宏观大类日报：关注市场情绪改善的持续性

Group 1: Market Analysis - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, indicating ongoing economic risks in the U.S.[2] - Historical analysis from 1957 shows that during rate-cut cycles, commodities generally face downward pressure, but gold tends to yield positive returns and outperform other commodities[2]. - Recent PMI data from the EU and India shows varying degrees of adjustment, raising concerns about recession risks[2]. Group 2: Policy Impacts - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market[2]. - A series of financial support policies were introduced, including a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase loan program aimed at boosting market confidence[2]. - Following these announcements, the Shanghai Composite Index surged by 4.15%, marking its largest single-day gain in over four years[2]. Group 3: Sector Performance - In the commodities sector, black metals are supported by policy adjustments, while agricultural products remain neutral, with short-term support for canola meal prices due to anti-dumping investigations[2]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to maintain an upward trend, while energy and chemical sectors should monitor developments in the Middle East[3]. - The overall sentiment in the market has improved, but caution is advised regarding the sustainability of these trends and potential fiscal policy adjustments[2].