中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略徐驰：政策协同，多管齐下，全面呵护市场信心回升——9月24日国新办发布会解读-20240926

Group 1: Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market, with potential further reductions of 0.25-0.5 percentage points [2][3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 0.2 percentage points from 1.7% to 1.5%, which is expected to stimulate economic recovery and promote credit expansion [2][3] - A new monetary policy tool was introduced to support the stock market, allowing securities, fund, and insurance companies to swap assets for liquidity, with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan [5][6] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumer Finance - The central bank proposed to lower existing mortgage rates and unify the minimum down payment ratio for first and second homes to 15%, which is expected to ease the financial burden on residents and stimulate consumption [2][3] - The average expected reduction in existing mortgage rates is around 0.5 percentage points, which could alleviate repayment pressure and improve cash flow for households [2][3] Group 3: Capital Market Developments - The introduction of a stock repurchase and increase special re-loan program aims to provide banks with the ability to lend to listed companies and major shareholders for stock buybacks, with an initial quota of 300 billion yuan [5][6] - The policy aims to enhance market liquidity and stabilize stock prices, encouraging companies to signal confidence through share buybacks [5][6] Group 4: Industry-Specific Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable dividend-paying sectors such as public utilities and transportation, as well as technology segments like nuclear power and telecommunications, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [3][4] - In the cyclical sector, opportunities are identified in metals and energy, particularly in gold and industrial metals, due to geopolitical risks and manufacturing expansion [3][4] Group 5: Railway Industry Insights - The China National Railway Group faces significant debt pressure, with total liabilities reaching 6.21 trillion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.55% as of mid-2024 [6] - The report highlights the need for reform in the railway sector, suggesting that separating network operations from commercial operations could enhance efficiency and profitability [6]