中原证券：晨会聚焦-20240926

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut, marking the beginning of a monetary easing cycle, which is expected to stimulate economic recovery and positively influence various sectors, including real estate and consumer goods [7][14][13] - The A-share market is showing signs of recovery, driven by multiple favorable policies and market sentiment, with specific sectors like internet services, cultural media, and medical devices being recommended for short-term investment opportunities [6][10][9] Market Performance - The A-share market has experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 2,896.31, reflecting a 1.16% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.21% to 8,537.73 [2] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are currently at 12.26 and 26.45, respectively, indicating that the market is still in a relatively low valuation zone suitable for medium to long-term investments [6][11] Economic Policies - The People's Bank of China has announced a 3,000 billion MLF operation with a median bid rate of 2.00%, down from the previous 2.30%, aimed at boosting liquidity in the market [4][6] - The State Development and Reform Commission reported that the total subsidy applications approved for the nationwide vehicle replacement program have reached nearly 11 billion yuan [4][6] Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes the potential recovery in the housing market due to the Federal Reserve's rate cut, which is expected to boost home sales and subsequently increase demand for home-related products [14][15] - The new materials sector is underperforming compared to the broader market, with a reported decline in the new materials index by 4.63%, while basic metal prices have shown a slight increase [16] - The gaming sector is highlighted for its potential recovery, particularly following the successful launch of the game "Black Myth: Wukong," which has garnered significant attention and sales [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from the easing monetary policy, including real estate, consumer goods, and technology, particularly those involved in AI and semiconductor industries [7][18] - Specific companies within the home furnishing export chain are recommended for investment, as they are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in U.S. housing sales [14][15]