以岭药业：络病理论指引中药创新方向，连花系列重启增长新动力

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Yiling Pharmaceutical [2][7]. Core Views - Yiling Pharmaceutical, guided by the theory of collateral diseases, focuses on innovative traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) development, with a strong market position in cardiovascular and respiratory disease treatments [4][5]. - The company has a significant market share in the oral cardiovascular drug sector, exceeding 15%, and its flagship products have shown robust sales performance [4][5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in sales for the Lianhua series of products, particularly Lianhua Qingwen, as social inventory levels normalize [5][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yiling Pharmaceutical originated from Huangdi Pharmaceutical Factory and was established as a limited company in 1996, later going public in 2011 [17][18]. - The company focuses on the research, development, and production of patented TCM, with 14 patented new drugs, primarily in cardiovascular and respiratory disease areas [21][24]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Yiling achieved revenues of 10.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.7%, with a net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, down 42.8% [24]. - For the first half of 2024, revenues are projected at 4.60 billion yuan, reflecting a 32.2% decrease, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, down 67% [6][24]. Product Analysis - The company has developed three main innovative TCM products for cardiovascular diseases: Tongxinluo Capsule, Cansongyangxin Capsule, and Qilichangxin Capsule, which address common ischemic cardiovascular conditions [4][40]. - The Lianhua series, particularly Lianhua Qingwen, has a market share close to 20% in the respiratory drug market, significantly above pre-pandemic levels [5][9]. Market Outlook - The report forecasts Yiling's revenues for 2024 to be 9.30 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -9.9%, followed by growth rates of 13.8% and 13.0% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [7][8]. - The estimated target market capitalization for Yiling is 30 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 19% from its current valuation [7].