银行专题｜金融政策组合拳的综合影响：银行经营与流动性

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and a "Hold" rating to Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1][1][1][1][1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent policy measures, if implemented, will have a short-term negative impact on banks' net interest margins, revenues, and pre-tax profits, with expected declines of -10 basis points, -5.2 percentage points, and -11.6 percentage points respectively for 2025 [1][1][1]. - The report emphasizes that while there may be short-term pressure on margins and profits, the long-term effects of these policies will help stabilize scale and reduce risks [1][1][1]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Impact of Policies - Recent policies are expected to target both asset and liability sides of banks, including a 50 basis point reduction in existing mortgage loan rates and a 20 basis point reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [6][6]. - The asset-side policies are projected to have a short-term negative impact on banks' net interest margins and profits, with specific impacts of -1.4 basis points on net interest margin and -1.8 percentage points on pre-tax profit for 2024E [6][6]. - Long-term benefits include stabilizing the scale of mortgage loans and reducing risks associated with rising non-performing loans [6][6]. 2. Capital Supplementation for Major Banks - The report discusses plans for major banks to increase their core Tier 1 capital to enhance their ability to serve the real economy and maintain dividend payouts [2][2]. 3. Real Estate Policy Measures - The report outlines a dual approach to real estate policy, focusing on both demand and supply. Demand-side measures include lowering mortgage rates and adjusting down payment ratios, while supply-side measures aim to alleviate financing pressures on real estate companies [2][2]. 4. Risk Mitigation - The report indicates that financial risks related to real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions are gradually being mitigated, contributing to improved asset quality for banks [2][2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in bank stocks due to their defensive nature and high dividend yields, particularly favoring Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and major state-owned banks like Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China [3][3].