HUAXI Securities·2024-09-25 13:03Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Great Wall Motors to "Buy" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The trend of vehicle replacement is evident, with high-priced models expected to exceed 10 million units, indicating a broader demand for high-priced vehicles. The proportion of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan is continuously increasing, supported by rising disposable income and shorter replacement cycles due to the advent of smart electric vehicles [2][19]. - The Wei brand is positioned as a key player in the family large space segment, with the new model "Blue Mountain" expected to significantly boost sales after addressing previous shortcomings in intelligence and distribution channels [2][39]. - The Tank brand is set to dominate the professional off-road segment, leveraging technology to create a competitive edge. The off-road SUV market is projected to capture 10% of the sales of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan, with the Tank brand benefiting from this growth [2][39]. - Focusing on high-priced vehicles is expected to yield significant results, as there is ample opportunity in the mass market. The strategy to prioritize high-priced segments will help reduce internal competition while enhancing brand image [2][39]. Summary by Sections Vehicle Replacement Trends - The replacement ratio has exceeded 50%, driving an increase in average transaction prices in the automotive market. The average price of passenger vehicles has risen from 168,900 yuan in 2016 to 227,700 yuan in early 2024, reflecting a core trend of consumption upgrading [7][9]. - The theoretical demand for vehicle replacement from 2019 to 2023 is estimated at 97.72 million units, with actual replacement sales at 42.3 million units, indicating a backlog of over 55.42 million units [13][19]. Wei Brand and Blue Mountain Model - The old Blue Mountain model maintained a stable monthly sales volume of around 2,000 units, while the new model received 8,571 pre-orders within 24 hours of its launch [28][39]. - The new Blue Mountain features significant upgrades in comfort and technology, including a self-developed cockpit platform and high-end amenities [32][33]. Tank Brand and Off-Road Segment - The Tank brand is positioned as the leading brand in the high-value off-road market, with a strong focus on technology to enhance its competitive advantage [2][39]. Market Potential and Strategy - The report emphasizes the vast potential in the mass market, with a strategic focus on high-priced vehicles expected to yield better profitability and reduced competition among domestic brands [2][39].