2024年8月快递行业数据点评：行业累计件量突破千亿件，ASP降幅收窄

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected growth of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index in the next six months [59]. Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry is expected to see total demand exceed expectations, with cumulative parcel volume surpassing 100 billion pieces in August 2024. The average selling price (ASP) decline is narrowing, and there are high expectations for price increases in the industry [3][12]. - Key companies recommended for investment include ZTO Express, Yunda Express, and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from strategic shifts towards quality parcels and improved profitability [3][12]. Summary by Sections Business Flow - In August 2024, the total retail sales in China reached 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. The online retail sales of physical goods were 1.0 trillion yuan, up 0.9% year-on-year, with an online shopping penetration rate of 26.0%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [12][15]. Volume - The express delivery volume for the first eight months of 2024 reached 108.8 billion pieces, with August alone seeing 14.38 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The growth rate remains moderate, with intercity deliveries up 30.5% year-on-year [15][19]. - In August 2024, the express delivery volumes by region were 103.8 billion in the East, 26.6 billion in the Central, and 13.5 billion in the West, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.7%, 40.0%, and 54.6% respectively [22][27]. Price - The average price of express delivery services in August 2024 was 7.93 yuan, a decrease of 0.96 yuan (-10.8%) year-on-year. Prices in the East, Central, and West regions were 8.23, 6.43, and 8.64 yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 9.0%, 12.1%, and 21.1% [29][31]. Competitive Landscape - In August 2024, major players like SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO achieved parcel volumes of 10.4, 19.7, 19.4, and 22.6 billion pieces respectively, with market shares of 7.3%, 13.7%, 13.5%, and 15.7% [41][43]. - The single ticket revenue for these companies was 15.67, 1.99, 2.00, and 2.14 yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 5.3%, 8.3%, 4.8%, and 7.1% [43].