货币的“抉择”系列二：真正的宽货币周期开启

Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank announced a comprehensive easing policy including a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds[7] - The 7-day OMO rate was cut by 20 basis points to 1.5%, leading to a 30 basis point reduction in the MLF rate to 2.0%[7] - Average stock mortgage rates were lowered by 50 basis points, aligning the minimum down payment ratio for first and second homes at 15%[7] Market Impact - The shift in monetary policy from "stable currency + stable exchange rate" to "loose currency + loose credit" is evident, with long-term bond yields declining rapidly[5] - The market's pricing power for long-term bond yields is expected to increase significantly as the central bank reduces its risk warnings regarding long-term government bond yields[16] - The introduction of stock market support tools aims to inject positive expectations into the capital market, which will also benefit the real economy[5] Credit and Housing Market - The private sector is still in a deleveraging phase, with conditions for stabilizing credit dependent on asset price recovery and finding new anchors for credit growth[13] - The average stock mortgage rate is projected to be around 3.7%, still 35 basis points higher than new mortgage rates, indicating further room for rate cuts[11] - The rental-to-sale ratio is expected to decrease from approximately 3% to about 2.5%, potentially narrowing the decline in housing prices by 15%-20%[16] Risks - Ongoing risks include continued declines in real estate prices and persistent credit contraction in the private sector[17]