大类资产跟踪周报：A股探底迎反弹，美联储降息50bp

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound after hitting a bottom, with caution advised ahead of the National Day holiday. The market's recent performance is influenced by the Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut and prior adjustments in the market [5][7] - The real estate and non-ferrous metal sectors, including precious metals, have led the gains, while the consumer sector has shown weaker performance due to average consumption data during the Mid-Autumn Festival [5][7] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut marks the first reduction in four and a half years, with the federal funds rate now at 4.75%-5.0%. This decision exceeded market expectations and has led to a rally in major U.S. stock indices [5][6] Weekly Asset Tracking - The performance of major asset classes last week (09.16-09.20) ranked as follows: Hong Kong stocks > commodities > U.S. stocks > A-shares > domestic bonds. The Hang Seng Index led with a 5.12% increase, followed by ICE WTI crude oil and the Nikkei 225, which rose by 4.84% and 3.12%, respectively [7][8] - The A-share market's short-term outlook remains uncertain due to the upcoming holiday and tight liquidity at the end of the quarter, suggesting a cautious approach [7][10] Stock Market Performance - Most A-share indices rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and SSE 50 showing weekly increases of 1.21%, 1.32%, and 1.24%, respectively. The STAR 50 index was the only one to decline, falling by 1.02% [10][11] - The real estate and computer sectors were the top performers, with gains of 5.67% and 3.88%, while the pharmaceutical and power equipment sectors lagged behind [12][10] Bond Market Analysis - The LPR remained unchanged, but short-term interest rates have risen significantly due to tight liquidity conditions. The 30-year government bond yield decreased by 3 basis points, indicating a favorable long-term outlook despite short-term pressures [6][14] - The central bank's net liquidity injection of 9,179 billion yuan reflects efforts to support the market as the quarter ends [14][6] Commodity Market Insights - The Federal Reserve's rate cut has stimulated increases in both crude oil and gold prices. Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile due to concerns over demand and supply imbalances, while gold is projected to maintain an upward trend despite potential technical corrections [16][17] - Recent performance in commodities showed NYMEX natural gas, ICE Brent crude, and NYMEX WTI crude leading with gains of 6.6%, 4.1%, and 3.8%, respectively [16][18] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The AH share premium has slightly decreased to 11.38%, remaining above the historical median of 7.02%. The risk premium for the entire A-share market is at 4.64%, indicating a favorable investment environment compared to historical averages [19][19]