Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy. Key points of concern are the enterprise resumption progress and the price linkage effect between silicon coal and polysilicon [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to decline weakly. Due to the high speculative cost in the futures market, it is advised to participate with caution. Risk points include policy adjustments and enterprise device changes [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In February 2026, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures showed a weak downward price trend. The industrial silicon futures price dropped by 5.14% month - on - month, and the polysilicon futures price dropped by 1.37% month - on - month [8][9] - In January, the basis of industrial silicon expanded first and then slightly declined, with a month - end spread of 755 yuan/ton. In February, the basis of polysilicon changed little, and non - enterprise customers are not recommended to engage in spot - futures arbitrage at present [13][18] 2. Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Spot**: In February, the price of oxygen - passed 553 metallic silicon decreased. The spot price was mainly lowered in the days before the Spring Festival, and the average price in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [19] - **Supply**: In February, the overall production of industrial silicon decreased, with an average daily production decrease of about 19% compared to January. As of February 25, the number of operating furnaces in China was 177, with an overall furnace - opening rate of 22.24%. It is expected that the production in March will increase to over 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% [26][36] - **Cost and Profit**: In February, the costs in Xinjiang and Sichuan remained stable, while the cost in Yunnan decreased. The average monthly cost of domestic industrial silicon was about 9067.5 yuan/ton, with an average profit of - 107 yuan/ton. Most production enterprises were in a loss state, and the cost side provided certain support [37] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + sample enterprise inventory in main production areas + downstream enterprise inventory) changed little recently, remained stable, and was still at a relatively high level [39] 3. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Spot Price**: In February, the polysilicon market was in a weak pattern. At the end of the month, the average market price of N - type polysilicon material price index was 51.4 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 2.4%; the N - type dense material price index was 51 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 1% [43] - **Supply**: In February, the domestic polysilicon production decreased to about 77,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6%. In March, the supply is expected to increase to 85,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%, but lower than the same period in previous years [46][47] - **Cost and Profit**: In February, the polysilicon price decreased and the profit decreased, but the industry was still profitable. The profit of polysilicon products was higher than that of upstream and downstream products in the overall photovoltaic industry chain [49] - **Demand**: - **Silicon Wafer**: In February, the silicon wafer price decreased, and the industry was in a loss state. The production decreased, and the production schedule in March increased. The market was in a weak state, and the price was under pressure [52][55] - **Battery Cell**: The production cost of battery cells was supported by the rising silver price. After the festival, there were enterprise resumption plans, and most of the production capacity would be released in March [57] - **Component**: The domestic component market continued to be in a downturn. After the Spring Festival, the production increased significantly, but there was also price competition. The demand in the overseas market showed certain resilience [61] - **Inventory**: As of the end of February, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers was 344,000 tons, showing a continuous inventory accumulation state since September 2025. The polysilicon futures warehouse receipts rebounded rapidly, reaching 28,500 tons at the end of February [64] 4. Silicon Industry Demand - **Organic Silicon**: In February, the organic silicon market was stable. After the festival, the market inquiry atmosphere was weak. It is expected that the production schedule in March will be about 210,000 tons [65][69] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In February, the aluminum alloy price decreased at the beginning of the month and then rebounded rapidly. After the Spring Festival, the market circulation is expected to gradually increase and return to normal [73] 5. Industrial Silicon Summary and Future Forecast - **Supply - Demand Structure**: In March, the production of industrial silicon is expected to increase to over 340,000 tons, and the consumption is expected to increase [75] - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon market is still in a state of loose supply. In March, it is expected that both supply and demand will increase, and the inventory will be at a high level. The silicon price may show a wide - range oscillatory trend [78] 6. Polysilicon Summary and Future Forecast - **Supply - Demand Structure**: In March, the polysilicon supply is expected to increase to 85,000 tons, and the overall demand is expected to increase [79] - **Futures Market**: The polysilicon price is expected to decline weakly. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange still maintains restrictive control measures on polysilicon futures, with low trading activity and high speculative costs. Speculators should participate with caution [82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures in February first declined and then rose, with violent price fluctuations. The overall short - term supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, but in the medium and long term, the supply from upstream mines is limited and cannot meet downstream demand, and the supply - demand tension still exists. The price is expected to be mainly in a range - bound pattern. The risk points include the slowdown of demand growth, non - mine supply, and the ramping up of overseas salt lake production [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 February Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In February 2026, the price of lithium carbonate futures first declined and then rose. Affected by factors such as strong demand, continuous inventory reduction, and short - term tightening of African lithium ore supply, the price bottomed out and then strongly rebounded. Near the end of the month, due to the rapid short - term price increase, the price slightly weakened and fluctuated after hitting the previous resistance level. The price fluctuated between 120,000 and 190,000 yuan during the month. The monthly cumulative trading volume was 7.08 million lots, a 49% decrease from the previous month, and the open interest was 710,000 lots, a decrease of 10,000 lots from the previous month. The main contract LC2605 had a monthly increase of 18.8% and an amplitude of 43% [7][8][9] 3.1.2 January Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In February, the spot price of lithium carbonate bottomed out and then rose. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 172,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 168,500 yuan/ton, a 7% increase from the previous month. The price of lithium hydroxide also increased by 7%. The basis fluctuated violently between - 12,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan, and at the end of February, the basis was at - 660 yuan/ton, with the spot and futures prices almost the same [13][14][18] 3.1.3 Price Quotes of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In February, the prices of the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally increased to a certain extent. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose by 13% to 2,385 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 16% due to market capacity release, dragging down the price of electrolyte by 13%. The monthly increase of lithium iron phosphate was 6%, and that of ternary materials was 3% [21] 3.2 Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 Lithium Ore Price Trend and Lithium Carbonate Production Profit - In January, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose from 2,175 US dollars/ton to 2,385 US dollars/ton, a 10% increase. The price of lithium mica concentrate rose from 4,965 yuan/ton to 5,600 yuan/ton, a 13% increase. The production profit of lithium carbonate first decreased and then recovered. The production profit of purchasing spodumene was about 12,000 yuan at the end of the month, and that of purchasing mica was about 5,200 yuan [25][28] 3.2.2 Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In February, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the lithium ore inventory decreased significantly. The inventory of traders decreased significantly, and the inventory of lithium salt plants was at a low level. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to the shutdown in Jiangxi. The current upstream resource supply mainly comes from salt lakes and spodumene. In 2026, it is expected that the domestic mica ore supply will decrease by at least 60,000 tons. The复产 of the Ngungaju factory will increase the LCE capacity by 11,000 tons this year. The CGP3 capacity of Greenbushes is 520,000 tons of concentrate, equivalent to 65,000 tons of LCE production, and it is expected to produce 22,000 tons this year. The new production of Mt Marion and Wodgina lithium mines is 17,000 tons of LCE. If the export ban in Zimbabwe is implemented in the short term, it will affect the annual supply of 10,000 - 20,000 tons of LCE. If the ban persists, the annual supply of lithium carbonate in Zimbabwe will be reduced by at least 80,000 tons [29][34][35] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Lithium Carbonate Production - In February, the production of lithium carbonate was 82,000 tons, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 30% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,000 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 22,000 tons. The main production source was spodumene. The overall capacity utilization rate in February was 47%, and it is expected to recover to 59% in March. It is estimated that the supply of lithium carbonate in March will increase by 28%, setting a new production high [37][44][45] 3.3.2 Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In December 2025, the import of lithium carbonate was 24,000 tons, and the export was 912 tons, with a net import of 23,100 tons. Chile and Argentina are the main import sources. In January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,900 tons, a 24.83% increase from the previous month and a 10.59% decrease year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume of lithium carbonate in China from January to February will increase significantly, and the import volume in March is also expected to remain at a high level [47][50] 3.3.3 Lithium Hydroxide Production and Apparent Demand - In February, the production of lithium hydroxide was 23,000 tons, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 14% increase year - on - year. In December, the import of lithium hydroxide was 5,093 tons, and the export was 6,318 tons, with a net export of 1,225 tons. Due to the decrease in production in February, the net export will also decline, and the apparent demand in February is expected to be 21,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [51][53] 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate 3.4.1 New Energy Vehicle Sales - In January 2026, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 945,000, a 0.1% increase year - on - year, accounting for 40.3% of the total vehicle sales. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles decreased from 52.3% in December last year to 40%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will increase in March [54][60] 3.4.2 Lithium Battery and Cell Production - In February, the production of lithium batteries by sample enterprises was 169 GWh, including 134 GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries and 26 GWh of ternary batteries. The production of ternary batteries was stable, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries decreased by 13% from the previous month and increased by 61% year - on - year. The monthly production of power cells was 102 GWh, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 24% increase year - on - year. The monthly production of energy - storage cells was 56 GWh, an 11% decrease from the previous month and an 87% increase year - on - year. The cell inventory - to - sales ratio continued to decline, and the inventory was at a low level [63][64] 3.4.3 Cathode Material and Electrolyte Production - In February, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 348,000 tons, a 12% decrease from the previous month and a 53% increase year - on - year. The production of ternary materials was 71,000 tons, a 12% decrease from the previous month and a 48% increase year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream demand decreased by 10 - 15% month - on - month. It is expected that the production of cathode materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, and batteries will increase significantly in March [67][74] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - As of the end of February, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 1 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory days were 28.2 days. The inventory of smelters was 18,000 tons, at a historical low. The overall market was still in a low - inventory state. It is expected that the inventory depletion intensity will weaken in March, and there may even be enterprise restocking behavior. The exchange inventory at the end of February was 38,200 tons [75][79][80] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate Summary and Future Forecast - In the short term, the demand for lithium carbonate is still strong, and the social inventory is in a low - inventory depletion state. However, affected by the rapid recovery and growth of supply in March, the supply - demand tension will be alleviated to some extent, and there will be a certain supply surplus in March. In the medium and long term, the supply from upstream mines is limited and cannot meet downstream demand, and the supply - demand tension still exists. The price is expected to be mainly in a range - bound pattern. If the price of lithium carbonate further declines in March, it may boost downstream procurement and restocking demand [84][86]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on commodities is centered around rising crude oil prices, strengthening of safe-haven assets, and structural differentiation of chemical products. The strength depends on the duration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's core production capacity [7]. - If the conflict persists and global geopolitical conflicts escalate, the "hard asset" attribute of the commodity market will remain the focus of global funds, especially energy and precious metals may see a continuous upward trend. If the conflict ends quickly, the short-term increase of assets such as crude oil and gold may be limited [7]. - Overall, the conflict has an asymmetric impact on commodities, driving up energy, gold, oil transportation, and some chemical products in the short term. In the medium term, it depends on the duration of the conflict, the scope of the conflict in Middle Eastern countries, and the degree of blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Hot Events - On February 26, the US-Iran Geneva negotiations broke down, and Trump said Iran rejected US demands [2][6]. - On the evening of February 27, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese Embassy in Iran reminded Chinese citizens not to travel to Iran and advised those in Iran to strengthen security precautions and evacuate as soon as possible [2][6]. - At 2:20 pm on February 28, an explosion was heard in Tehran. The Israeli army launched the "Lion's Roar Operation," and the US military launched the "Epic Rage Operation" simultaneously. About 30 - 500 targets in Tehran were bombed. Israel's defense minister declared a national emergency and closed the airspace. Iran immediately closed its airspace and entered the highest state of combat readiness. At 3:30 pm, Trump announced that the US military would intervene on a large scale, aiming to destroy Iran's missile industry, nuclear capabilities, and eliminate the Iranian navy. Iran launched the "True Promise 4" counterattack, firing missiles and drones at Israel and US military bases in the Middle East. Iran claimed that about 200 US troops were killed or injured, but the US denied it [2][6]. - On March 1, the US and Israel continued to conduct air strikes on Iran, and Iran continued to counterattack US and Israeli targets in the Middle East. The two sides entered a high-intensity confrontation with no sign of a ceasefire. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on the evening of the 28th that it would ban any ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing the strait [2][6]. - Iran's Fars News Agency reported that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated on the morning of February 28. Iran announced a 40-day national mourning period starting from March 1 [3][6]. Impact on the Futures Market - **Crude Oil**: Iran is the third-largest oil-producing country in OPEC, with a daily export of about 1.5 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% - 30% of the world's seaborne crude oil, which is a core variable in pricing. The shipping index will also remain strong when oil prices rise. In a limited strike scenario, Brent crude oil may briefly surge to $80 per barrel and then fall back. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked or the conflict escalates, oil prices may break through $100 and rise trendily. Currently, the market is driven by geopolitical factors rather than supply and demand, and the upside risk is significantly greater than the downside. If the conflict ends quickly, oil prices may fall back after a short-term surge [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold, as an important asset, resonates with geopolitical risks and inflation expectations driven by rising oil prices. Coupled with central banks' continuous gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the gold price fluctuates strongly at a historical high, with volatility increasing by 2 - 3 times. If the conflict continues to ferment, it is likely to rise in the short term. Silver will continue to follow the rise of the gold price and benefit from its industrial properties, usually with higher elasticity than gold. If the conflict is short-lived, there may be a risk of a fall after a short-term surge [9]. - **Chemical Products**: For upstream products such as methanol, LPG, and ethylene glycol with a high proportion of Iranian exports, the expectation of supply interruption will push up prices, and domestic alternative production capacity will benefit. Iran's methanol production accounts for nearly 10% of the world's total, with an annual output of over 10 million tons, of which 80% is for export. Iran is also a major supplier of urea in the world, with an annual export volume of 10 million tons, accounting for 14% of the world's total. It is also the second-largest ethylene producer in the Middle East, with an annual production capacity of 7.88 million tons, accounting for 23% of the Middle East. Iran's ethylene glycol production capacity accounts for 3 - 3.5% of the world's total, about 1.8 million tons, mainly exported to the Asian market. If the supply is interrupted, the cost of methanol, urea, etc. will rise significantly due to the increase in the prices of natural gas and sulfur. Downstream synthetic fibers such as PTA and plastics are squeezed by rising crude oil prices and weakening demand, but they will also rise due to cost - push [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, in a situation of both supply and demand reduction, there is an expectation of inventory reduction, and the downside price space is limited. In the short - term, it may show a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprise production cuts [3][73]. - For polysilicon, the fundamental contradictions are prominent, and the exchange has tightened speculation. It is advisable to observe more and act less. Enterprises can carry out hedging operations according to their production and operation conditions [4][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (1) Futures Market Review of Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - In January 2026, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The industrial silicon price was relatively stable, with the main SI2605 contract closing at 8850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 0.11%. The polysilicon futures price dropped significantly, with the PS2605 contract closing at 47140 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 18.61% [9][11]. (2) Basis Performance - For industrial silicon, the basis changed little in January, and there was no arbitrage opportunity between futures and spot. For polysilicon, the basis fluctuated greatly, reaching a high of 6615 yuan/ton in the middle of the month and closing at 2500 yuan/ton at the end of the month [13][16]. II. Analysis of the Industrial Silicon Market (1) Spot Market - The prices of industrial silicon in major production and sales areas changed little. The price of 553 in the north was mainly between 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 was stable with a slightly warmer trading atmosphere at the end of the month. There was no arbitrage opportunity between futures and spot [18][21]. (2) Supply - In January, the overall furnace - opening rate of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the output decreased by about 5% month - on - month, expected to further shrink in February and may fall below 300,000 tons [24][28]. (3) Cost and Profit - The average cost of domestic industrial silicon was about 9050 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 11 yuan/ton, providing certain cost support [30]. (4) Inventory - The total sample inventory of industrial silicon changed little recently, remaining at a relatively high level. Social inventory was stable, production enterprise inventory increased, and downstream enterprise inventory decreased slightly [32]. III. Analysis of the Polysilicon Market (1) Spot Market Price Performance - In January, the polysilicon price first rose and then fell. The N - type material price index decreased by 5% month - on - month, and the N - type dense material price index decreased by 1.9% month - on - month. The downstream market showed different trends, with silicon wafers under pressure and battery cells rising in price [34][35]. (2) Supply - In January 2026, the domestic polysilicon output decreased to about 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 13%. It is expected to further decline to 82,000 - 85,000 tons in February [39]. (3) Cost and Profit - The polysilicon industry profit reached a peak in January and then declined to around 6700 yuan/ton at the end of the month, still higher than that of upstream and downstream products in the photovoltaic industry [40][41]. (4) Demand - **Silicon wafer market**: The price of silicon wafers first rose and then fell in January, with increased output and expected stable or slightly decreased production in February [44][45]. - **Battery cell market**: The price of battery cells rose in January, but the profit was average, and the demand was suppressed in the short - term. The production is expected to decline in February [49][53]. - **Component market**: The component price rose, but high - price transactions were limited, and the profit decreased. The output decreased in January and is expected to further decline in February [54][57]. (5) Inventory - As of the end of January, the polysilicon production enterprise inventory was 333,000 tons, showing a continuous inventory accumulation state since September. The futures warehouse receipts increased rapidly, reaching 25,000 tons at the end of January [58][59]. IV. Silicon Industry Demand: Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy (1) Organic Silicon Market - In January, the price of the organic silicon market increased. The output in January was 203,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. It is expected to be about 170,000 tons in February [61][64]. (2) Aluminum Alloy Market - In January, the aluminum alloy price rose by 8.5%. The demand was weak, and the supply was expected to shrink. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline slightly in February [69]. V. Industrial Silicon Summary and Future Forecast - **Supply**: The output decreased by about 5% in January and is expected to further decline in February [71]. - **Demand**: The demand for industrial silicon declined in January and is expected to continue to decline in February [71]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost provides certain support for the price [71]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is at a relatively high level [71]. - **Futures Market**: It is expected that the inventory will be reduced in February, and the price decline is limited. In the short - term, it may show a volatile trend [72][73]. VI. Polysilicon Summary and Future Forecast - **Supply**: The output decreased in January and is expected to further decline in February [74]. - **Demand**: The demand is weak, and the silicon wafer production is expected to be stable or slightly decrease in February [74]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit decreased in January but is still higher than that of upstream and downstream products. Some enterprises started to raise or maintain prices at the beginning of February [75]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is at a high level, which restricts the price increase [76][77]. - **Futures Market**: The market is in a critical stage of supply - demand reconstruction, facing short - term fluctuations and adjustments. It is advisable to observe more and act less [78].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a short - term weak and medium - term strong pattern. The market's enthusiasm has cooled under macro and regulatory policies. The supply - demand tension has marginally eased, but there is still a gap. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in February. If the inventory accumulation is less than expected and the price drops at a low level, there is a high possibility of a price surge in March [2][3] - The current supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate has been somewhat alleviated, but in the medium - to - long term, the upstream ore supply is limited and cannot meet the downstream demand, so the supply - demand tension still exists [92] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Market Review (1) January Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In January 2026, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose sharply and then fluctuated violently at high levels. Influenced by supply contraction, expected demand front - loading, and exchange policy adjustments, the price was strongly pulled up and oscillated. Near the end of the month, affected by capital outflows and the overall weakening of macro commodities, the price dropped significantly [7] - The monthly cumulative trading volume was 13.85 million lots, and the open interest was 720,000 lots. The main contract LC2605 rose 21.9% in January, with an amplitude of 54.8%, setting the largest fluctuation range since the listing of lithium carbonate futures [10][12] (2) January Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In January, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 160,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 157,000 yuan/ton. The price increased by 35% compared with the previous month, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate widened from 3,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3,500 yuan/ton [13] - The price of lithium hydroxide increased by 48% compared with the previous month, and the price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide narrowed from 8,200 yuan to 5,000 yuan [16] - The basis of the main contract fluctuated violently. By the end of January, the basis turned positive, rising to 3,200 yuan/ton. The price linkage between the futures and spot markets was strong, and the price difference fluctuated greatly between - 10,000 yuan and 12,000 yuan [19] (3) Price Trends of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In January, the prices of the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally rose significantly. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate was 2,175 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 40%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 14% due to market capacity release, dragging down the electrolyte price by 7%. The monthly growth rate of lithium iron phosphate was 24%, and that of ternary materials was 18% [21] II. Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Ore Price Trends and Lithium Carbonate Production Profits - In January, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose from 1,510 US dollars/ton in the previous month to 2,175 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of over 40%. The price of lithium mica (Li2O) concentrate rose from 3,355 yuan/ton to 4,965 yuan/ton, with a monthly growth rate of 48% [24] - The production profit of purchasing spodumene externally was profitable at the end of the month, around 6,700 yuan. The profit of purchasing mica externally fluctuated following the profit of the spodumene end, with the end - month profit around 3,600 yuan [25] (2) Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In January, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the lithium ore inventory increased significantly. However, from the inventory link, the inventory of traders increased significantly, while the inventory of lithium salt plants was at a low level. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to the shutdown in Jiangxi [29] - It is expected that the domestic mica ore supply will decrease by at least 60,000 tons. Abroad, the Ngungaju plant's resumption of production will add 11,000 tons of LCE production capacity this year, the CGP3 project of Greenbushes is expected to produce 22,000 tons this year, and the output of Wodgina lithium mine will increase by 5,000 tons [37][38] III. Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis (1) Lithium Carbonate Production - In January, the lithium carbonate production was 98,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 57%. The production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,400 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 26,500 tons [39] - The main supply of production still came from the spodumene end. The estimated production capacity utilization rate in January was 57%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month, maintaining at the historical average level [43][45] (2) Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In December 2025, the import of lithium carbonate was 24,000 tons, and the export was 912 tons, with a net import of 2,310 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons. Chile and Argentina were still the main import sources, accounting for over 90% of the total import volume. The average import price in December was 10,187 US dollars/ton, a 272 - dollar increase from November [49][53] (3) Lithium Hydroxide Production and Apparent Demand - In January, the lithium hydroxide production was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. In December, the net export of lithium hydroxide was 1,225 tons. If estimated based on December's net export, the apparent demand in January was 26,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [54] IV. Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) New Energy Vehicle Sales - In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.71 million, a 7% increase compared with the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 16.44 million, a 28% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 2.58 million, a 106% year - on - year increase, accounting for 16% of the total sales volume [57][58] - Pure electric vehicles accounted for 65%, and hybrid vehicles accounted for 35%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales continued to rise, currently reaching 52.3%, exceeding that of traditional vehicles [60] (2) Lithium Battery and Cell Production - In January, the lithium battery production of sample enterprises was 194 GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate battery production was 154 GWh, accounting for 79%. The production of ternary batteries was stable, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 71% year - on - year [64] - In January, the monthly production of power cells was 120 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 36%; the monthly production of energy - storage cells was 89 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 11% and a year - on - year increase of 56%. The cell inventory - to - sales ratio continued to decline, and the inventory was at a low level [67] (3) Cathode Material and Electrolyte Production - Overall, the cathode material production remained at a high level. In January, the lithium iron phosphate production was 397,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 58%. The production of ternary materials in January was 81,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 58% [71] - In December, the electrolyte production was 227,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 42%; the lithium hexafluorophosphate production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 45% [76] V. Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Affected by the supply - demand tension of lithium carbonate, the inventory maintained a downward trend, but the inventory days increased slightly due to the production maintenance in January - February and the Spring Festival off - season. By the end of January, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 107,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton decrease from the previous month, and the inventory days were 28.5 days. The smelter inventory was at a historical low level, and the downstream inventory increased slightly but was still at a low level overall [77] - From the perspective of inventory seasonality, July to November is the destocking season, and then the inventory will continue to rise until June. Affected by the Spring Festival, the lithium carbonate inventory may show a cumulative state in February [81][83] - By the end of January, the exchange inventory was 30,000 tons, a 3,000 - ton increase compared with 27,000 tons before the inventory cancellation in November last year. The overall inventory was at a low level [85] VI. Lithium Carbonate Summary and Future Market Forecast - In the short term, lithium carbonate is still in a stage of supply falling short of demand, but the supply - demand tension will ease in February due to the decline in downstream demand during the Spring Festival [88] - In February, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to decrease by about 3% month - on - month. The import volume in January - February is expected to be about 22,000/15,000 tons. The production of lithium hydroxide may drop to about 25,000 tons in February. The total supply will reach 130,000 tons [89] - In February, due to the Spring Festival factor, the downstream production schedule is expected to decrease by about 10 - 15% month - on - month, and it is estimated to resume growth after March. In addition, the significant price drop of lithium carbonate at a high level will continue to effectively boost demand [89] - The current inventory is lower than the historical average level. It is expected that lithium carbonate may accumulate a small amount of inventory in February, but the overall inventory is at a low level. If the inventory accumulation in February is less than expected, the inventory in March may be further tightened [90]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the overcapacity situation of industrial silicon is expected to continue, but policy - end regulation will have a guiding effect. Production is expected to increase slightly by 3%, with overall demand increasing by about 5%. The mainstream price range is expected to be between 7,600 yuan/ton and 9,400 yuan/ton, and factors such as capacity optimization, enterprise dynamic production adjustment, and upward price transmission in the photovoltaic industry chain should be focused on [3][94]. - Compared with industrial silicon, polysilicon has greater variability. Currently, polysilicon has overcapacity and high inventory, but policy - based storage and price - support from leading enterprises provide strong support, driving up the prices of downstream silicon wafers and solar cells and contributing to the profit recovery of the photovoltaic industry. In 2026, it still faces the challenge of declining terminal demand. Policy implementation (energy - consumption regulations + platform - based storage) will have a significant impact on polysilicon prices. Capacity elimination and optimization are relatively certain events, and with the increasing concentration of production enterprises' capacity, polysilicon is generally "prone to rise but difficult to fall". It is recommended to conduct risk - hedging based on production conditions [4][97]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market in 2025 (1) Industrial Silicon Futures - The price trend in 2025 can be divided into three stages: continued decline from 2024 until early June, a rebound from early June to mid - July, and a consolidation period from August to the end of the year. The price dropped to a minimum of 6,990 yuan/ton in early June, with a decline of 36.5% from the beginning of the year, then rebounded to a maximum of 10,060 yuan/ton in mid - July, a 43.9% increase from the early - June low. The market entered a state of "subtle balance" later, with supply and demand both decreasing, high inventory but slight destocking, and reduced trading volume [7][10][11]. - In terms of the basis, the basis was relatively low in the first quarter. It reached the annual high in the second quarter as the futures price declined rapidly. In the third and fourth quarters, the basis was mainly driven by the futures price, with the spot price being 400 - 800 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, showing an obvious inverse market pattern [14]. (2) Polysilicon Futures - The price trend in 2025 can be divided into four stages: a calm period during the "rush - installation wave" from the beginning of the year to early April; a decline due to oversupply from early April to mid - late June, with the price dropping to a minimum of 30,400 yuan/ton, a 30% decline; a price increase boosted by the "anti - involution" policy from late June to late July, with the price reaching a maximum of 55,605 yuan/ton, an 83% increase in one month; and a high - level consolidation period from early August to the end of the year under the contradiction of "weak supply - demand vs. strong policy". The futures price fluctuated in the range of 48,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and reached a maximum of 61,985 yuan/ton after the establishment of the storage platform [15][18][20]. - The basis was relatively stable from January to April, around - 4,000 yuan/ton, then converged as the price fluctuated. From late July to mid - September, the futures price was higher than the spot price. The basis gradually widened from late October and exceeded - 10,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year [21]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Analysis (1) Capacity - In 2026, the effective capacity is expected to decline. The domestic industrial silicon capacity at the end of 2025 was 7.879 million tons. It is expected that 400,000 - 500,000 tons of new capacity will be added in 2026, while some capacity (mainly in Sichuan and Yunnan) will continue to be phased out, and the supply center will shift northward. The domestic industrial silicon capacity in 2026 is expected to be 8 - 8.2 million tons, with the effective capacity below 7.5 million tons [23]. - In 2025, the domestic industrial silicon capacity continued to expand. By November 2025, the capacity was 7.879 million tons, with an increase of 600,000 tons during the year, including 400,000 tons of newly - put - into - operation capacity and about 200,000 tons of restarted idle capacity. The incremental capacity mainly came from Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu [24]. - Policy impact on industrial silicon is relatively limited. The "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog (2024 Edition)" requires the elimination of certain types of furnaces, but the proportion of affected capacity is small (about 5% or 400,000 tons, mostly already shut down). The "anti - involution" policy has a limited impact on industrial silicon, and production is more affected by profit factors. As capacity further concentrates in the northern regions, the effect of joint production cuts by large enterprises is expected to improve [25][28]. - For new capacity in 2026, it is expected to be 400,000 - 500,000 tons. There are currently about 200,000 tons of completed but un - put - into - operation capacity (expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026) and 700,000 tons under construction (expected to be put into production in batches). The new capacity is highly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, accounting for 80%, and the project commissioning time will be concentrated in the first half of the year and the third quarter [29][33]. (2) Production - In 2025, the domestic industrial silicon production was about 4.27 million tons, a 12.8% year - on - year decrease, and the annual capacity utilization rate was about 54%. The production in the northern regions increased, with Xinjiang accounting for 52% of the total production from January to November 2025, and the four northern provinces (Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia) accounting for 81%, while Sichuan and Yunnan together accounted for less than 17% [34][37]. - The output of substitute products decreased. The output of 97 - silicon was expected to be about 110,000 tons in 2025, a 73% year - on - year decrease, and the output of recycled silicon was 180,000 tons, a 28% year - on - year decrease [41]. (3) Demand 1: Organic Silicon - In 2025, the production of organic silicon was basically flat. The cumulative production of domestic organic silicon DMC and other polysiloxanes in 2025 was expected to reach 2.72 million tons, almost the same as in 2024. The domestic consumption was 2.2 million tons, and the export was 203,200 tons, showing a tight balance with a slight surplus. The DMC price is currently in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/ton, and the profitability of enterprises has been significantly restored [44][47]. - In 2026, the organic silicon industry is also facing overcapacity, with no new device plans. Production or maintenance will be adjusted according to downstream demand. The downstream demand is relatively scattered, and the future growth points may be in smart wear and new energy. It is expected that the demand will increase slightly by 1 - 3% [47]. (4) Demand 2: Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the price of aluminum alloy showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and the price center increased in line with the price of primary aluminum. The cumulative production of domestic aluminum alloy from January to November 2025 was 17.456 million tons, a 15.8% year - on - year increase, and the annual production is expected to exceed 18 million tons, reaching a new high. The driving factors include the booming demand for new - energy vehicles, the accelerated release of recycled aluminum capacity, technological upgrades, and policy support [49][50]. - In 2026, the production of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to grow steadily by more than 10%. The main supporting factors include the implementation of "two new" policies in the new - energy vehicle sector, the increasing demand for aluminum alloy in energy storage and 5G fields, the possible supply shortage of recycled aluminum, and the gradual reaching of full production capacity by leading enterprises [54]. (5) Import and Export - In 2025, China's industrial silicon exports were expected to be 746,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous year. Overseas markets mainly purchase on demand, and exports in 2026 are expected to remain stable with limited growth [56]. (6) Cost and Profit - Electricity and silicon - coal account for about 75% of the total raw material cost of industrial silicon, and the price of coal has a higher correlation with the price of industrial silicon. Cost and profit are the main references for enterprises to adjust production [58]. - In the long - term, the electricity cost has a downward trend, but the regional and enterprise - level cost differences will increase. In 2026, the electricity price in low - price regions such as Xinjiang, Gansu, and Shandong is expected to decline, while in high - price regions such as Shanghai, Anhui, and Guangdong, it will be more resilient. The electricity price in intermediate regions such as Yunnan, Jiangxi, and Hebei South Grid will be stable [61][62]. - The price of silicon - coal has a significant impact on cost changes. The price increase of coal in early June 2025 boosted the price of industrial silicon [63]. 3. Polysilicon Market Analysis (1) 2025: Continued Overcapacity - From 2022 to 2024, the domestic polysilicon capacity expanded nearly six times. In 2025, the domestic polysilicon capacity was expected to be 3.32 million tons, with an effective capacity of 3.123 million tons, a 10.5% year - on - year increase. The production was expected to be 1.33 million tons, a 26% year - on - year decrease, and the annual capacity utilization rate was about 40% [64][67]. - In terms of demand, the domestic silicon wafer production in 2025 was 649 GW, and the consumption of polysilicon was about 1.23 million tons. With exports of 23,500 tons and imports of 19,000 tons, the domestic polysilicon market still had overcapacity, but the surplus was narrower than in 2023 and 2024 [71]. (2) Supply - For capacity changes in 2026, it can be analyzed from three aspects: project planning, energy - consumption regulations, and platform - based storage. It is expected that more than 400,000 tons of new capacity will be put into production by the end of 2026 [72]. - Energy - consumption regulations will adjust the polysilicon capacity. About 450,000 tons of existing capacity may not meet the new energy - consumption standards and will be phased out, and some capacity needs to be technically upgraded. After the implementation of the new standards, the domestic effective polysilicon capacity is expected to drop to about 2.4 million tons per year [72]. - The storage platform "Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd." was registered in December 2025. It plans to adopt a dual - track operation mode of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible capacity storage" to optimize the capacity structure. The goal is to shut down 1 - 1.2 million tons of capacity and retain 1.5 million tons of effective capacity [72][73]. - The supply in 2026 largely depends on policy - end regulation, and it is preliminarily estimated that the supply will be between 1.4 - 1.5 million tons [77]. (3) Demand - In 2025, the nominal capacity of each link in the photovoltaic industry chain was high, but the actual production was affected by weak demand and industry self - regulation. The production of polysilicon decreased for the first time in 12 years, the growth rate of silicon wafer and module production slowed down, and the capacity investment in solar cells continued to grow [78][79]. - In 2026, global photovoltaic installation will benefit from energy transformation, emerging market development, and policy support. However, the demand in China, the United States, and Europe is expected to remain stable or decline. The demand for domestic polysilicon should not be overly optimistic due to factors such as the loss of downstream products, the possible reduction of domestic installation after the subsidy withdrawal, and the restriction of exports by other countries. The demand for polysilicon is estimated to range from 1.32 - 1.58 million tons under different installation scenarios [83][84]. (4) Inventory - As of the end of December 2025, the total inventory of polysilicon was 523,000 tons, reaching a recent high. The inventory of silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules was in a relatively normal state, but the module inventory showed a cumulative trend in the second half of the year [86]. - It is expected that the polysilicon inventory will remain high in the first quarter of 2026 and may increase further. It will decline in the second and third quarters as demand recovers and the installation season arrives, and enter a stable period in the fourth quarter [88]. (5) Cost - The cost of polysilicon is mainly composed of electricity, silicon powder, and other raw materials, with electricity accounting for about 50%. The "anti - involution" policy in 2025 prohibited selling below cost [89]. - There are differences in the calculation basis of polysilicon cost between market participants and production enterprises. In 2026, with the progress of the industrial storage platform, the concentration of production will further increase, and it will play a leading role in guiding the cost and price of polysilicon, which is an important bottom - support for the price [90]. 4. Summary: Supply - Demand Structure and Strategy Suggestions for Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon in 2026 (1) Industrial Silicon - In 2026, the overcapacity of industrial silicon is expected to continue, but policy regulation will guide production to increase slightly by 3% and demand to increase by about 5%. The mainstream price range is expected to be 7,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and factors such as capacity optimization, enterprise production adjustment, and price transmission in the photovoltaic industry chain should be focused on [94]. (2) Polysilicon - Polysilicon has greater variability. Currently, it has overcapacity and high inventory, but policy - based storage and price - support from leading enterprises provide strong support. In 2026, it faces the challenge of declining terminal demand, and policy implementation will have a significant impact on prices. Capacity elimination and optimization are certain events, and polysilicon is generally "prone to rise but difficult to fall". It is recommended to conduct risk - hedging based on production conditions [97][98].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, supply and demand of lithium carbonate will both grow at a high - speed. The growth in energy storage will support the price of lithium carbonate to fluctuate in a relatively strong range. The demand growth rate will exceed the supply growth rate, and the oversupply volume will slightly decrease compared to 2025. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain volatile between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][3]. - The risk points are the accelerated production of upstream mines and the demand growth rate falling short of expectations [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Market Review (1) Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Trend - In 2025, the lithium carbonate market showed a trend of first declining and then rising. From January to May, due to the panic of the tariff war and the oversupply, the price dropped below 60,000 yuan. From June to July, influenced by the "anti - involution" policy and the price approaching the cost line, the price rose to 70,000 - 80,000 yuan. On August 8, concerns about supply contraction caused the price to hit the daily limit, and then it gradually fell back. From October to November, due to increased energy storage demand and decreased mica ore supply, the price returned to 100,000 yuan. In December, the price continued to rise and finally closed at around 120,000 yuan. The annual increase of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 55%, and the price fluctuation range was 99%. The trading volume and open interest reached record highs [7][8][9]. (2) Lithium Carbonate Spot and Basis - Spot prices: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose from 75,000 yuan at the beginning of 2025 to 112,000 yuan at the end, with a 49% increase. The price of lithium hydroxide rose from 70,000 yuan/ton to 102,000 yuan, with a 46% increase. The price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide widened from about 5,000 yuan at the beginning to 11,000 yuan at the end, indicating stronger downstream demand for lithium carbonate. - Basis: The main basis once expanded to - 10,000 yuan/ton or lower, setting a record since listing. The correlation between futures and spot prices was strong, but when futures prices rose rapidly, the increase in the SMM spot average price was relatively small [14][19]. (3) Price Trends in the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In 2025, prices in the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally increased. Cobalt - lithium oxide had a growth rate of over 170% due to the sharp rise in cobalt prices. Lithium hexafluorophosphate had a growth rate of over 160% due to limited supply in the phosphochemical industry and unexpected demand. The price of upstream lithium ore increased by 82%. The growth rates of intermediate raw materials such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were over 55%. The growth rates of downstream battery cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials were about 35% [20]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis (1) Domestic Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis - Salt lake lithium extraction: It is expected that the output in 2026 will reach 276,000 tons, an increase of 98,000 tons compared to 2025, with a nearly 55% increase. The largest output increments come from the Chaerhan Salt Lake of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., the Laguo Co Salt Lake of Zijin Mining, and the Mami Cuo Salt Lake of Zangge Mining. In the future, the output growth will mainly come from Tibetan salt lakes, with an increment of 41,000 tons in 2026, accounting for over 40% of the total increment [23]. - Mica ore lithium extraction: The output in 2026 is expected to be 232,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to 2025, a 63% year - on - year increase. The increments mainly come from the resumption of production at the Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mine, the increased production at the Qiankeng Lithium Mine, and the commissioning of mica mines in Inner Mongolia and Hunan [27]. - Spodumene lithium extraction: The output in 2026 is expected to be 86,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons, a 62% year - on - year increase. The main increments come from the Dahongliutan Lithium Mine of Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals, the Jiada Lithium Mine of Dazhong Mining, and the Lijiagou Spodumene Mine [34]. - Overall, in 2025, although the output of mica - produced lithium carbonate decreased, the increase in salt lake and spodumene output led to a 20% increase in domestic lithium carbonate output. In 2026, due to the significant increase in capacity at the salt lake and mica ends, the domestic lithium carbonate output is expected to reach 594,000 tons, a 59% increase [37]. (2) Overseas Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis - South American salt lakes: The lithium carbonate output in 2026 is expected to be 517,000 tons, an increase of 64,000 tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. The increments mainly come from the Atacama Salt Lake of SQM, the Centenario - Ratones Salt Lake of Eramet, and the 3Q Salt Lake of Zijin Mining [39]. - Australian spodumene mines: The output of Australian mines is expected to increase slightly by 17,000 tons in 2026, reaching 492,000 tons. The increase mainly comes from the Greenbushes, Pilgangoora, and Holland mines, while the Wodgina and Marion mines will reduce production [45]. - African spodumene mines: The output in 2025 was estimated to be 211,000 tons, an 82% year - on - year increase compared to 2024. It is expected to reach 349,000 tons in 2026, an increase of 138,000 tons, a nearly 40% year - on - year increase. The main increments in 2026 come from the Goulamina Mine of Ganfeng Lithium, the Bikita Mine of Zhongke Resources, the Arcadia Mine of Huayou Cobalt, and the Manono Mine of Zijin Mining [49]. - American spodumene mines: The output in 2026 is expected to be 75,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. The Grota do Cirilo Mine in Brazil is expected to fully increase its capacity in Q1 2026, and the NAL Mine of North American Lithium is expected to maintain its output [56]. - Overall overseas supply: From 2025 to 2026, the overseas supply growth rates were 25% and 18% respectively. In 2026, the overseas new lithium carbonate output was 222,000 tons, with a total output of 1.434 million tons [61]. (3) Global Lithium Carbonate Supply and Cost Analysis - Global supply: In 2025, the global lithium carbonate output was estimated to be 1.67 million tons, a 24% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 2.13 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. The domestic supply will increase by 220,000 tons, and the overseas supply will increase by 220,000 tons [62]. - Global cost: The global lithium carbonate cash cost is estimated to be 55,000 yuan/ton at the 80% cash cost line. Considering a depreciation cost of 5,000 yuan/ton, the production cost is expected to be 60,000 yuan/ton [67][68]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Demand Analysis (1) Power Battery Demand Analysis - In 2025, from January to November, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% respectively. It is expected that the sales volume in 2025 will be 16.6 million, a 29% year - on - year increase. In 2026, due to the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax incentives in China and the expiration of tax credits in the US, the sales growth rates in these two countries will decline. However, Europe and other regions are expected to maintain high demand. It is estimated that the global new - energy vehicle sales growth rate in 2026 will be 22%, and the global power battery installation growth rate may reach 28% [71][73]. (2) Energy Storage Battery Demand Analysis - In 2025, the new - energy power generation installed capacity in China increased significantly. After the end of the mandatory energy storage allocation policy, the domestic new - energy storage market first declined and then rose. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of new - energy storage in China reached 101.3 GW, a 110% year - on - year increase. Overseas energy storage demand also increased significantly. It is estimated that the global energy storage battery shipment in 2026 will maintain a high growth rate of about 60%, reaching 1040 GWh [81][84][87]. (3) Global Lithium Carbonate Demand Analysis - In 2025, the power battery demand drove the lithium carbonate demand to increase by 210,000 tons, a 31% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 1.08 million tons, an increase of 220,000 tons, a 25% year - on - year increase. The energy storage demand drove the lithium carbonate demand to increase by 190,000 tons in 2025, an 83% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 680,000 tons, an increase of 250,000 tons, a 60% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the total global lithium carbonate demand was estimated to be 1.55 million tons, a 36% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it is expected to reach 2.02 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase [92]. 4. Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Analysis - In 2025, due to multiple factors such as the "anti - involution" policy, domestic mica ore production reduction, and the explosion of global energy storage demand, the oversupply contradiction of lithium carbonate was gradually alleviated, and the market was in a state of tight supply - demand balance. - In 2026, on the supply side, domestic supply will increase by nearly 59% year - on - year, and overseas supply will increase by 18%. The global lithium carbonate output will reach 2.13 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. On the demand side, the energy storage battery demand will maintain a high growth rate, and the power battery demand growth rate will slightly decline. The global lithium carbonate demand will reach 2.02 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase. Overall, the demand growth rate will exceed the supply growth rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][3][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of lithium carbonate is that it presents a pattern of increasing supply, high demand, and inventory depletion. The market is hot, and the supply - demand tension is marginally alleviated but there is still a gap. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in December [2]. - The risk points are the resumption of mica ore production and the slowdown of demand growth [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Market Review (1) November Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In November 2025, the futures price of lithium carbonate showed a significant upward trend. Affected by factors such as increased energy - storage demand, the price was supported at 80,000 yuan and strengthened. After the speech of the chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, the futures price rose by the daily limit on November 17th. However, due to exchange policy regulation and Goldman Sachs' bearish report, the price dropped sharply on November 21st. Then, after the speech of the chairman of Tianqi Lithium, the LC2605 price rose by 5% [6][7][8]. - The monthly cumulative trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 26.99 million lots, and the open interest was 1.07 million lots, setting a record high since listing. The monthly increase of the main contract LC2605 in November reached 19.42% [9]. (2) November Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In November, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. The average price of electric - grade lithium carbonate was 93,700 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,300 yuan/ton, with a 17% increase from the previous month. The price of lithium hydroxide increased by 8 - 9%, and the price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide widened, indicating strong demand for lithium carbonate [12]. - The basis once expanded to - 10,000 yuan/ton and then fell back to - 2,500 yuan/ton at the end of November. The spot price closely followed the futures price, and the price difference reached a new high since February last year [18]. (3) Price Trends of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In November, the prices of the upstream and downstream of lithium carbonate generally increased. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene increased by 24% to 1,217 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 58%, driving the electrolyte price up by 36%. The monthly increase of lithium iron phosphate was nearly 10%, and that of ternary materials was 3 - 5% [20]. II. Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Ore Price Trend and Lithium Carbonate Production Profit - In November, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate increased from 985 US dollars/ton to 1,217.5 US dollars/ton, with a 23.6% increase. The prices of spodumene concentrates from Brazil and Africa also rose significantly. The price of lithium mica concentrate increased to 2,600 yuan/ton, with a 19.3% monthly increase [21]. - The production profit of purchasing spodumene fell back to near the break - even point, and the loss of purchasing mica decreased as the lithium price rose [25]. (2) Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In November, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the supply of lithium ore gradually increased. Although the available inventory in warehouses was low, the inventory of port traders continued to rise. The inventory of lithium salt plants recovered compared with before. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to production suspension in Jiangxi. The current upstream resource supply mainly came from salt lakes and spodumene [28]. - The Jiaxiaowo lithium mine in Jiangxi was still shut down, and it was expected to resume production at the end of December or early next year at the earliest [33]. III. Supply Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Carbonate Production - In November, the production of lithium carbonate was about 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons. The production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 25,000 tons. The main production source was spodumene, with an output of nearly 58,000 tons [34][38]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 56%. The capacity utilization rates of spodumene and salt - lake sources were higher than the average, while that of lithium mica was low [43]. (2) Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In October, the import of lithium carbonate was 23,900 tons, and the export was 246 tons, with a net import of 23,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 4,200 tons. Chile and Argentina were the main import sources, accounting for over 90% of the total import. The average import price in October was 8,931 US dollars/ton, a 300 - US - dollar increase from the previous month [46][51]. (3) Production and Apparent Demand of Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the production of lithium hydroxide was nearly 30,000 tons, almost the same as last year and a month - on - month increase of 650 tons. In October, the net export of lithium hydroxide was 1,597 tons. Assuming the same net - export situation in November, the apparent demand was 28,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [52]. IV. Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Sales of New - Energy Vehicles - In October, the sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.72 million, a 20% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative sales were 12.91 million, a 33% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1.93 million, an 86% year - on - year increase, accounting for 15% of the total sales. Pure - electric vehicles accounted for 65%, and the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales reached 51.6%, exceeding that of traditional vehicles [54][59]. (2) Production of Lithium Batteries and Cells - In November, the production of lithium batteries by sample enterprises was nearly 200 GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 77% with a production of 154 GWh. The production of power cells in November was 128 GWh, a 35% increase from the end of last year, and that of energy - storage cells was 58 GWh, a 53% increase. The inventory - to - sales ratio of cells continued to decline [60][63]. (3) Production of Cathode Materials and Electrolytes - Since the middle of this year, the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has "exploded". In November, the production was 413,000 tons, a 44% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the production of ternary materials was 738,000 tons, a 17% increase from the same period last year. The operating rates of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials continued to rise [67][68]. - In November, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 58%, and the price of electrolyte increased by 36%. In October, the production of electrolyte was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons, and the production of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [72]. V. Lithium Carbonate Inventory - As of the end of November, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from the peak in late July. The inventory days decreased from the maximum of 45 days to 26 days. The refinery inventory decreased to 24,000 tons, and the inventory days were 5.5 days, a new low in more than a year [73]. - From July to November is the destocking season, and then the inventory will rise until June. Due to strong demand, lithium carbonate may continue to be destocked in December, but the destocking speed will slow down. The exchange inventory has been lower than the same - period level this year, especially from October to November when it decreased significantly [76][80]. VI. Summary and Future Forecast of Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate and related industries showed a significant upward trend. In December, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, but it will be marginally alleviated. There is still a supply - demand gap [83][84]. - In terms of supply, the production of lithium carbonate in November was about 95,300 tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase. It is expected that after mid - December, the production in Jiangxi's core mining areas will gradually resume, with a 3% increase in December. The import volume in December is expected to reach about 26,000 tons. The production of lithium hydroxide is expected to remain at about 30,000 tons. The total production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will reach a new high in December, with a total supply of 150,000 tons in terms of LCE [84]. - In terms of demand, the demand is mainly from the explosive growth of energy - storage demand. In December, the demand is expected to decline slightly, but the new capacity of Hubei Bangpu Yichang Base will support the overall supply [85]. - In terms of inventory, the inventory is lower than the historical average. In December, lithium carbonate may continue to be destocked, but at a slower pace. Overall, lithium carbonate will maintain a fluctuating and strong trend in the future [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: 12 - month price is expected to show a pattern of shock consolidation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or conduct interval band operations. The main risk points include device start - up adjustments and polysilicon price transmission [3] - Polysilicon: It is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation in the short term. The price fluctuates in the high - level range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, with high volatility. Related enterprises can intervene in hedging. The risk points are the progress of policy procurement and enterprise device changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures market review**: In November 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon maintained a range - bound trend. The industrial silicon futures SI2601 contract ran in the range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton, closing at 9,130 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.33% month - on - month. The polysilicon futures PS2601 contract closed at 56,425 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.03% month - on - month [7][11][12] - **Basis performance**: For industrial silicon, the basis at the end of November was 385 yuan/ton, narrowing compared with the beginning of the month, and the basis change was mainly dominated by the futures price. For polysilicon, the basis at the end of November was - 3,090 yuan/ton, and the basis change was also mainly dominated by the futures price [15][16] 2. Industrial Silicon Market Situation Analysis - **Spot**: The prices of main production areas of industrial silicon changed little. The prices in the northwest followed the futures market, and there was a certain price fluctuation in the middle of the month, but it quickly fell back. The downstream demand for 553 was weak, while the market activity of 421 was high. There was no arbitrage opportunity between the spot and the futures [19][21] - **Supply**: As of November 25, the number of domestic industrial silicon furnaces in operation decreased to 265, with an overall opening rate of 33.29%. The output in November was about 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 12%, and it was expected to further decrease in December [22][26] - **Cost and profit**: In November, the cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang changed little, while the cost in Sichuan and Yunnan increased. The average full - cost of national industrial silicon was about 9,200 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers had cost inversion [30] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of industrial silicon showed a slight fluctuation, and it was still at a relatively high level. The social inventory decreased, the production enterprise inventory increased, and the downstream enterprise inventory changed little [33] 3. Polysilicon Market Situation Analysis - **Spot market price performance**: In November, the polysilicon price was basically stable. The N - type polysilicon price index decreased slightly month - on - month. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, but the polysilicon enterprises had a strong willingness to support the price [36][37] - **Supply**: The domestic polysilicon output in November was about 115,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 14%. It was expected to remain stable or slightly change in December [43][44] - **Cost and profit**: Since the implementation of the "anti - involution" in July 2025, the polysilicon product profit turned from loss to profit. In November, the cost increased and the profit declined, but the overall industry was still profitable [46] - **Demand**: - **Silicon wafer**: In November, the silicon wafer price decreased, the profit was generally in a loss state, and the output decreased. The production schedule in December was expected to further decline [48][50] - **Battery cell**: In November, the battery cell price and profit weakened, the output decline was limited, and the production schedule in December was expected to be further lowered [53] - **Component**: The component market price was weakly stable and differentiated. The production in November decreased slightly, and the production schedule in December was expected to further decline [58][61] - **Inventory**: The polysilicon production enterprise inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 281,000 tons. The downstream demand was weak, and the procurement was mainly based on rigid demand [62] 4. Silicon Industry Demand: Silicone & Aluminum Alloy - **Silicone market performance and demand forecast for silicon**: In November, the DMC price of the silicone market changed greatly. After the industry meeting, the price was raised. In December, affected by the production reduction policy and market expectations, the demand for industrial silicon was expected to drop to 100,000 - 110,000 tons [65][71] - **Aluminum alloy market performance and demand forecast for silicon**: In November, the aluminum alloy industry demand was stable, and the silicon consumption was at a rigid demand level. In December, the demand in the new energy field was stable, and some enterprises might increase production slightly. It was expected that the silicon consumption would increase by 3% - 5% compared with November [74][75] 5. Industrial Silicon Summary and Future Market Forecast - **Supply - demand structure summary**: In December, the domestic industrial silicon supply and demand were expected to decrease. The cost in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions was expected to increase, the profit was expected to decline, and the inventory was expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [76] - **Futures market trend analysis**: The industrial silicon market was in a relatively "tight balance" state. The price in December was expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main risk points were the enterprise device changes and polysilicon price transmission. The active contract would gradually shift from SI2601 to 2605 in the middle and later period, and attention should be paid to the roll - over risk [77] 6. Polysilicon Summary and Future Market Forecast - **Supply - demand structure summary**: In December, the polysilicon supply was expected to be flat or slightly fluctuate compared with November, the demand was expected to decline, and the inventory would remain at a high level [78][81] - **Futures market trend analysis**: The polysilicon market was in a relative "balance state". It was expected to show a high - level shock trend, and the inflection point still needed to wait. The polysilicon futures price had high volatility, and relevant enterprises could intervene in hedging operations [82]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rebounded, and currently, industry leaders are bullish on the demand and price of lithium carbonate in 2026. The market is conducting long - short trading around the resumption of production at Jiangxi mines, and the exchange has introduced policies to suppress price fluctuations [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to increase, and the supply is restricted. The cost is rising, which forms a support for the price. The price is expected to be between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background and Route - **Background**: In 2025, due to oversupply, the price of lithium carbonate dropped from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 60,000 yuan/ton at the end of June. Then, driven by favorable fundamentals, it climbed to around 100,000 yuan/ton. The market has different views on the future price, so the research was carried out [2] - **Route**: The research route covered Jiujiang, Xinyu, and Yichun, with a total of 7 research samples, including 4 lithium salt enterprises, 1 lithium mine enterprise, 1 battery enterprise, and 1 industry association [3] 3.2 Summary of Enterprise and Industry Research Information 3.2.1 Lithium Salt Enterprises - **J Company**: It extracts lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate from lithium - containing minerals. The planned production capacity is 50,000 tons, with 20,000 tons of flexible production lines already built. The production ratio of lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate is 1:1. It uses the causticization route, with over 60% of the ore used to produce lithium hydroxide. The raw materials are mainly from salt lakes and recycling, and the inventory is about one week. The monthly sales volume is 1200 - 1400 tons, and it plans to conduct hedging [4] - **L Company**: It processes lithium salt relying on upstream cooperative mining enterprises. The current production capacity is 40,000 tons, and the current monthly output is 3300 tons. The raw materials are mainly from Hunan, and the price is calculated based on futures and processing fees. It is in a state of full production and full sales, and the price is set according to futures [4][5] - **H Company**: It is one of the earliest companies to extract lithium from mica, with a production capacity of 15,000 tons. It is in full - production, and the raw materials are mainly mica ore and recycled materials. The supply is affected by the market price of lithium carbonate [5] - **T Company**: It engages in lithium salt toll - processing, with a production capacity of 5000 tons. The downstream demand is good, and the production is scheduled until the first half of next year. The processing fee has decreased, and it participates in futures hedging. It estimates that the price of lithium carbonate will reach 150,000 yuan/ton next year [5][6] 3.2.2 Lithium Mine Enterprise - **Z Company**: The mine has an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate. After the technological transformation at the end of this year, the corresponding production capacity of lithium fluoride and lithium carbonate will be 72,000 tons. The current production capacity is about 60,000 tons, and it is expected to reach 50,000 - 60,000 tons in 2026. It also produces rubidium and cesium salts, with a profit margin of over 50%. It has participated in futures hedging of several thousand tons [7] 3.2.3 Battery Enterprise - **D Company**: It focuses on high - end semi - solid polymer small - power lithium - ion batteries, with products used in drones and two - wheeled vehicles. The downstream order demand is strong, and the prices of raw materials such as electrolyte, diaphragm, and cathode materials are rising. It believes that the price of lithium carbonate will be above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the demand for small - power batteries will be huge [8][9] 3.2.4 Industry Association - **F Branch**: In November 2025, the global supply of lithium carbonate was about 115,000 tons, with a demand of 128,000 tons, a gap of 13,000 tons. The A - share lithium mining sector has room for valuation repair. The whole - industry chain inventory is at a historical low, with strong demand resilience and huge restocking demand [10] - **Demand**: In 2026, the adjustment of the purchase tax exemption policy will drive the demand for new energy vehicles, and the breakthrough in all - solid - state battery technology will open up the application space for lithium resources. The demand for lithium carbonate in the energy storage field is increasing [11] - **Supply**: The resumption of production of a core lithium mine in Jiangxi is delayed, the production capacity and output of lithium mica enterprises in Yichun have decreased, and the supply expansion of overseas lithium resources is restricted [11][12] - **Cost**: The cost of lithium carbonate is rising, and 80,000 yuan/ton is the critical line for the restart of high - cost production capacity [12] - **2026 Expectation**: The optimistic expectation is that the demand growth rate is 30 - 40%, and the price is expected to exceed 150,000 yuan/ton. The neutral expectation is that the price will be maintained at 100,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Summary of Lithium Salt Research - **Supply and Demand**: The prices of the whole lithium carbonate industry chain are rising, and enterprises generally believe that the price will be above 100,000 yuan/ton next year. The leading lithium salt enterprises in Yichun are in a state of full production and full sales, while non - leading enterprises are in a state of suspension [13] - **Quotation**: The sales prices of lithium ore, recycled materials, and lithium carbonate are basically linked to the market price of lithium carbonate plus or minus the processing fee [14] - **Resumption of Production**: The Jiuxiaowo mine is still shut down, and the earliest resumption of production will be at the end of December or early next year. The actual monthly supply of lithium carbonate is about 7000 tons [14] - **Cost**: The cost of lithium mica is equivalent to a lithium carbonate price of 100,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of the Jiuxiaowo mine is expected to be 80,000 yuan/ton [14] - **Future Supply and Demand and Price**: It is expected that in 2026, the global supply of lithium carbonate will be 2.089 million tons, and the demand will be 2.004 million tons, with a static surplus of 85,000 tons. Considering the restocking demand, the supply - demand structure will be in short supply, and the price is likely to fluctuate between 100,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]