策略专题报告：美联储降息后，四季度的季节效应如何演绎？

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant seasonal effect of the National Day holiday on the A-share market, indicating a tendency for the market to weaken before the holiday and strengthen afterward, with a notable "V" shaped recovery in the last trading day before the holiday [6][9][13] - The analysis of the market performance from 2010 to 2023 shows that the average return in October for Wind All A is 2%, with a win rate of 57%, suggesting a strong "Red October" trend [22][23] - The report identifies that the consumer sector performs well before the holiday, while the financial sector is expected to outperform in the days following the holiday, particularly in the T+10 period [15][16] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on A-share preferences, noting that value stocks tend to outperform during recessionary rate cuts, while growth stocks perform better during preventive cuts [3][22] - It is observed that after the Fed's rate cuts, there is a trend shift from large-cap to small-cap stocks, and from financials to technology and manufacturing sectors [3][22] - The report suggests that in the context of the current economic environment, there are opportunities in sectors such as technology manufacturing and innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in the fourth quarter [3][22] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of valuation switching, particularly in the financial and real estate sectors, which have shown strong performance in the fourth quarter historically [30][34] - It notes that the conditions for valuation switching are well established in sectors like financials, construction materials, and home appliances, which are expected to outperform [30][34] - The report also highlights that the market's focus tends to shift towards next year's earnings forecasts after the release of quarterly reports, influencing stock pricing and valuation adjustments [34][36]