东海证券：晨会纪要-20240926

Key Recommendations - The proportion of real estate-related assets continues to decline, while individual loan risks are rising moderately. As of the end of Q2, listed banks' real estate-related assets are approximately 50 trillion yuan, accounting for about 29% of total loans. The structure includes personal housing loans (20%), corporate loans (5%), credit risk-bearing assets outside loans (2%), and non-credit risk-bearing assets (2%) [6][9][11] - The price of photovoltaic silicon materials has stabilized at the bottom, and the price recovery of wind turbine equipment is expected to continue. The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a decline of 1.67% in the week of September 16-20, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.99 percentage points [12][13] Financial News - The People's Bank of China announced three policies to support high-quality economic development, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which will provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market [17] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released opinions on deepening the reform of the merger and acquisition market for listed companies, focusing on supporting companies in strategic emerging industries and enhancing regulatory tolerance [20] Real Estate Industry Analysis - As of the end of Q2 2024, the debt financing scale of the real estate industry is 57.11 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 645.5 billion yuan compared to the end of Q1. The residential sector saw a decline of about 500 billion yuan, reflecting weak housing demand and increased prepayment willingness [7][8] - The asset quality of corporate real estate loans continues to improve, with the weighted average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for corporate real estate loans decreasing from 4.26% at the end of 2023 to 4.04% by mid-2024. Conversely, the NPL ratio for personal housing loans rose from 0.47% to 0.56% during the same period [9][11] New Energy Sector Analysis - In the photovoltaic sector, silicon material prices have shown slight increases, while prices for silicon wafers and battery cells have remained stable. However, component prices have continued to decline due to inventory accumulation and competitive pricing strategies [13][14] - The wind power sector is experiencing a recovery in equipment prices, with an average bidding price for onshore wind turbine units around 2064.6 yuan/kW. The market demand for wind power is expected to remain strong, supporting the performance recovery of turbine manufacturers [15][16] Market Data - As of September 24, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2863.13 points, up 4.15%, marking the largest single-day increase since July 2020. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw significant gains [28][22] - The financing balance in the market is reported at 1.361 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4.45% [28]