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银行业事件点评：利率政策迎来调整，息差将保持基本稳定
Xiangcai Securities·2024-09-26 04:07

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The recent adjustment in interest rate policy, including a reduction in existing mortgage rates by approximately 0.5 percentage points, is expected to stabilize the net interest margin for commercial banks [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China has eliminated the lower limit on personal housing loan rates, leading to a further decrease in existing mortgage rates, which aligns with market expectations [2]. - The reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 20 basis points is anticipated to facilitate a symmetrical adjustment of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates, thereby maintaining the stability of banks' net interest margins [3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Adjustments - The central bank's recent measures to lower existing mortgage rates and the reverse repurchase rate are aimed at reducing the financial pressure on commercial banks from early mortgage repayments [2][3]. - The average new mortgage rate has decreased from 4% last September to 3.45% in June, reflecting a 57 basis point drop, which is in line with market expectations [2]. Banking Sector Performance - In the first eight months of the year, the increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 13.42 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 3.57 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a weak credit demand [3]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.54% in the second quarter, showing signs of stabilization due to previous interest rate adjustments and regulatory measures [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional banks with strong asset quality and sustainable performance, as well as state-owned large banks that offer significant dividend yields [6]. - The ongoing improvements in financial support for the real estate sector are expected to mitigate risks and stabilize the asset quality of banks [6].