GATD(SH:688239) Huafu Securities·2024-09-25 09:38Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 35.28 CNY based on a projected P/E ratio of 23x for 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a core supplier of aviation ring forgings, benefiting from strong demand in both domestic and international markets, particularly in military and civilian sectors [1][18]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 2.106 billion CNY, 2.624 billion CNY, and 3.127 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 227 million CNY, 326 million CNY, and 391 million CNY [2][1]. - The company has a robust order backlog of 4.9 billion CNY, with existing and under-construction production capacities expected to support significant revenue growth [1][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company specializes in aviation ring forgings and has established itself as a key player in the military and civilian markets, with a history of rapid growth and technological advancements since its founding in 2006 [7][18]. 2. Business Segments - Military Products: The company is deeply integrated with major military engine manufacturers, benefiting from the production ramp-up of new generation engines [1][18]. - Civilian Products: The civilian sector has shown rapid growth, particularly in aviation and gas turbine segments, with a CAGR of 77% in revenue from 2021 to 2023 [1][18]. 3. Production Capacity - The company operates three production bases, with significant capacity to meet order demands. The Guizhou headquarters and the new Deyang plant are expected to generate substantial annual output once fully operational [1][21]. 4. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a CAGR of 45% from 2018 to 2023. Net profit has also increased significantly, reflecting effective cost control and operational efficiency [21][24]. 5. Incentive Programs - The company has implemented two phases of equity incentive plans to align the interests of key personnel with company performance, showcasing management's confidence in future growth [15][14]. 6. Market Outlook - The military budget in China is projected to continue growing, which will likely drive demand for military aviation components. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [29][30].