商业贸易8月宏观消费点评：“以旧换新”成效初显，补贴类目销售喜人

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the "old-for-new" policy has shown initial effectiveness, particularly in boosting sales of household appliances and 3C products, with a notable increase in retail sales growth from -2.4% in July to 3.4% in August [1][3]. - The overall macroeconomic environment remains weak, with August retail sales growth at 2.1%, below market expectations of 2.68% [1][7]. - The report emphasizes the need for stronger fiscal policies to stimulate consumer demand, especially in light of ongoing declines in real estate prices and consumer spending behavior [1][14]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In August 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,726 billion yuan, growing by 2.1% year-on-year, with goods retailing at 34,375 billion yuan, up by 1.9% [7][12]. - Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods totaled 34,783 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [7][12]. - Cumulative retail sales from January to August 2024 reached 312.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7]. Consumer Behavior Trends - Essential consumer goods showed stable growth, with categories like grain and oil, beverages, and daily necessities maintaining positive year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 2.7%, and 1.3%, respectively [14][15]. - In contrast, discretionary consumer goods continued to weaken, with categories such as clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry experiencing declines of -1.6%, -6.1%, and -12.0% year-on-year [14][15]. Travel and Tourism Insights - The report notes a significant increase in short-distance travel, with a 31.1% year-on-year growth in cross-regional travel during the Mid-Autumn Festival [16][22]. - Domestic tourism during the Mid-Autumn Festival reached 1.1 billion trips, recovering to 106.3% of 2019 levels, with total tourism revenue of 51.05 billion yuan, up 8.0% from 2019 [22][35]. Duty-Free Shopping Trends - Duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a decline in both shopping amounts and visitor numbers in August 2024, with a total shopping amount of 2.197 billion yuan, down 33.12% year-on-year [27]. - The average spending per person in duty-free shopping during the Mid-Autumn Festival was 5,943 yuan, reflecting a decrease compared to previous years [27].