2024家电行业秋季策略：政策加持下，刚需+高估息组合比较优势明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [1]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry is expected to benefit from policies promoting replacement and upgrades, with a focus on essential needs and high dividend yields providing a comparative advantage [1][2]. - The white goods sector is projected to see stable growth due to low valuations and high dividends, while the small appliances segment, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, continues to grow rapidly both domestically and internationally [2]. - The black goods sector is experiencing long-term structural improvements, with short-term panel prices stabilizing [2]. Summary by Sections White Goods - The white goods sector is benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, leading to stable growth despite a high base in domestic sales and significant growth in exports [7][10]. - The air conditioning market is expected to see a rebound in sales growth due to favorable policies and seasonal demand [10]. Small Appliances - The robotic vacuum cleaner market is experiencing rapid growth, with leading brands showcasing competitive pricing [2]. Black Goods - The long-term outlook for the black goods sector is improving, with short-term price stabilization in panels expected to support growth [2][12]. Export Market - The export growth rate is anticipated to slow down in the second half of the year due to a high base, but emerging markets are expected to provide strong support [12][14]. - In the first half of 2024, air conditioning exports reached 52.57 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, driven primarily by emerging markets [14]. Emerging Markets - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, are projected to continue growing, supported by rising incomes and consumption levels [17][19]. - Chinese brands are gaining market share in Southeast Asia, with significant penetration in air conditioning and refrigerator markets [19][22].