2024年第38周周报：运营商用户增长，全球算力亟待新信号

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the communication equipment and services industry, consistent with the previous rating [2] Core Investment Views - The global DCI market is expected to experience high growth over the next five years, driven by increasing demand for data center interconnectivity [3] - The three major Chinese telecom operators (China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom) have shown steady user growth as of August 2024, with significant increases in 5G and broadband subscribers [4][7] - China Mobile: 10 02 billion total users, 556 6 million new 5G users (53 27% penetration), 3 11 billion broadband users - China Telecom: 3 43 billion 5G users (81 5% penetration), 1 95 billion broadband users - China Unicom: 10 9 billion "Big Connection" users, adding 1 27 billion new users - US optical module companies have seen significant stock price increases, with Coherent (Finisar) reaching a market cap of 93 billion RMB and AAOI doubling its market cap since August 2024 [4][8] - The report predicts gradual clarity in demand for 800G optical modules in 2025, with potential for upward revisions, while 1 6T modules are expected to see larger-scale adoption in 2026 [4][8] Market Performance - The communication sector underperformed the broader market last week, with the sector rising 0 29% compared to the CSI 300's 1 32% gain [8][9] - Communication equipment sub-sector: -0 52% - Communication services sub-sector: +1 88% - Top performing stocks in the sector included Datang Telecom (+33 05%), Dingxin Communication (+21 43%), and Yitong Century (+21 10%) [10][11] - Underperforming stocks included Dafu Technology (-12 35%), Shenyu Shares (-7 21%), and ST Pengbo (-6 17%) [10][11] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the investment value of photoelectric interconnection in the global AI industry [4][8] - Consider state-owned enterprises with stable growth and high dividend yields, as well as opportunities in emerging business models [4][8] - Explore new connectivity investment themes such as low-altitude economy, satellite communication, and vehicle communication [4][8] - Monitor leading companies in promising sectors like IoT and submarine cables during economic recovery [4][8] Upcoming Events - Key announcements and events for the week of September 23-29 include: - Shenyu Shares: Dividend distribution [12] - Datang Telecom: Earnings conference [12] - Runze Technology: Shareholders' meeting registration [12] - ZTT: Earnings conference [13] - China Unicom: Shareholders' meeting [13]