近期部分装置检修，导致开工下滑，但整体仍处于高位。煤制开工是关注重点，占比70%以上，天然气制开工有明显季节性，焦炉气制受环保因素影响。甲醇日产量方面，非CTO总量为136,653吨，煤制（不含联醇）为110,000吨，天然气制为19,384吨等 [72][88]. Import Profit, External Supply, and Import Volume - **Import Profit and Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets**: The global methanol price has weakened. The CFR China price has declined following the domestic price. Although Southeast Asian plants are under maintenance, the demand is weak, and the price has dropped. The Indian price has decreased, and the European price has continued to decline significantly after stabilizing. The supply from the external market has increased, but there are few buyers. The import profit of Iranian goods and the price differences between Southeast Asia, India, the US, and Europe and China have shown different trends [99]. - **External Start - up Load and Output**: The external start - up has rebounded. The 1.65 - million - ton plant of Iranian usadana has reportedly restarted, and the start - up rates of Kareh and 2PC have also recovered. In other regions, a 1.3 - million - ton plant in Egypt has shut down, the 1.7 - million - ton plant of Petronas in Southeast Asia has been under maintenance since early May, and the Brunei plant is planned to be under maintenance at the end of May. The global daily start - up rates and daily outputs of different regions such as the Middle East, Iran, the US, South America, and Europe have different values [116][140]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: In April, the import volume was 787,700 tons, the export volume was 54,400 tons, and the net import volume was 723,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 262,700 tons compared to March. With the recovery of Iranian start - up, the import volume will rebound to a high level in May and June. The total arrival volume in the week was 180,000 tons, with 480,000 tons in East China and 460,000 tons in South China [151][146]. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream Profit and Load**: As the price of port methanol has declined, the profit of MTO has recovered, but the MTO plants in the inland are relatively under pressure due to the firm methanol price. In terms of plants, Sierbang was expected to be under maintenance from April 15 and restarted on May 19, Xingxing has increased its load to full capacity, Ningxia Baofeng Phase II is under maintenance until early June, Shandong Hengtong's MTO plant is operating at a low load, and China Coal Shaanxi Yulin plans to shut down for maintenance on May 10 for 40 days [155]. - **Traditional Downstream Profit and Load**: The traditional downstream is gradually weakening, but the profit has improved due to the decline in methanol price. Formaldehyde enterprises are under increasing pressure as the downstream panel factories enter the off - season and mainly make rigid demand purchases. The acetic acid plant is operating at a high level with relatively low overall pressure, and the dimethyl ether market has weak supply and demand. The MTBE load has declined from a high level, and MTBE production enterprises are suffering serious losses due to the decline in crude oil and refined oil prices. Currently, there are still export orders for support, but the future is expected to be weak. The profit and start - up of BDO are poor, and downstream buyers mainly make rigid demand purchases [189][195]. Inland and Port Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: According to Longzhong data, the inland inventory increased by 200 tons to 336,000 tons this week, and the enterprise order backlog was 235,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,400 tons. The market sentiment is poor, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased, and the transactions have decreased, resulting in a decline in the backlog of orders from sample enterprises and relatively stable inventory [234]. - **Port Inventory**: According to Zhuochuang data, the port inventory has slightly increased by 10,500 tons to 629,500 tons this week, with an increase of 32,000 tons in East China and a decrease of 21,500 tons in South China. The提货 volume has increased month - on - month, but the arrivals are also increasing, and the inventory in the downstream social warehouses and factory raw material warehouses has increased to a certain extent [260].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the impact of shrinking trading volume, the stock index fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to have long positions in 182506 and IP2506, and also allocate more to IM2506 because of its relatively high annualized basis rate [5]. - The joint statement between China and the US, domestic economic data improvement, policy support, capital market reforms, and "national team" actions are important factors supporting the market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - Domestic indices continued to fluctuate weakly this week, while US stocks fell significantly. By May 23, 2025, the NASDAQ fell 2.47%, the S&P 500 fell 2.61%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.65%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.57%, the CSI 1000 fell 1.23%, the SSE 50 fell 0.18%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.88%, and the STAR 50 fell 1.47%. The performance of Shenwan's primary 31 industry indices was divergent, with sectors such as medicine, biology, non - ferrous metals, and automobiles rising, and sectors such as computers, machinery, and electronics falling [13][14]. Liquidity - In April, the growth rate of social financing increased significantly, and the growth rate of M2 rebounded. The net MLF investment in April was 50 billion yuan. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7% year - on - year, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. More than 80% of the 1.16 trillion yuan increase in social financing came from new government bond financing. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, the M1 growth rate declined month - on - month, and the M1 - M2 gap widened to - 6.5%, indicating insufficient economic vitality [24]. Trading Data and Sentiment - The trading volume of the two markets continued to decline to around one trillion yuan. The number of new stock account openings in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, and in April it dropped to 1.92 million [27][37]. Index Valuation - As of May 23, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.48, with a percentile of 62.56, and the latest PE of the All - A Index was 18.95, with a percentile of 59.90. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentile ranking was CSI 500 < CSI 1000 < SSE 300 < SSE 50 [53]. Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banks, food and beverage, and non - bank finance were relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics sector became the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the SSE 300 were relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were exactly the same, namely electronics, medicine and biology, and power equipment, but the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 had a higher weight [54].

Report Title - The report is titled "Weekly Oil Report 20250509: Accumulation of Malaysian Palm Oil Stocks Gradually Realized, Oil Price Spread Repair" [1][2][10] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints Palm Oil - The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] level for the p2509 contract. The Southeast Asian palm oil production is in a seasonal transition phase, with subsequent production expected to recover, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium to long term. The Indonesian B40 policy has not been clearly implemented, and its positive impact is expected to be limited. Domestic inventory is low, and subsequent ship purchases are slow, resulting in tight supply, but low cost - effectiveness restricts demand. Overall, short - term macro sentiment has eased, but there is still a weakening expectation in the future, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the 09 spreads of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm [3] Soybean Oil - The downside space is limited, with support at the [7500] level for the y2509 contract. Globally, South American soybeans are in a continuous high - yield pattern, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The fundamental pressure on US soybeans is limited, but the expected decline in the new - season planting area and the upgrade of China - US tariffs are negative for US soybean exports. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, but the downside space may be limited, with support around 950 cents per bushel. Domestically, the supply of imported soybeans is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the soybean oil inventory is at a neutral level, with supply expected to remain loose. In the medium to long term, the impact of weather is expected to increase due to the significant reduction in US planting area, and the uncertainty of China - US trade relations remains. It is recommended to buy on dips for the y2509 contract, and pay attention to the regression opportunity of the 09 soybean - palm spread and the short - selling opportunity of the oil - tank ratio [3][6] Rapeseed Oil - In the short term, it is prone to rise but the upside space is limited, with resistance at the [9700] level for the OI509 contract. Globally, the supply - demand of oilseeds in the 2024/25 season remains loose, but the supply - demand of rapeseeds has tightened marginally due to the slight reduction in Canadian rapeseed production and frost - induced减产 in the EU. The high - yield expectation of South American new crops still exerts pressure on the oilseed sector. Domestically, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and the supply of near - month rapeseeds and rapeseed oil is expected to remain loose. Recently, China's tariff policy on Canada has strengthened the downside support for rapeseed oil, but the domestic loose supply may limit the upside space. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and there may be phased long - buying opportunities in the medium to long term. Attention should be paid to the regression opportunity of the 09 rapeseed - palm spread [4] Summary by Directory Southeast Asian Palm Oil - The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations this week. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production is being gradually realized, and the inventory accumulation expectation has put obvious pressure on the futures price. The increase in purchase intentions from China and India and the slight rebound in international crude oil prices led to a rebound after the price hit an eight - month low. High - frequency data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in April increased by 3.6 - 5.1% month - on - month, but production is expected to increase by 14.74 - 19.88% month - on - month, and it is expected that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory to 156 - 175 tons in April. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 5 increased by 19.88% month - on - month, and production increased by 60.17% month - on - month. In Indonesia, the export reference price of crude palm oil in May 2025 has been lowered. In India, the import of palm oil increased in March due to post - Ramadan restocking demand, but there are rumors that India may raise the import tariff on edible oils, which may suppress import demand [15][22] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybean futures fluctuated weakly this week. The ongoing South American soybean harvest season and concerns about demand have put pressure on the market. The good dry weather in the US Midwest is expected to facilitate soybean planting. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate reached 30%, higher than last year and the five - year average. As of May 6, about 15% of the US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought, similar to the previous week. As of April 24, the cumulative export of US soybeans in the 24/25 season was 4327.96 tons, a 12.78% increase year - on - year, and the completion rate of the USDA's forecast is 95.46%. The weather in the US Midwest is generally good this week, with limited rainfall opportunities later [31][32][33] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - The South American soybean harvest is coming to an end, and the high - yield expectation is becoming a reality. The USDA's April supply - demand report estimated a record - high production of 169 million tons for Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season and a reduced production of 49 million tons for Argentine soybeans. As of May 3, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 97.7%, a 2.9% increase from last week. Various institutions expect an increase in Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season compared to the previous year. The Argentine soybean harvest progress as of April 29 was accelerating, and the BAGE estimated the 2024/25 Argentine soybean production to be 50 million tons [64][65][69] Global Rapeseeds and Rapeseed Oil - The global rapeseed supply in the 2024/25 season has tightened marginally. The USDA's April report showed a slight decline in global rapeseed production compared to the previous year. Exports and crushing of rapeseeds have both been adjusted downwards. The ending inventory has increased slightly, and the stock - to - consumption ratio has recovered to 10.41%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level in recent years. Canada is expected to see a 1.7% decline in rapeseed planting area in 2025. In the past two weeks, precipitation in the Canadian prairie provinces has been relatively low, but it is expected to improve in the next week. As of May 4, the Canadian rapeseed oil export volume increased by 8.02% week - on - week to 18.45 tons [76][77][78] Domestic Oils Market Review - This week, domestic oils showed a more differentiated performance. Palm oil and soybean oil fluctuated weakly, while rapeseed oil was relatively strong. Palm oil was dragged down by the expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia, and the domestic import profit has been rapidly repaired, stimulating near - month ship purchases. Soybean oil was affected by the weak external market and the unclear macro - environment. Rapeseed oil was supported by China - Canada trade relations and tariff policies, and the dry weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas also contributed to its strength [97] Future Outlook - Palm oil: Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but medium - to - long - term production increases may limit the upside. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for distant - month palm oil on rallies. The soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm spreads are expected to repair, but the repair rhythm may be slow. - Soybean oil: It is recommended to buy on dips for the y2509 contract. Pay attention to the regression opportunity of the 09 soybean - palm spread and the short - selling opportunity of the oil - tank ratio. - Rapeseed oil: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there may be phased long - buying opportunities in the medium to long term. Pay attention to the export situation in Canada, domestic arrivals, crushing, and提货 situations [97][98][99] Pressing, Production, and Consumption - In the 18th week (April 26 - May 2), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 152.3 tons, and the开机率 was 42.81%. It is expected to increase to 174.3 tons in the 19th week, with an开机率 of 49%. The trading volume of soybean oil decreased. As of April 30, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 9.55 tons, a decrease from the previous period, and the rapeseed oil production decreased to 3.92 tons. The提货 volume increased slightly. The trading volume of palm oil increased this week [101][102] Inventory - As of April 28, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean, palm, and rapeseed) in key domestic regions was 177.88 tons, a 0.90% increase from last week and a 5.94% increase year - on - year. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventory increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly [126] Basis and Spread - This week, the soybean oil spot basis was weakly adjusted, with northern prices remaining firm and southern prices starting to decline. The palm oil basis declined steadily, and the rapeseed oil basis was slightly adjusted downwards. As of May 9, the September basis of soybean oil (Tianjin) was 395 yuan/ton, the September basis of palm oil (Guangzhou) was 579 yuan/ton, and the September basis of rapeseed oil (Zhangjiagang) was 230 yuan/ton [155]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that China's Q1 2025 economy exceeded expectations, with GDP growing by 5.4% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to address tariff impacts. The global economic situation is complex, with factors such as tariffs, inflation, and employment affecting different countries' economies [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP and Consumption**: In Q1 2025, China's GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, growing 5.4% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 were 12.4671 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year-on-year increase. In March, it grew 5.9% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points faster than January - February [4][21]. - **Investment**: Q1 fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 10.3174 trillion yuan, a 4.2% year-on-year increase. Excluding real estate development investment, it grew 6.3%. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments increased by 5.8% and 9.1% respectively [4][21]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In Q1, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% [21]. - **Exports and Imports**: In March, exports increased by 13.5% in RMB terms and 12.4% in US dollars. Imports decreased by 3.5% in RMB and 4.3% in US dollars. The improvement in March exports may be related to pre - export, and the future foreign trade situation remains severe [5]. 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - **Social Financing**: In Q1 2025, the cumulative social financing increment was 15.18 trillion yuan, with 5.89 trillion yuan in March, a year - on - year increase of 1.06 trillion yuan. Loans and government bonds are the main factors supporting social financing [35]. - **Credit**: In Q1, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, with 3.4 trillion yuan in March. The credit structure was further optimized, and the effective demand continued to recover [35]. 3.3 Inflation Indicators - **CPI**: In March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, affecting the CPI decrease [41]. - **PPI**: In March, the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in international commodity prices [41]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - **US Inflation**: In March 2025, the US CPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 2.4% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and 2.8% year - on - year, still higher than the Fed's target [48]. - **US Employment**: In March, the US non - farm sector added 228,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The employment data was better than expected [49]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rates**: The RMB against the US dollar has shown two - way fluctuations. Recently, it was under pressure but remained within a range. Short - term risks include Fed policy divergence and geopolitical instability [56]. - **Interest Rates**: There are data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields, reflecting the current interest rate situation [58].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the future. In late 2024, multiple new units were put into operation intensively, and the production of units in 2025 continued throughout the year, resulting in huge production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load was also high, leading to a supply much higher than the historical average. Although the demand has entered the traditional peak season, the support is limited. Overall, due to over - capacity, the supply - demand relationship is weak, and the expectation of crude oil on the cost side is also weak, so the price center of polypropylene is expected to move down oscillatingly [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Affected by the tariff storm and the sharp decline in crude oil, the PP price dropped significantly at the beginning of the week but temporarily stopped falling and stabilized due to supply concerns. The East China basis remained at around - 20 yuan/ton, the North China basis ranged from 10 to - 100 yuan/ton, and the South China basis strengthened from 80 to - 70 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend but was generally stronger than the standard product [19]. - **Regional Spread**: The North China - East China spread was relatively strong, while the South China - East China spread was at a low level. The spread between injection molding - drawing and low - melt copolymer - drawing in the non - standard basis changed little [30][31]. - **Related Product Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of the futures strengthened to 124 during the week and then fell back to 76, indicating a weaker far - month expectation. The L - PP06 spread weakened to a minimum of 50 this week, and the PP - Wh spread increased slightly. The significant decline in the L - P3 spread was due to the potential production loss of the BBI process on the PP supply side caused by the propane import tariff counter - measure and the weaker demand for PE after the peak season. With the large - scale restart of Iranian plants, the load recovered and the shipping volume exceeded expectations, MA dropped sharply, and the MTO profit was significantly repaired to the level of the same period last year [36]. 3.2 Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: After the sharp decline last week, the crude oil price oscillated this week. The oil - making profit improved due to the weakening of the cost side. On April 4, the tariff on imported propane from the US increased, which would increase the import cost of liquefied petroleum gas in the short term and tighten the domestic supply. In the long term, the domestic pricing target may shift to ether - after carbon four. High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits, and the decline in methanol prices in the production area slightly improved MTO profits [41][42]. - **Domestic Output and Load**: This week, the PP output was 73.16 tons (- 0.04 tons), and the operating rate was 76.38% (- 0.05%). The supply loss of PP was 19.28 tons, including 12.47 tons of maintenance loss and 6.81 tons of production reduction loss. The previously shut - down units restarted one after another, the maintenance volume decreased, and the supply increased. In the future, attention should be paid to the maintenance of PDR units. On the other hand, the significant repair of oil - making profit increased the willingness to start production [8][59]. - **Scheduling Ratio**: An increase in the drawing scheduling ratio may indicate that the standard product is stronger than the non - standard product in the short term, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [78]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Europe and the US declined, especially in Northwest Europe. Asian prices mostly fell, and CFR Far East was greatly affected by the tariff policy. The demand in Southeast Asia was weak, and market transactions were cautious. The South Asian prices remained stable. The spread between CFR China and Northwest Europe was at a low level [87][88]. - **Import - Export Profit**: Although the RMB exchange rate weakened, the concern about tariffs led to a significant decline in overseas inquiries and export transactions, making it difficult to consume resources. On the import side, the overseas offers were few and expensive, and imports were blocked [104]. 3.4 Downstream Operating Rate - The downstream is still in the peak season. The comprehensive operating rate decreased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the downstream. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat, the demand for fertilizer bags continued, and the demand for cement and food was also acceptable. In addition, the operating rate of injection molding increased by 1.2%, and the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.8%. As the temperature rises, the demand for storage boxes, milk tea cups, and disposable transparent products continues to be released [9][107]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 2.07 tons to 63.71 tons, including a 1.07 - ton increase in the inventory of two major oil companies and a 0.7 - ton increase in the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises. The market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened. The inventory of traders decreased by 0.54 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.02 tons. Due to the decrease in overseas inquiries and the decline in export transactions, the port inventory fluctuated slightly [10][123].