MCC(601618) 国信证券·2024-09-25 10:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant short-term operational pressure, but there is potential for improvement in the second half of the year due to increased issuance of special bonds and accelerated debt resolution by local governments [3][10] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a decline in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.6% in revenue and 42.5% in net profit [3][5] - New contract amounts have slightly decreased, but overseas growth has been impressive, with overseas new contracts increasing by 85.1% year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022: 592,669 million - 2023: 633,870 million - 2024E: 650,633 million (growth of 2.6% from 2023) - 2025E: 699,224 million (growth of 7.5% from 2024E) - 2026E: 768,760 million (growth of 9.9% from 2025E) [2][11] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022: 10,272 million - 2023: 8,670 million (decrease of 15.6% from 2022) - 2024E: 8,830 million (increase of 1.8% from 2023) - 2025E: 9,574 million (increase of 8.4% from 2024E) - 2026E: 10,144 million (increase of 6.0% from 2025E) [2][11] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022: 0.50 - 2023: 0.42 - 2024E: 0.43 - 2025E: 0.46 - 2026E: 0.49 [2][11] - Profitability Ratios: - EBIT Margin: 4.0% for 2024E - Return on Equity (ROE): 5.8% for 2024E [2][11] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 6.74 for 2024E - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 0.39 for 2024E - EV/EBITDA: 19.2 for 2024E [2][11] Operational Insights - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit in the second quarter of 2024, with revenue down 21.6% year-on-year and net profit down 61.8% [3][5] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 9.05%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared to the same period last year [8][9] - The company faced cash flow pressures, with a net cash outflow of 284 million in the first half of 2024, reflecting ongoing challenges in cash collection and payment cycles [9][10]