宏观观点：日本自民党总裁选举：多人混战，史无前例

Group 1: Election Overview - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election will be held on September 27, 2024, with 9 candidates participating, the highest number in history[8] - Shigeru Ishiba leads in public support with 31%, followed by Sanae Takaichi at 28%, and Shinjiro Koizumi at 14%[10] - The election outcome will significantly influence Japan's political and economic direction, as the winner will succeed Fumio Kishida as Prime Minister[8] Group 2: Candidate Policies and Market Impact - Shigeru Ishiba advocates for correcting Abenomics, emphasizing fiscal discipline and gradual return to positive interest rates, which could negatively impact Japanese stocks and bonds if elected[12] - Sanae Takaichi supports Abenomics and opposes further interest rate hikes, arguing that external factors drive inflation; her election would likely benefit Japanese stocks and bonds[12] - Shinjiro Koizumi proposes a mixed approach, continuing Abenomics while advocating for deregulation; his election would be favorable for stocks but have a neutral impact on bonds[12] Group 3: Election Dynamics - The election process involves a total of 736 votes, split evenly between National Diet members and local party representatives, with a potential second round if no candidate secures a majority[9] - The distribution of votes among the 9 candidates may lead to a fragmented first round, complicating the path to victory for any single candidate[11] - Historical context shows that local party votes can significantly influence outcomes, as seen in previous elections where candidates with strong local support faced challenges in the Diet votes[11]