商业贸易行业周报：“以旧换新”成效初显，补贴类目销售喜人

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the August retail sales growth rate was 2.1%, which is below market expectations of 2.68% [1][7]. - The "trade-in" policy has shown initial effectiveness, particularly in boosting demand for home appliances and 3C products, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [1][14]. - The report emphasizes the need for stronger fiscal policies to stimulate consumption and address the ongoing economic recovery challenges [1][14]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In August 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1%. The retail sales of goods amounted to 34,375 billion yuan, growing by 1.9% [7][12]. - Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods totaled 34,783 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [7][12]. - The cumulative retail sales from January to August 2024 reached 312,500 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.4% year-on-year [7][12]. Consumer Behavior Trends - Essential consumer goods showed stable growth, with categories like food and beverages growing by 10.1% and 2.7% respectively, while optional consumer goods continued to struggle [14][15]. - The report notes a significant decline in the sales of automobiles, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% in August [1][14]. Travel and Tourism Insights - The report indicates a rise in short-distance travel, with a notable increase in cross-regional movement during the Mid-Autumn Festival, reaching 62.96 million people [16][22]. - Domestic tourism during the Mid-Autumn Festival saw 1.1 billion trips, recovering to 106.3% of the 2019 levels, with total spending reaching 51.05 billion yuan [22][35]. Duty-Free Shopping Trends - Duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a significant decline, with sales amounting to 2.197 billion yuan in August, down 33.12% year-on-year [27]. - The average spending per person in duty-free shopping during the Mid-Autumn Festival was 5,943 yuan, reflecting a decrease compared to previous years [27].