策略专题：美联储开启降息周期，国新办发布会重磅政策频出，市场有望逐步回升

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Background - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.00% on September 19, 2024, marking the first rate cut in four years [4][6][7] - The Fed's decision aims to promote a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with the economic outlook remaining uncertain [8][11] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of an additional 50 basis points cut this year, with median rates projected at 4.4%, 3.4%, and 2.9% for 2024 to 2026 [6][11] Group 2: Impact on Domestic Economy - The Fed's rate cut is expected to increase market liquidity, which may lead to a gradual recovery in the domestic economy [2][3] - The depreciation pressure on the RMB has eased, with the exchange rate against the USD around 7.05, reflecting a 2.4% appreciation since August [12] - The rate cut may enhance external demand for Chinese exports, although the stronger RMB could reduce price competitiveness [12][13] Group 3: Sector-Specific Impacts - The technology sector may benefit from lower global funding costs, increasing investment willingness and improving funding efficiency [2][3][18] - The real estate sector could see a boost in demand as foreign capital flows back into the market, potentially driving up housing prices [3][18] - The commodities sector may experience price increases due to enhanced external demand as the global economy recovers [3][18] Group 4: Capital Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut is likely to lead to increased liquidity in the capital markets, with expectations of foreign capital returning to Chinese markets [14][18] - The report indicates that sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and construction performed well during previous Fed rate cut cycles, while non-bank financials and energy sectors lagged [14][18] - The report suggests that the financial sector will benefit from increased business volume due to rising loan demand as the economy recovers [18]