【国君电新】需求提升利好不断,板块迎估值抬升——动力锂电行业点评

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the lithium battery industry, recommending an "overweight" rating for key players such as CATL, BYD, and Eve Energy [2] Core Viewpoints - Short-term policy stimulus in the automotive market and strong performance in the energy storage sector are expected to drive lithium battery demand beyond expectations [1] - Domestic demand remains resilient, with overseas demand projected to rise by 2025 [1] - The lithium battery industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with potential for improvement driven by the new energy vehicle peak season and stronger-than-expected energy storage demand [2] - Domestic policy catalysts, such as increased subsidies for new energy vehicles, are expected to boost demand [2] - By 2025, domestic demand is expected to remain strong, with growth in Europe and the US likely to accelerate [3] Domestic Market Analysis - In August, passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.907 million units, with new energy vehicle retail sales at 1.025 million units, representing a penetration rate of 53.7% [2] - From September 1 to 15, passenger vehicle retail sales were 828,000 units, up 18% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month [2] - The report predicts September passenger vehicle retail sales to reach 2.1 million units, with new energy vehicle sales expected to hit 1.1 million units, maintaining a penetration rate of around 52.4% [2] - From January to August 2024, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate reached 37.5%, up 4.9 percentage points from 2023 [3] Overseas Market Analysis - In Europe, despite weak demand in 2024, the EU's carbon emission reduction targets for 2025 are expected to drive the market share of electric vehicles to 20-22% [3] - In the US, new energy passenger vehicle sales in August reached 145,000 units, up 20.4% year-on-year and 14.7% month-on-month, with increased purchasing intent driven by interest rate cuts [3] Energy Storage Sector - Domestic energy storage demand is strong, with new energy storage project installations growing over 40% in the first half of 2024 compared to the end of 2023 [3] - Overseas energy storage demand is also rising, particularly in emerging markets like the Middle East, with the US interest rate cut cycle expected to further boost demand by 2025 [3] Key Companies and Valuations - BYD: Closing price of 250.00, 2024E EPS of 11.95, 2025E EPS of 15.32, with a "Buy" rating [4] - CATL: Closing price of 188.20, 2024E EPS of 11.51, 2025E EPS of 13.77, with a "Buy" rating [4] - Eve Energy: Closing price of 31.33, 2024E EPS of 2.26, 2025E EPS of 2.69, with a "Buy" rating [4] - Kedali: Closing price of 73.95, 2024E EPS of 5.14, 2025E EPS of 6.12, with a "Buy" rating [4] - Zhongwei Co: Closing price of 27.48, 2024E EPS of 2.18, 2025E EPS of 2.59, with a "Hold" rating [4] - DFD Nano: Closing price of 23.05, 2024E EPS of -2.60, 2025E EPS of 0.83, with a "Buy" rating [4] - Enjie Co: Closing price of 26.67, 2024E EPS of 0.67, 2025E EPS of 1.02, with a "Buy" rating [4]