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华金期货国债期货市场周报-20250610
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 03:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew 67.17 billion yuan last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2509 contract is near the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. - In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow. After the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, the growth rate accelerated significantly. Despite having two fewer working days year - on - year, imports and exports and exports increased by 2.7% and 6.3% year - on - year respectively. The total value of China - US imports and exports was 285.51 billion yuan, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.67%, and the decline was 0.58 percentage points narrower than in April. Citigroup postponed its forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and expects three interest rate cuts of 75 basis points this year, revised from the previous forecast of 100 basis points [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow, and the growth rate accelerated after the China - US economic and trade high - level talks. Citigroup postponed the forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and revised the expected interest rate cut amount [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew funds. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The weekly price increases of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.18%, and 0.31% respectively [6]. 4. Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates decreased, and the yield spread widened [9]. 5. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis narrowed [13][14]. 7. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than on June 3, and medium - to - long - term yields decreased [19].
华金期货生猪周报-20250609
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 11:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply in the pig market is sufficient, with an increase in the number of pigs for sale from the breeding side. The demand has entered the off - season due to rising temperatures, and the slaughtering enterprises' operation rate has room to decline seasonally. Overall, the pig market has no obvious boost and is expected to maintain a weak trend [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13090, down 115 or - 0.9%; LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 13460, down 145 or - 1.1%; LH2511 closed at 13335, down 75 or - 0.6% [2][4]. - Spot: The national average commodity pig slaughter price was 14.31 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan or - 0.6%; the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan or - 0.8% [2][4]. 3.2 Monthly Spread, Basis, and Warehouse Receipts - Spread: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 370, down 30; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 125, up 70 [11]. - Basis: The basis for July was 830, down 485; the basis for September was 460, down 455 [11]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 475, an increase of 475 [11]. 3.3 Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglet market: The average price of weaned piglets was 486.19 yuan/head, down 19.38 yuan/head from last week. The piglet market continued to be weak, and the enthusiasm for replenishment declined. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, remaining flat in recent weeks, with low market replenishment enthusiasm [19]. - Commodity pig inventory: It is expected that the inventory of commodity pigs in June may decrease, and the inventory of large pigs over 140 kg has decreased [19]. 3.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread - National average: The weekly average standard - fat price spread was - 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.04 yuan/kg wider than last week. The prices of both standard and fat pigs decreased, with an increase in the supply of standard pigs and restricted movement of fat pigs between regions [23]. - Future trend: As the temperature rises, the demand for fat pigs will be further limited, and the standard - fat price spread may narrow [23]. 3.5 Slaughtering End - Slaughtering operation rate: It was 28.9%, down 0.45 percentage points from last week. The market demand declined, and the operation rate of slaughtering enterprises is expected to continue to decline [26]. - Fresh - meat sales rate: The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 88.36%, down 0.89 percentage points from last week, with slower fresh - meat sales [26]. - Frozen - meat storage rate: The frozen - meat storage rate of domestic key slaughtering enterprises was 17.32%, a slight increase of 0.04%. The trading volume of frozen meat was slow, and there was still involuntary storage in some areas [26]. 3.6 White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Market There is no clear summary information about white - striped pork and the wholesale market in the report, only some price and arrival - volume data are presented. 3.7 Profit and Cost - Self - breeding and self - raising: The weekly average profit was 94.98 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. - Purchasing piglets for breeding: The weekly average profit was 39.50 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. The improvement in profit was mainly driven by the decline in feed costs and the relatively stable pig prices [35]. 3.8 Market Information Summary - Supply: Some enterprises accelerated the slaughter of large - weight pigs, and the overall supply in June increased, with a loose market supply [38]. - Demand: As the temperature rises, it has entered the consumption off - season, and there is no holiday boost. The slaughtering volume still has room to decline [38]. - Inventory: The storage capacity of slaughtering enterprises is at a low level, and some unsold products are involuntarily stored [38]. - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [38]. - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions [38]. - Market sentiment: The overall sentiment is pessimistic due to large supply and weak demand [38].
华金期货黑色原料周报-20250606
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 09:45
Report Overview - Report Name: Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report - Report Date: June 6, 2025 - Researcher: Gao Guangqi - Company: Huajin Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For iron ore, the iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Although the steel mill's sinter powder inventory is low, the raw material side is expected to have limited room for continuous recovery due to the expected weakening of rigid demand [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, and there is no continuous rebound momentum for both spot and futures prices. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply - side reduction [40]. - In the third quarter, it is difficult for the black commodities to have a continuous upward performance [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Overseas Supply - Australia and Brazil are gradually entering the shipping peak season. The current shipment volume has increased by 124.5 tons to 2,830.62 tons. The shipment volume from non - Australia and Brazil regions has increased significantly, rising by 140.9 tons to about 600.4 tons this week. The arrival volume in the third quarter is expected to be at an average level [4]. Four Major Mines' Shipment - Fortescue's iron ore shipment in FY25Q3 reached 46.1 million tons, a 7% decrease quarter - on - quarter, with a shipment target of 190 - 200 million tons for the 2025 fiscal year. - Vale's iron ore production in 25Q1 was 67.66 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 325 - 335 million tons. - Rio Tinto's iron ore production in 25Q1 was 69.77 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 323 - 338 million tons. - BHP's Pilbara business iron ore production in FY25Q3 was 67.8 million tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 282 - 294 million tons [14]. Demand - This week, the iron - water production remained stable at around 241.8 tons, with a decrease of 0.1 tons. It is expected to remain volatile at a high level. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has declined, and the port clearance volume has remained at a high level [19]. Inventory - The sinter powder inventory has continued to decline, and the total port inventory has decreased slightly. This week, the total port inventory decreased by 39.89 tons to 13,826.69 tons. - The steel mill's imported sinter powder inventory decreased by 48.48 tons to 1,162.04 tons this week. Attention should be paid to the dynamic balance of steel mill profits and production changes [24][27]. Spot - Futures Structure - The spot - futures prices have fluctuated widely. It is expected that the black commodities will not have a continuous upward performance in the third quarter [29]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index has been fluctuating at a low level, with no obvious upward or downward trend this week [36]. Relationship with Non - Mainstream Region Shipment - The non - Australia and Brazil region's shipment volume has increased significantly this week [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - The iron - water production is expected to remain volatile at a high level. This week, it remained stable. The third round of coke price reduction of 70 yuan/ton has been implemented, and coke profits have continued to be under pressure [44]. Coking Coal Inventory - The independent coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased by 27.41 tons to 818.92 tons this week, and the steel mill's coking coal inventory decreased by 15.88 tons to 770.91 tons. - The port's imported coking coal inventory increased by 9.93 tons to 131.02 tons this week, and the mine's clean coal inventory reached a new high [47][50]. Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, and although the futures price has rebounded, it is difficult to see a substantial turning point in the short term [55]. Coke Inventory - The third round of coke price reduction of 70 yuan/ton has been implemented, and the coke inventory available days for steel mills have continued to decline. - This week, the total coke inventory remained stable, and the iron - water production decreased by 0.1 tons to 241.80 tons. The average national coking profit this week was about - 19 yuan/ton [58][63]. Coke Term Structure - Both the coke spot and futures prices have dropped significantly, the basis has narrowed, and the overall structure is at par [67].
华金期货螺纹周报-20250605
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 10:36
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the black metal market rebounded slightly after a significant decline. Demand is gradually entering the off - season and is expected to remain under pressure. With a high degree of uncertainty in the macro - environment and insufficient market speculation sentiment, prices are expected to have further downside potential [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply - MySteel's weekly data shows that the total output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons to 218.46 tons this week, with electric furnace output falling by 0.59 tons and blast furnace output dropping by 6.46 tons. The SAC旬ly data indicates that steel production is at a high level. With good steel mill profits, overall production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10]. 3.2 Demand - The apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly this week, showing overall weakness. It is expected that demand will be hard to show strong performance in the third quarter. As demand enters the off - season, it will continue to be under pressure. The high capacity utilization rate of cement clinker reflects some support from the infrastructure sector [17]. 3.3 Inventory - The total rebar inventory continued to decline slightly this week. The rebar mill inventory decreased by 1.60 tons to about 184.86 tons, and the social inventory dropped by 8.97 tons to 385.62 tons. The total inventory fell by 10.57 tons to 570.48 tons. The SAC旬ly data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises remains at the average level [23]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost is around 2,750 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is about 2,800 yuan/ton. The average含税 cost of steel billets from mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,862 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 27 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of common square billets on June 4th (2,900 yuan/ton), steel mills have an average profit of 38 yuan/ton [27]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices continued to decline, while spot prices fell less, leading to an expansion of the basis. The Shanghai Zhongtian rebar spot price dropped from 3,120 yuan to 3,110 yuan, and the Tangshan Qian'an steel billet price decreased from 2,920 yuan to 2,880 yuan [3][30][31]. 3.6 Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore prices are oscillating at a high level, and the ratio of the main rebar contract to iron ore futures remains at a low level. With weak real - world demand for finished products, the ferrous metal market is expected to have limited upside potential [37]. 3.7 Statistical Bureau - Related Data - From January to April, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 10.3% and 23.8% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.4 percentage points compared with January - March, while the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 0.6 percentage points [41].
华金期货国债期货市场周报-20250604
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 03:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net injected 65.66 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2509 contract is near the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is fluctuating at a high level, the interest rate is still in a low - level range, and there is limited upside space in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term investors can buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. The US Treasury announced the results of its latest Treasury bond repurchase operation, with a scale of up to $10 billion, the largest single - time Treasury bond repurchase operation in US Treasury history [4]. - **Treasury Bond Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net injected 65.66 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. The market price is fluctuating at a high level, the interest rate is in a low - level range, with limited upside space in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term investors can buy on dips [3]. II. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a range. The TS2509 contract closed at 102.396, down 0.01%; the TF2509 contract closed at 106.02, down 0.03%; the T2509 contract closed at 108.725, down 0.11%; the TL2509 contract closed at 119.41, down 0.16% [5]. III. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates decreased, and the yield spread narrowed [8]. IV. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of long - term Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, presenting arbitrage opportunities [11]. V. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures and their basis both narrowed [12]. VI. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure has flattened compared to May 28th, with medium - to - long - term yields decreasing [18].
华金期货生猪周报-20250603
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the pig market remains sufficient, with second - fattening and large pigs from散户 being sold successively, and scale farms expected to reduce supply at the beginning of the month. After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand will decline significantly, and as temperatures rise, it enters the consumption off - season. The pig market has no obvious boost and is mainly in a weak consolidation trend [2]. - The LH2509 contract is mainly in a recent consolidation trend, while the spot price rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of LH2507 is 13,205, with no change; LH2509 is 13,605, up 90 (0.7%); LH2511 is 13,410, up 230 (1.7%) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The national commodity pig出栏 price is 14.43 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg (1.5%); in Henan, it is 14.6 yuan/kg, up 0.38 yuan/kg (2.7%). The出栏 average weight of sample enterprises is 124.13 kg, unchanged [2]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The 09 - 07 spread is 400, up 90; the 11 - 09 spread is - 195, up 160. The 7 - month basis is 1315, up 300; the 9 - month basis is 915, up 210 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of pig warehouse receipts is 0, a decrease of 663 [2]. Piglet and Sow Market - **Piglets**: The average price of weaned piglets is 503.57 yuan/head, down 6.91 yuan/head from last week. The piglet market has declined slightly. Some farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment has decreased [20]. - **Sows**: The average market price of 50KG binary sows is 1641 yuan/head, remaining flat in recent weeks. The market replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and large - scale farms mostly keep sows for self - use, with limited transaction volume [20]. - **Pig Inventory**: From September to December last year, the inventory of breeding sows increased monthly, and the pig production capacity recovered. It is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs in May will continue to increase month - on - month [20]. Slaughter and Consumption - **Slaughter**: The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate is 29.35%, up 0.8 percentage points, mainly driven by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughter enterprises is 89.25%, up 0.16 percentage points. The frozen - product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises is 17.28%, unchanged from last week [28]. - **Consumption**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, there is no short - term holiday boost, and as temperatures rise, it enters the consumption off - season. The slaughter rate still has room to decline [40]. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 91.77 yuan/head, a decrease of 12.67 yuan/head from last week; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is 36.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 10.30 yuan/head from last week [37]. Market Information - **Supply**: The proportion of large - weight pig sources is relatively high, and second - fattening pigs are continuously being sold, so the market supply remains loose [40]. - **Policy**: The "Measures for the Administration of Licensing for the Production and Operation of Breeding Livestock and Poultry" will be implemented on July 1, 2025. There are also market rumors about guiding the pig industry, such as not increasing sows, reducing the weight of fattening pigs to 120KG, and not encouraging second - fattening [40]. - **Disease**: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions [40]. - **Market Sentiment**: Pig prices are fluctuating, showing a short - term stable and weak trend [40].
全球糖市纵览(2025、6、3)
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:56
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market focus has shifted to the 2025/26 sugar season. Currently, many institutions expect Brazil and India to increase production, leading to an overall increase in global sugar production and a supply surplus [6]. - In China, imports decreased in Q1, domestic sugar sales were fast, and inventory pressure was low. Although the current import volume is relatively low, with the recent issuance of import licenses, there may be a surge in imports in Q3 [6]. - Given the weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a short - term bearish view is recommended for Zhengzhou sugar futures [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus - Multiple institutions expect Brazil's sugar production to increase year - on - year in the 2025/26 new sugar season [4]. - Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season [5]. - Multiple institutions expect India's sugar production to increase year - on - year in the 2025/26 new sugar season [6]. - In China, the sales - to - production ratio is at a high level in the same period over the years, and sugar production is expected to slightly increase in the 2025/26 season [6]. Price Information - As of the first half of May, Brazil's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 3.99 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.68% [6]. - From the first to the fourth week of May, Brazil exported 1.5723 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year decrease of 779,800 tons or 23.15%. The number of waiting ships at ports increased [6]. - Currently, many institutions expect Brazil's sugar production to increase in the 2025/26 season [6]. - India's Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for June 2025 is 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons [6]. - The NFCSF expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic consumption needs in key months from October to November 2025 [6]. - In April, China's cumulative sugar sales ratio was 65.22%, the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [6]. - At the end of May, the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 6,025 yuan/ton, Guangxi Sugar - making Group quoted between 6,090 - 6,190 yuan/ton, Yunnan Sugar - making Group quoted between 5,880 - 5,920 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,360 - 6,880 yuan/ton. The inventory demand for the summer consumption peak is not obvious, and the overall spot trading is average [6]. - The ICE - ethanol - to - sugar price spread in Brazil is 2.62, with minor fluctuations [6]. - The net long position of CFTC has not changed much recently [6]. - The import profit has increased [6]. Global Sugar Supply and Demand and Export Availability - According to the USDA's May global supply - demand report, global sugar production is expected to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million metric tons. The increase in production in Brazil and India will offset the decrease in the EU. Exports are expected to decline mainly due to reduced shipments from the EU and Thailand. Ending inventory is expected to increase mainly because of India and China [9]. - Brazil: Due to favorable weather, production is expected to increase by 1 million tons to a record 44.7 million tons. The sugar - making ratio will drop from 51% in the 2024/25 season to 49%. Sugar consumption will slightly decline, and exports will increase due to increased production [9]. - India: Due to favorable weather and expanded planting area, production is expected to surge by 25% to 35.3 million tons. The growth of the food service industry will drive up sugar consumption, and the increased supply will boost both exports and inventory [9]. - Thailand: An increase in sugarcane production and sugar extraction rate will drive a 2% increase in production to 10.3 million tons. The slowdown in demand from export - oriented food processing enterprises will slow down consumption growth. Facing competition from major exporters like Brazil, exports are expected to decline, and inventory will remain flat [9]. - China: The expansion of sugarcane planting and improved growth conditions for sugar beets are expected to increase production by 500,000 tons to 11.5 million tons. Despite domestic production growth, imports need to be increased to balance supply and demand. Consumption and exports remain stable, and inventory will increase as consumption slowly recovers [9]. - EU: A 10% reduction in sugar beet planting area in major producing regions such as France and Germany will lead to a 9% decline in total production to 15 million tons. Imports will increase due to reduced production, exports are expected to decline, and consumption and ending inventory will remain basically the same [9]. Regional Sugar Production and Supply - Demand Details - Brazil: An analysis by JOB Economics and Planning predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2025/26 season will remain at the 2024/25 season's level of 35.1 million tons. Sugar production is expected to increase by 5% to 46 million tons, close to the record in the 2023/24 season. This growth is due to an increased sugar - making ratio, but the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to decline by 1.45% to 673 million tons [22]. - India: As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 season, there were 19 sugar mills still in operation, a year - on - year decrease of 4. The crushed sugarcane was 275.857 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 35.655 million tons or 11.44%. Sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.77 million tons or 18.33% [28]. - Thailand: As of March 23, 2025, in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 91.6207 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9598 million tons or 12.2%. The sugar content in sugarcane was 12.61%, a year - on - year increase of 0.27%. The sugar extraction rate was 10.888%, a year - on - year increase of 0.227%. Sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2698 million tons or 14.58% [36]. - United States: The U.S. sugar supply - demand balance shows changes in various indicators such as beginning inventory, production, import, export, consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2019/20 to 2025/26 [41]. China's Sugar Market - China's sugar market shows data on single - month sugar sales, industrial inventory, single - month sugar production, cumulative sales - to - production ratio, monthly imports, and import prices [44][46].
华金期货股指期货市场周报-20250603
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 10:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term index fluctuates, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] - A - share market shows a situation where the macro environment is moderately loose, the profit situation has improved, but the capital situation is unfavorable, and the overall valuation is at a medium - low level, which is conducive to the long - term performance of the index [10][12][13] Summary by Directory I. Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month [4] - **Overseas News**: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon pointed out the risk of stagflation [4] - **Market Situation**: Last week, the CSI 300 index fluctuated weakly with low trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 100.2 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 100 million yuan. The domestic economy is weakly stabilizing, and fiscal and monetary policies remain loose. Technically, the CSI 300 index is above the 40 - day moving average, with low short - term trading volume and medium - low long - term valuation [4] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term index fluctuates, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] II. Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price and Volume**: Index futures fluctuated weakly with low market trading volume [7] - **Basis**: The current index basis rate has declined, and there are no arbitrage opportunities in the index [7] - **Return**: Since 2024, Shanghai Composite 50 large - cap stocks have risen 16.86%, and CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 2.93% [7] - **Contract Data**: The table shows the closing prices, weekly returns, trading volumes, open interests, and trading volume/open interest ratios of IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 contracts last week and this week [6] III. Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro**: In April, the manufacturing PMI (49.4) was below the boom - bust line, the interest rate (1.72) was below 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8%, with moderate relaxation [10] - **Profit**: In the first quarter of A - shares, the year - on - year corporate net profit changed from a decline to an increase compared with the end of last year, and the net profit growth rate of the CSI 300 slightly declined [10] - **Interest Rate**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds was 1.72%, up 1 BP from last week [10] IV. Index Capital and Valuation Changes - **Capital**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 100 million yuan in the past 5 trading days; the cumulative net outflow of main funds of A - shares was 100.2 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [13] - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling P/E ratio of the CSI 300 is 11.73, with a percentile of 38%; the P/B ratio is 1.29, with a percentile of 9% [12][13] V. Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals** - **Macro Environment**: Long - term and medium - term monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing (bullish) [17] - **Profit Situation**: A - share corporate profits increased year - on - year in the first quarter (bullish) [17] - **Capital Situation**: Margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish) [17] - **Valuation Situation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the index in the long - term (bullish) [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is near the medium - long - term moving average, with low trading volume, and short - term fluctuations are neutral [16]
华金期货螺纹周报-20250529
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 13:03
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Weekly Report on Rebar by Huajin Futures, dated May 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the black market declined significantly. Demand is entering the off - season and is expected to be under pressure. With high macro - environmental uncertainty and insufficient market speculation sentiment, rebar prices are expected to have further downside [3] Group 4: Supply - Mysteel's rebar production this week dropped by 5.97 tons to 225.51 tons, with electric furnace production falling by 3.49 tons and blast furnace production by 2.48 tons. The SAC steel production data shows high output levels. With good steel mill profits, production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10] Group 5: Demand - The apparent demand for rebar remained stable this week but was weak overall. Third - quarter demand is expected to be lackluster, and as it enters the off - season, demand will be under pressure. The high capacity utilization rate of cement clinker indicates some support from the infrastructure sector [3][15] Group 6: Inventory - Rebar's total inventory decreased slightly this week. The total inventory decreased by 23.17 tons, with mill inventory down 1.30 tons to 186.46 tons and social inventory down 21.87 tons to 394.59 tons. SAC data shows that member enterprises' steel inventories are at the average level [3][19] Group 7: Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost this week is around 2,770 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is 2,850 yuan/ton. The average billet cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,889 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the May 28th billet price of 2,900 yuan/ton, steel mills have an average profit of 11 yuan/ton [24] Group 8: Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices have been falling, and spot prices have followed suit. The basis has widened. The current price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of Tangshan Qian'an billet is 2,920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week [3][26][27] Group 9: Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore is oscillating at a high level, and the rebar - to - iron ore ratio of the main contract remains low. With weak real - world demand for finished products, the ferrous metals market is expected to show limited performance [33] Group 10: Statistical Bureau Data - From January to April, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 10.3% and 23.8% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.4 percentage points compared to January - March, while the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 0.6 percentage points [37] Group 11: Upcoming Important Events - May 29, 20:30: US Q1 real GDP quarterly revised value - May 30, 20:30: US April PCE - May 31, 09:30: China May PMI - June 2, 22:00: US May ISM manufacturing index - June 5, 20:15: Eurozone interest rate decision [3]
华金期货国债期货市场周报-20250527
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 05:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly last week and remains at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. In terms of operation, the Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upward space is limited. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: Moody's decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The international community warns that global governments must curb the rise of public debt due to the unsustainable fiscal path caused by rising interest rates [4] - **Outlook for Treasury Bonds**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, the interest rate is in a low range, and the upward space is limited in the medium and long term. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures showed a weak downward trend. The TS2509 contract rose 0.03%, the TF2509 contract rose 0.14%, the T2509 contract rose 0.18%, and the TL2509 contract rose 0.26% [6] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates rose, and the yield spread widened [10] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage of Treasury Bond CTD Bonds**: This week, the IRR of long-term Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating an arbitrage opportunity [13] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF-T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [14] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than that on May 20th, and medium and long-term yields have risen [19]