华金期货品种报告 产业分类：新能源-双硅 分析师：马园园 执业资格证号： F3059193/Z0016074 华金期货有限公司 交易咨询 公楼 22 层 电话：400-995-5889 资决策的唯一参考因素，亦不 应认为本报告可以取代自己的 判断。 本报告版权仅为本公司所 明出处，且不得对本报告进行 任何有悖原意的引用、删节和 修改。 工业硅、多晶硅 2026 年策略报告 期货研究报告 双硅产能过剩，"政策"落地执行为关键变量 报告日期：2025.12.31 报告内容摘要： 工业硅： 2025 年工业硅价格经历了"下跌-反弹-震荡"行情，与其基本面 供需现况基本吻合。2026 年来看，供应端：新增产能投放&淘汰落后 产能叠加下，产能仍然过剩，供应较大程度取决于企业根据需求与利 润的动态调整，预计小增；需求端：多晶硅、有机硅在 2025 年"低 基数"基础上有所增加，而铝合金维持平稳增长。主流价格区间预计 在 7600 元/吨-9400 元/吨，价格重心或较当前有所下移。 经营范围：商品期货经纪、金 融期货经纪、资产管理、期货 地址：天津市和平区五大道街 南京路 183 号世纪都会商厦办 重点关注：成本端重点关 ...

华金期货华金期货 碳酸锂年度报告 月度报告 期货研究报告 产业分类：新能源-碳酸锂 分析师：毛玮炜 执业资格证号： F3051431/Z0013833 华金期货有限公司 经营范围：商品期货经纪、金 融期货经纪、资产管理、期货 交易咨询 地址：天津市和平区五大道街 南京路 183 号世纪都会商厦办 公楼 22 层 电话：400-995-5889 免责声明： 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 投资者不应将本报告为作出投 资决策的唯一参考因素，亦不 应认为本报告可以取代自己的 判断。 本报告版权仅为本公司所 有，未经书面许可，任何机构 和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制、发表或引用。如征得本 公司同意进行引用、刊发的， 需在允许的范围内使用，并注 明出处，且不得对本报告进行 任何有悖原意的引用、删节和 修改。 碳酸锂： 2025 年由于反内卷政策、国内云母矿减产、全球储能需求爆发 等多重因素影响，碳酸锂的供大于求的矛盾逐渐缓解。全年供应增加 32 万吨，但是需求增加 41 万吨，碳酸锂出现供需紧平衡状态。 供给方面，2026 年在国内盐湖产量放量，江西锂云母复产叠加 内蒙和湖南云母矿投产背景下，国内供应同比增加近 59%。海 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of lithium carbonate is that it presents a pattern of increasing supply, high demand, and inventory depletion. The market is hot, and the supply - demand tension is marginally alleviated but there is still a gap. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in December [2]. - The risk points are the resumption of mica ore production and the slowdown of demand growth [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Market Review (1) November Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In November 2025, the futures price of lithium carbonate showed a significant upward trend. Affected by factors such as increased energy - storage demand, the price was supported at 80,000 yuan and strengthened. After the speech of the chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, the futures price rose by the daily limit on November 17th. However, due to exchange policy regulation and Goldman Sachs' bearish report, the price dropped sharply on November 21st. Then, after the speech of the chairman of Tianqi Lithium, the LC2605 price rose by 5% [6][7][8]. - The monthly cumulative trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 26.99 million lots, and the open interest was 1.07 million lots, setting a record high since listing. The monthly increase of the main contract LC2605 in November reached 19.42% [9]. (2) November Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In November, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. The average price of electric - grade lithium carbonate was 93,700 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,300 yuan/ton, with a 17% increase from the previous month. The price of lithium hydroxide increased by 8 - 9%, and the price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide widened, indicating strong demand for lithium carbonate [12]. - The basis once expanded to - 10,000 yuan/ton and then fell back to - 2,500 yuan/ton at the end of November. The spot price closely followed the futures price, and the price difference reached a new high since February last year [18]. (3) Price Trends of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In November, the prices of the upstream and downstream of lithium carbonate generally increased. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene increased by 24% to 1,217 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 58%, driving the electrolyte price up by 36%. The monthly increase of lithium iron phosphate was nearly 10%, and that of ternary materials was 3 - 5% [20]. II. Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Ore Price Trend and Lithium Carbonate Production Profit - In November, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate increased from 985 US dollars/ton to 1,217.5 US dollars/ton, with a 23.6% increase. The prices of spodumene concentrates from Brazil and Africa also rose significantly. The price of lithium mica concentrate increased to 2,600 yuan/ton, with a 19.3% monthly increase [21]. - The production profit of purchasing spodumene fell back to near the break - even point, and the loss of purchasing mica decreased as the lithium price rose [25]. (2) Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In November, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the supply of lithium ore gradually increased. Although the available inventory in warehouses was low, the inventory of port traders continued to rise. The inventory of lithium salt plants recovered compared with before. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to production suspension in Jiangxi. The current upstream resource supply mainly came from salt lakes and spodumene [28]. - The Jiaxiaowo lithium mine in Jiangxi was still shut down, and it was expected to resume production at the end of December or early next year at the earliest [33]. III. Supply Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Carbonate Production - In November, the production of lithium carbonate was about 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons. The production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 25,000 tons. The main production source was spodumene, with an output of nearly 58,000 tons [34][38]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 56%. The capacity utilization rates of spodumene and salt - lake sources were higher than the average, while that of lithium mica was low [43]. (2) Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In October, the import of lithium carbonate was 23,900 tons, and the export was 246 tons, with a net import of 23,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 4,200 tons. Chile and Argentina were the main import sources, accounting for over 90% of the total import. The average import price in October was 8,931 US dollars/ton, a 300 - US - dollar increase from the previous month [46][51]. (3) Production and Apparent Demand of Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the production of lithium hydroxide was nearly 30,000 tons, almost the same as last year and a month - on - month increase of 650 tons. In October, the net export of lithium hydroxide was 1,597 tons. Assuming the same net - export situation in November, the apparent demand was 28,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [52]. IV. Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Sales of New - Energy Vehicles - In October, the sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.72 million, a 20% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative sales were 12.91 million, a 33% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1.93 million, an 86% year - on - year increase, accounting for 15% of the total sales. Pure - electric vehicles accounted for 65%, and the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales reached 51.6%, exceeding that of traditional vehicles [54][59]. (2) Production of Lithium Batteries and Cells - In November, the production of lithium batteries by sample enterprises was nearly 200 GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 77% with a production of 154 GWh. The production of power cells in November was 128 GWh, a 35% increase from the end of last year, and that of energy - storage cells was 58 GWh, a 53% increase. The inventory - to - sales ratio of cells continued to decline [60][63]. (3) Production of Cathode Materials and Electrolytes - Since the middle of this year, the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has "exploded". In November, the production was 413,000 tons, a 44% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the production of ternary materials was 738,000 tons, a 17% increase from the same period last year. The operating rates of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials continued to rise [67][68]. - In November, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 58%, and the price of electrolyte increased by 36%. In October, the production of electrolyte was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons, and the production of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [72]. V. Lithium Carbonate Inventory - As of the end of November, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from the peak in late July. The inventory days decreased from the maximum of 45 days to 26 days. The refinery inventory decreased to 24,000 tons, and the inventory days were 5.5 days, a new low in more than a year [73]. - From July to November is the destocking season, and then the inventory will rise until June. Due to strong demand, lithium carbonate may continue to be destocked in December, but the destocking speed will slow down. The exchange inventory has been lower than the same - period level this year, especially from October to November when it decreased significantly [76][80]. VI. Summary and Future Forecast of Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate and related industries showed a significant upward trend. In December, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, but it will be marginally alleviated. There is still a supply - demand gap [83][84]. - In terms of supply, the production of lithium carbonate in November was about 95,300 tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase. It is expected that after mid - December, the production in Jiangxi's core mining areas will gradually resume, with a 3% increase in December. The import volume in December is expected to reach about 26,000 tons. The production of lithium hydroxide is expected to remain at about 30,000 tons. The total production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will reach a new high in December, with a total supply of 150,000 tons in terms of LCE [84]. - In terms of demand, the demand is mainly from the explosive growth of energy - storage demand. In December, the demand is expected to decline slightly, but the new capacity of Hubei Bangpu Yichang Base will support the overall supply [85]. - In terms of inventory, the inventory is lower than the historical average. In December, lithium carbonate may continue to be destocked, but at a slower pace. Overall, lithium carbonate will maintain a fluctuating and strong trend in the future [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: 12 - month price is expected to show a pattern of shock consolidation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or conduct interval band operations. The main risk points include device start - up adjustments and polysilicon price transmission [3] - Polysilicon: It is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation in the short term. The price fluctuates in the high - level range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, with high volatility. Related enterprises can intervene in hedging. The risk points are the progress of policy procurement and enterprise device changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures market review**: In November 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon maintained a range - bound trend. The industrial silicon futures SI2601 contract ran in the range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton, closing at 9,130 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.33% month - on - month. The polysilicon futures PS2601 contract closed at 56,425 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.03% month - on - month [7][11][12] - **Basis performance**: For industrial silicon, the basis at the end of November was 385 yuan/ton, narrowing compared with the beginning of the month, and the basis change was mainly dominated by the futures price. For polysilicon, the basis at the end of November was - 3,090 yuan/ton, and the basis change was also mainly dominated by the futures price [15][16] 2. Industrial Silicon Market Situation Analysis - **Spot**: The prices of main production areas of industrial silicon changed little. The prices in the northwest followed the futures market, and there was a certain price fluctuation in the middle of the month, but it quickly fell back. The downstream demand for 553 was weak, while the market activity of 421 was high. There was no arbitrage opportunity between the spot and the futures [19][21] - **Supply**: As of November 25, the number of domestic industrial silicon furnaces in operation decreased to 265, with an overall opening rate of 33.29%. The output in November was about 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 12%, and it was expected to further decrease in December [22][26] - **Cost and profit**: In November, the cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang changed little, while the cost in Sichuan and Yunnan increased. The average full - cost of national industrial silicon was about 9,200 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers had cost inversion [30] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of industrial silicon showed a slight fluctuation, and it was still at a relatively high level. The social inventory decreased, the production enterprise inventory increased, and the downstream enterprise inventory changed little [33] 3. Polysilicon Market Situation Analysis - **Spot market price performance**: In November, the polysilicon price was basically stable. The N - type polysilicon price index decreased slightly month - on - month. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, but the polysilicon enterprises had a strong willingness to support the price [36][37] - **Supply**: The domestic polysilicon output in November was about 115,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 14%. It was expected to remain stable or slightly change in December [43][44] - **Cost and profit**: Since the implementation of the "anti - involution" in July 2025, the polysilicon product profit turned from loss to profit. In November, the cost increased and the profit declined, but the overall industry was still profitable [46] - **Demand**: - **Silicon wafer**: In November, the silicon wafer price decreased, the profit was generally in a loss state, and the output decreased. The production schedule in December was expected to further decline [48][50] - **Battery cell**: In November, the battery cell price and profit weakened, the output decline was limited, and the production schedule in December was expected to be further lowered [53] - **Component**: The component market price was weakly stable and differentiated. The production in November decreased slightly, and the production schedule in December was expected to further decline [58][61] - **Inventory**: The polysilicon production enterprise inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 281,000 tons. The downstream demand was weak, and the procurement was mainly based on rigid demand [62] 4. Silicon Industry Demand: Silicone & Aluminum Alloy - **Silicone market performance and demand forecast for silicon**: In November, the DMC price of the silicone market changed greatly. After the industry meeting, the price was raised. In December, affected by the production reduction policy and market expectations, the demand for industrial silicon was expected to drop to 100,000 - 110,000 tons [65][71] - **Aluminum alloy market performance and demand forecast for silicon**: In November, the aluminum alloy industry demand was stable, and the silicon consumption was at a rigid demand level. In December, the demand in the new energy field was stable, and some enterprises might increase production slightly. It was expected that the silicon consumption would increase by 3% - 5% compared with November [74][75] 5. Industrial Silicon Summary and Future Market Forecast - **Supply - demand structure summary**: In December, the domestic industrial silicon supply and demand were expected to decrease. The cost in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions was expected to increase, the profit was expected to decline, and the inventory was expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [76] - **Futures market trend analysis**: The industrial silicon market was in a relatively "tight balance" state. The price in December was expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main risk points were the enterprise device changes and polysilicon price transmission. The active contract would gradually shift from SI2601 to 2605 in the middle and later period, and attention should be paid to the roll - over risk [77] 6. Polysilicon Summary and Future Market Forecast - **Supply - demand structure summary**: In December, the polysilicon supply was expected to be flat or slightly fluctuate compared with November, the demand was expected to decline, and the inventory would remain at a high level [78][81] - **Futures market trend analysis**: The polysilicon market was in a relative "balance state". It was expected to show a high - level shock trend, and the inflection point still needed to wait. The polysilicon futures price had high volatility, and relevant enterprises could intervene in hedging operations [82]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rebounded, and currently, industry leaders are bullish on the demand and price of lithium carbonate in 2026. The market is conducting long - short trading around the resumption of production at Jiangxi mines, and the exchange has introduced policies to suppress price fluctuations [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to increase, and the supply is restricted. The cost is rising, which forms a support for the price. The price is expected to be between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background and Route - **Background**: In 2025, due to oversupply, the price of lithium carbonate dropped from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 60,000 yuan/ton at the end of June. Then, driven by favorable fundamentals, it climbed to around 100,000 yuan/ton. The market has different views on the future price, so the research was carried out [2] - **Route**: The research route covered Jiujiang, Xinyu, and Yichun, with a total of 7 research samples, including 4 lithium salt enterprises, 1 lithium mine enterprise, 1 battery enterprise, and 1 industry association [3] 3.2 Summary of Enterprise and Industry Research Information 3.2.1 Lithium Salt Enterprises - **J Company**: It extracts lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate from lithium - containing minerals. The planned production capacity is 50,000 tons, with 20,000 tons of flexible production lines already built. The production ratio of lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate is 1:1. It uses the causticization route, with over 60% of the ore used to produce lithium hydroxide. The raw materials are mainly from salt lakes and recycling, and the inventory is about one week. The monthly sales volume is 1200 - 1400 tons, and it plans to conduct hedging [4] - **L Company**: It processes lithium salt relying on upstream cooperative mining enterprises. The current production capacity is 40,000 tons, and the current monthly output is 3300 tons. The raw materials are mainly from Hunan, and the price is calculated based on futures and processing fees. It is in a state of full production and full sales, and the price is set according to futures [4][5] - **H Company**: It is one of the earliest companies to extract lithium from mica, with a production capacity of 15,000 tons. It is in full - production, and the raw materials are mainly mica ore and recycled materials. The supply is affected by the market price of lithium carbonate [5] - **T Company**: It engages in lithium salt toll - processing, with a production capacity of 5000 tons. The downstream demand is good, and the production is scheduled until the first half of next year. The processing fee has decreased, and it participates in futures hedging. It estimates that the price of lithium carbonate will reach 150,000 yuan/ton next year [5][6] 3.2.2 Lithium Mine Enterprise - **Z Company**: The mine has an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate. After the technological transformation at the end of this year, the corresponding production capacity of lithium fluoride and lithium carbonate will be 72,000 tons. The current production capacity is about 60,000 tons, and it is expected to reach 50,000 - 60,000 tons in 2026. It also produces rubidium and cesium salts, with a profit margin of over 50%. It has participated in futures hedging of several thousand tons [7] 3.2.3 Battery Enterprise - **D Company**: It focuses on high - end semi - solid polymer small - power lithium - ion batteries, with products used in drones and two - wheeled vehicles. The downstream order demand is strong, and the prices of raw materials such as electrolyte, diaphragm, and cathode materials are rising. It believes that the price of lithium carbonate will be above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the demand for small - power batteries will be huge [8][9] 3.2.4 Industry Association - **F Branch**: In November 2025, the global supply of lithium carbonate was about 115,000 tons, with a demand of 128,000 tons, a gap of 13,000 tons. The A - share lithium mining sector has room for valuation repair. The whole - industry chain inventory is at a historical low, with strong demand resilience and huge restocking demand [10] - **Demand**: In 2026, the adjustment of the purchase tax exemption policy will drive the demand for new energy vehicles, and the breakthrough in all - solid - state battery technology will open up the application space for lithium resources. The demand for lithium carbonate in the energy storage field is increasing [11] - **Supply**: The resumption of production of a core lithium mine in Jiangxi is delayed, the production capacity and output of lithium mica enterprises in Yichun have decreased, and the supply expansion of overseas lithium resources is restricted [11][12] - **Cost**: The cost of lithium carbonate is rising, and 80,000 yuan/ton is the critical line for the restart of high - cost production capacity [12] - **2026 Expectation**: The optimistic expectation is that the demand growth rate is 30 - 40%, and the price is expected to exceed 150,000 yuan/ton. The neutral expectation is that the price will be maintained at 100,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Summary of Lithium Salt Research - **Supply and Demand**: The prices of the whole lithium carbonate industry chain are rising, and enterprises generally believe that the price will be above 100,000 yuan/ton next year. The leading lithium salt enterprises in Yichun are in a state of full production and full sales, while non - leading enterprises are in a state of suspension [13] - **Quotation**: The sales prices of lithium ore, recycled materials, and lithium carbonate are basically linked to the market price of lithium carbonate plus or minus the processing fee [14] - **Resumption of Production**: The Jiuxiaowo mine is still shut down, and the earliest resumption of production will be at the end of December or early next year. The actual monthly supply of lithium carbonate is about 7000 tons [14] - **Cost**: The cost of lithium mica is equivalent to a lithium carbonate price of 100,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of the Jiuxiaowo mine is expected to be 80,000 yuan/ton [14] - **Future Supply and Demand and Price**: It is expected that in 2026, the global supply of lithium carbonate will be 2.089 million tons, and the demand will be 2.004 million tons, with a static surplus of 85,000 tons. Considering the restocking demand, the supply - demand structure will be in short supply, and the price is likely to fluctuate between 100,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew 67.17 billion yuan last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2509 contract is near the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. - In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow. After the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, the growth rate accelerated significantly. Despite having two fewer working days year - on - year, imports and exports and exports increased by 2.7% and 6.3% year - on - year respectively. The total value of China - US imports and exports was 285.51 billion yuan, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.67%, and the decline was 0.58 percentage points narrower than in April. Citigroup postponed its forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and expects three interest rate cuts of 75 basis points this year, revised from the previous forecast of 100 basis points [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow, and the growth rate accelerated after the China - US economic and trade high - level talks. Citigroup postponed the forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and revised the expected interest rate cut amount [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew funds. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The weekly price increases of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.18%, and 0.31% respectively [6]. 4. Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates decreased, and the yield spread widened [9]. 5. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis narrowed [13][14]. 7. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than on June 3, and medium - to - long - term yields decreased [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply in the pig market is sufficient, with an increase in the number of pigs for sale from the breeding side. The demand has entered the off - season due to rising temperatures, and the slaughtering enterprises' operation rate has room to decline seasonally. Overall, the pig market has no obvious boost and is expected to maintain a weak trend [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13090, down 115 or - 0.9%; LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 13460, down 145 or - 1.1%; LH2511 closed at 13335, down 75 or - 0.6% [2][4]. - Spot: The national average commodity pig slaughter price was 14.31 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan or - 0.6%; the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan or - 0.8% [2][4]. 3.2 Monthly Spread, Basis, and Warehouse Receipts - Spread: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 370, down 30; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 125, up 70 [11]. - Basis: The basis for July was 830, down 485; the basis for September was 460, down 455 [11]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 475, an increase of 475 [11]. 3.3 Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglet market: The average price of weaned piglets was 486.19 yuan/head, down 19.38 yuan/head from last week. The piglet market continued to be weak, and the enthusiasm for replenishment declined. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, remaining flat in recent weeks, with low market replenishment enthusiasm [19]. - Commodity pig inventory: It is expected that the inventory of commodity pigs in June may decrease, and the inventory of large pigs over 140 kg has decreased [19]. 3.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread - National average: The weekly average standard - fat price spread was - 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.04 yuan/kg wider than last week. The prices of both standard and fat pigs decreased, with an increase in the supply of standard pigs and restricted movement of fat pigs between regions [23]. - Future trend: As the temperature rises, the demand for fat pigs will be further limited, and the standard - fat price spread may narrow [23]. 3.5 Slaughtering End - Slaughtering operation rate: It was 28.9%, down 0.45 percentage points from last week. The market demand declined, and the operation rate of slaughtering enterprises is expected to continue to decline [26]. - Fresh - meat sales rate: The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 88.36%, down 0.89 percentage points from last week, with slower fresh - meat sales [26]. - Frozen - meat storage rate: The frozen - meat storage rate of domestic key slaughtering enterprises was 17.32%, a slight increase of 0.04%. The trading volume of frozen meat was slow, and there was still involuntary storage in some areas [26]. 3.6 White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Market There is no clear summary information about white - striped pork and the wholesale market in the report, only some price and arrival - volume data are presented. 3.7 Profit and Cost - Self - breeding and self - raising: The weekly average profit was 94.98 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. - Purchasing piglets for breeding: The weekly average profit was 39.50 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. The improvement in profit was mainly driven by the decline in feed costs and the relatively stable pig prices [35]. 3.8 Market Information Summary - Supply: Some enterprises accelerated the slaughter of large - weight pigs, and the overall supply in June increased, with a loose market supply [38]. - Demand: As the temperature rises, it has entered the consumption off - season, and there is no holiday boost. The slaughtering volume still has room to decline [38]. - Inventory: The storage capacity of slaughtering enterprises is at a low level, and some unsold products are involuntarily stored [38]. - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [38]. - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions [38]. - Market sentiment: The overall sentiment is pessimistic due to large supply and weak demand [38].

Report Overview - Report Name: Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report - Report Date: June 6, 2025 - Researcher: Gao Guangqi - Company: Huajin Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For iron ore, the iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Although the steel mill's sinter powder inventory is low, the raw material side is expected to have limited room for continuous recovery due to the expected weakening of rigid demand [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, and there is no continuous rebound momentum for both spot and futures prices. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply - side reduction [40]. - In the third quarter, it is difficult for the black commodities to have a continuous upward performance [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Overseas Supply - Australia and Brazil are gradually entering the shipping peak season. The current shipment volume has increased by 124.5 tons to 2,830.62 tons. The shipment volume from non - Australia and Brazil regions has increased significantly, rising by 140.9 tons to about 600.4 tons this week. The arrival volume in the third quarter is expected to be at an average level [4]. Four Major Mines' Shipment - Fortescue's iron ore shipment in FY25Q3 reached 46.1 million tons, a 7% decrease quarter - on - quarter, with a shipment target of 190 - 200 million tons for the 2025 fiscal year. - Vale's iron ore production in 25Q1 was 67.66 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 325 - 335 million tons. - Rio Tinto's iron ore production in 25Q1 was 69.77 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 323 - 338 million tons. - BHP's Pilbara business iron ore production in FY25Q3 was 67.8 million tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 282 - 294 million tons [14]. Demand - This week, the iron - water production remained stable at around 241.8 tons, with a decrease of 0.1 tons. It is expected to remain volatile at a high level. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has declined, and the port clearance volume has remained at a high level [19]. Inventory - The sinter powder inventory has continued to decline, and the total port inventory has decreased slightly. This week, the total port inventory decreased by 39.89 tons to 13,826.69 tons. - The steel mill's imported sinter powder inventory decreased by 48.48 tons to 1,162.04 tons this week. Attention should be paid to the dynamic balance of steel mill profits and production changes [24][27]. Spot - Futures Structure - The spot - futures prices have fluctuated widely. It is expected that the black commodities will not have a continuous upward performance in the third quarter [29]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index has been fluctuating at a low level, with no obvious upward or downward trend this week [36]. Relationship with Non - Mainstream Region Shipment - The non - Australia and Brazil region's shipment volume has increased significantly this week [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - The iron - water production is expected to remain volatile at a high level. This week, it remained stable. The third round of coke price reduction of 70 yuan/ton has been implemented, and coke profits have continued to be under pressure [44]. Coking Coal Inventory - The independent coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased by 27.41 tons to 818.92 tons this week, and the steel mill's coking coal inventory decreased by 15.88 tons to 770.91 tons. - The port's imported coking coal inventory increased by 9.93 tons to 131.02 tons this week, and the mine's clean coal inventory reached a new high [47][50]. Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, and although the futures price has rebounded, it is difficult to see a substantial turning point in the short term [55]. Coke Inventory - The third round of coke price reduction of 70 yuan/ton has been implemented, and the coke inventory available days for steel mills have continued to decline. - This week, the total coke inventory remained stable, and the iron - water production decreased by 0.1 tons to 241.80 tons. The average national coking profit this week was about - 19 yuan/ton [58][63]. Coke Term Structure - Both the coke spot and futures prices have dropped significantly, the basis has narrowed, and the overall structure is at par [67].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the black metal market rebounded slightly after a significant decline. Demand is gradually entering the off - season and is expected to remain under pressure. With a high degree of uncertainty in the macro - environment and insufficient market speculation sentiment, prices are expected to have further downside potential [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply - MySteel's weekly data shows that the total output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons to 218.46 tons this week, with electric furnace output falling by 0.59 tons and blast furnace output dropping by 6.46 tons. The SAC旬ly data indicates that steel production is at a high level. With good steel mill profits, overall production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10]. 3.2 Demand - The apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly this week, showing overall weakness. It is expected that demand will be hard to show strong performance in the third quarter. As demand enters the off - season, it will continue to be under pressure. The high capacity utilization rate of cement clinker reflects some support from the infrastructure sector [17]. 3.3 Inventory - The total rebar inventory continued to decline slightly this week. The rebar mill inventory decreased by 1.60 tons to about 184.86 tons, and the social inventory dropped by 8.97 tons to 385.62 tons. The total inventory fell by 10.57 tons to 570.48 tons. The SAC旬ly data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises remains at the average level [23]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost is around 2,750 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is about 2,800 yuan/ton. The average含税 cost of steel billets from mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,862 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 27 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of common square billets on June 4th (2,900 yuan/ton), steel mills have an average profit of 38 yuan/ton [27]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices continued to decline, while spot prices fell less, leading to an expansion of the basis. The Shanghai Zhongtian rebar spot price dropped from 3,120 yuan to 3,110 yuan, and the Tangshan Qian'an steel billet price decreased from 2,920 yuan to 2,880 yuan [3][30][31]. 3.6 Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore prices are oscillating at a high level, and the ratio of the main rebar contract to iron ore futures remains at a low level. With weak real - world demand for finished products, the ferrous metal market is expected to have limited upside potential [37]. 3.7 Statistical Bureau - Related Data - From January to April, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 10.3% and 23.8% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.4 percentage points compared with January - March, while the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 0.6 percentage points [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net injected 65.66 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2509 contract is near the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is fluctuating at a high level, the interest rate is still in a low - level range, and there is limited upside space in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term investors can buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. The US Treasury announced the results of its latest Treasury bond repurchase operation, with a scale of up to $10 billion, the largest single - time Treasury bond repurchase operation in US Treasury history [4]. - **Treasury Bond Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net injected 65.66 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. The market price is fluctuating at a high level, the interest rate is in a low - level range, with limited upside space in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term investors can buy on dips [3]. II. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a range. The TS2509 contract closed at 102.396, down 0.01%; the TF2509 contract closed at 106.02, down 0.03%; the T2509 contract closed at 108.725, down 0.11%; the TL2509 contract closed at 119.41, down 0.16% [5]. III. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates decreased, and the yield spread narrowed [8]. IV. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of long - term Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, presenting arbitrage opportunities [11]. V. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures and their basis both narrowed [12]. VI. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure has flattened compared to May 28th, with medium - to - long - term yields decreasing [18].