Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the lithium battery industry, based on its development prospects and valuation levels [2][4] Core Views - The lithium battery industry is under pressure in 2024, with both revenue and net profit declining for the first time since 2017 [3][12] - The global new energy vehicle market continues to grow, with China maintaining a significant competitive advantage in the industry chain [3][27] - Raw material prices in the lithium battery industry are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2024 due to oversupply and slowing demand growth [4][41] Market Performance - The lithium battery index underperformed the CSI 300 index in 2024, with a decline of 32.08% as of September 23, 2024 [3][9] - Among individual stocks, BYD, CATL, and Shangtai Technology were among the top performers, while Mengguli and DFD Nano were among the worst performers [9] Industry Performance Overview - In H1 2024, the lithium battery sector's revenue was 993.9 billion yuan, down 6.08% YoY, marking the first negative growth since 2017 [3][12] - Net profit for the sector in H1 2024 was 51.99 billion yuan, down 33.83% YoY, with only 39.39% of companies reporting positive growth [12][14] - Profitability metrics such as gross margin and net margin have been under pressure since 2022, reflecting intensified industry competition [18] Sub-Sector Performance - Performance varies significantly across sub-sectors, with power batteries and anode materials showing relatively better revenue growth in H1 2024 [15] - The lithium mining sub-sector saw the largest decline in net profit growth, with a median decline of 42.36% in H1 2024 [17] New Energy Vehicle Sales - Global new energy vehicle sales reached 8.5554 million units in the first seven months of 2024, a 23.57% YoY increase, accounting for 18% of the total market [3][27] - China's new energy vehicle sales grew by 30.96% YoY in the first eight months of 2024, reaching 7.034 million units, with exports increasing by 12.97% [3][27] Raw Material Prices - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell by 24.75% from the beginning of 2024 to September 20, 2024, reaching 74,500 yuan/ton [4][44] - Lithium hydroxide prices also declined by 23.20% during the same period, reflecting ongoing pressure in the lithium battery supply chain [44] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on three main investment themes: downstream battery manufacturers benefiting from lower raw material prices, companies with cost advantages, and thematic opportunities related to new energy vehicle sales [52] - Key companies to watch include CATL, Eve Energy, and Shangtai Technology, based on their ROE, R&D investment, and market position [52][54]
锂电池行业2024年中报总结及展望：业绩中报承压，板块可关注
中原证券·2024-09-25 09:07