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媒体Ⅱ行业跟踪分析:互联网行业:业绩韧性凸显,加大股东回报
GF SECURITIES·2024-09-26 01:39

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" for the internet sector, with a focus on strong shareholder returns and resilient performance in 2024 [2]. Core Insights - The internet sector is experiencing a shift from growth to value, with companies like Tencent and Meituan showing robust shareholder returns through stock buybacks and dividends. Tencent has repurchased HKD 83.4 billion worth of shares, while Meituan has repurchased HKD 27.4 billion as of September 17, 2024 [2][14]. - The overall revenue growth model for 2024 is transitioning, with macroeconomic headwinds impacting sectors like financial payments, e-commerce, and brand advertising. However, content consumption remains resilient, driven by product cycles and strong performance from new game releases by Tencent and Bilibili [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of operational leverage and cost control, suggesting that many internet companies have room for improvement in their operating margins [27][35]. Summary by Sections Shareholder Returns - Internet companies have significantly increased shareholder returns over the past three years, with a notable rise in stock buybacks and dividends. Tencent and NetEase have shown stable and increasing trends in their shareholder return strategies [12][14]. - In 2024, Tencent's buyback amount reached HKD 52.35 billion, while NetEase's buyback was USD 447 million [12][14]. Revenue and Profit Performance - The report indicates a shift from growth to value, with companies focusing on high-quality development and adjusting their revenue structures. For instance, the online music sector is seeing a slowdown in live streaming, which is positively impacting overall revenue growth [27][35]. - Companies with strong overseas expansion strategies and product cycles, such as Bilibili and Pop Mart, are expected to see accelerated revenue growth [27]. Price Performance and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for internet companies range from 8x to 18x, with Tencent trading at a PE of 16x based on 2024 profit expectations. The recommendation is to focus on industry leaders with strong competitive positions and robust fundamentals [2][5]. - The report highlights the potential for significant upside in sectors closely tied to macroeconomic recovery, such as e-commerce and financial services, as consumer sentiment improves [5][27].