消费行业快评报告：政策多管齐下，有望提振居民消费

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Viewpoints - A series of significant policies announced on September 24 aims to boost resident consumption, primarily targeting the stock and real estate markets. Key measures include a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, a 20 basis point cut in the OMO interest rate, and a 50 basis point decrease in existing mortgage rates. Additionally, the down payment ratio for second homes has been lowered to 15% [1][3] - The reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to alleviate the debt burden on residents, enhancing their consumption capacity. As of the end of Q2 2024, the outstanding mortgage scale in China was 37.8 trillion yuan, and the rate cut could reduce mortgage repayments by approximately 189 billion yuan annually. The current retail sales growth rate is only 3.40%, indicating weak domestic demand [1][3] - The policies are anticipated to positively impact the real estate market, which in turn could restore residents' asset values and stimulate demand in cyclical consumption sectors such as liquor and home furnishings. The implementation of stock repurchase and loan tools is expected to support high-dividend consumer sectors, aiding in valuation recovery [1][3] Summary by Sections - Policy Measures: The report outlines several key policies aimed at stimulating the economy, including interest rate cuts and support for stock buybacks, which are expected to enhance consumer spending and market confidence [1][3] - Impact on Consumption: The report emphasizes that the recovery of the real estate market is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and spending, particularly in sectors closely linked to real estate performance [1][3] - Investment Recommendations: The report suggests focusing on cyclical leaders in the liquor and home furnishings sectors, as well as high-dividend stocks in textiles, light industry, and food and beverage sectors [3]