强政策叠加低估值，股指市场或将迎来中长期底部

Policy Measures - The central bank will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market[1] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate will be reduced by 0.2 percentage points from 1.7% to 1.5%, aiming to guide loan market rates downwards[1] - The minimum down payment ratio for second homes will be lowered from 25% to 15%, aligning first and second home loan requirements[1] - New structural monetary policy tools will be established to support capital markets, including liquidity swaps for securities, funds, and insurance companies[1] Economic Context - Manufacturing PMI has been below the growth line for four consecutive months, indicating a contraction in the economy[2] - Fixed asset investment growth has been declining, with real estate investment showing negative growth for nearly three years due to previous regulatory measures[3] - Consumer spending growth has been continuously declining, reflecting weakened consumer confidence amid economic downturns[4] Market Implications - The current 10-year government bond yield is around 2%, and the reserve requirement ratio is at historical lows, indicating a supportive monetary environment[10] - The stock market has seen a significant drop in valuations, with the current price-to-earnings ratio for the CSI 300 index at 10-11 times, marking a 10-year low[18] - Following the announcement of the new policies, major stock indices experienced a surge of approximately 5%, indicating strong market reactions to the policy measures[18]