万联证券：万联晨会-20240926

Core Views - The report highlights a series of policies aimed at boosting consumer spending and stabilizing the real estate market, including a reduction in mortgage rates and down payment ratios for second homes [6][7][9] - The policies are expected to alleviate the financial burden on residents, thereby enhancing their consumption capacity, particularly in the real estate and consumer sectors [8][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation and effectiveness of these policies to ensure sustained recovery in consumer confidence and spending [7][8] Market Review - On September 25, the A-share market saw major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.16% to 2896.31 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.21% [4][5] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 11,569.86 billion RMB, while southbound funds recorded a net sell-off of 5.38 billion HKD [4][5] - In the international market, the Dow Jones fell by 0.70%, while the Nasdaq saw a slight increase of 0.04% [3][4] Important News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued guidelines on implementing an employment-first strategy to promote high-quality and full employment, focusing on enhancing the coordination between economic development and employment [5][6] - Key measures include improving the matching of education supply with talent demand, expanding employment channels for key groups, and enhancing public employment services [5][6] Investment Insights - The report suggests that the recent policies will likely stimulate both the stock and real estate markets, benefiting consumer sectors such as liquor and home furnishings [8][9] - The introduction of stock repurchase and increase loan tools is expected to support companies with high dividend yields, potentially leading to a recovery in their valuations [8][9] - The report recommends focusing on cyclical leaders in the liquor and home furnishing industries, as well as high-quality stocks in the textile, light industry, and food and beverage sectors [8][9] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The real estate sector remains under pressure, but recent policies aim to stimulate demand by lowering mortgage rates and down payment requirements [9][10] - The extension of financial support policies for real estate companies is expected to alleviate their funding pressures and promote market stability [10][11] - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in the sector's fundamentals due to these policies, with a focus on monitoring transaction volumes and housing prices [9][10] Technology Sector Insights - The report discusses the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the technology sector, particularly for companies focused on breakthrough core technologies [11][12] - The regulatory framework is being adjusted to facilitate mergers and acquisitions, which could enhance industry concentration and competitiveness [11][12] - Companies with strong acquisition capabilities are encouraged to integrate "hard technology" firms to bolster their market position and drive innovation [11][12]