福耀玻璃：全球汽车玻璃龙头的复盘与展望

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fuyao Glass is "Outperform" [3][4]. Core Views - Fuyao Glass is positioned as a scarce asset favored by institutional funds due to its product upgrades, strong competitive landscape, overseas expansion capabilities, and high dividend yield [1][4]. - The automotive glass industry is characterized by high barriers to entry, heavy asset requirements, and long production processes, which provide Fuyao with a natural competitive advantage [1][4]. - The global automotive glass market is expected to reach a scale of 115 billion yuan by 2026, driven by the increasing value per vehicle and the penetration of high-value products [1][20]. Summary by Sections Current Market Context - The domestic automotive industry has entered a low-growth phase, with both fuel and new energy vehicles experiencing overcapacity and intensified competition [1][28]. - Fuyao Glass has established a global model for overseas expansion, with its U.S. factory achieving a profit margin exceeding 15% [1][28]. Industry Characteristics - The automotive glass sector has a long production chain and is capital and labor-intensive, which creates a high barrier to entry [1][4]. - The glass accounts for one-third of the vehicle's surface area, providing significant opportunities for smart applications and data output in the future [1][19]. Competitive Advantages - Fuyao Glass benefits from economies of scale, high automation, a vertically integrated supply chain, and competitive labor costs, which enhance its profitability [1][24]. - The company has a global market share of over 36% and a domestic market share exceeding 70%, with potential to increase to 40% in the medium to long term [1][22]. Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for Fuyao Glass is projected to grow from 39.98 billion yuan in 2024 to 53.23 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20.6% [2][3]. - The net profit forecast for the company is expected to reach 76.23 billion yuan in 2024, 88.09 billion yuan in 2025, and 100.86 billion yuan in 2026 [2][3]. Valuation - The reasonable valuation range for Fuyao Glass is set between 58.00 and 64.00 yuan, with a closing price of 52.30 yuan [3][4].